Trump made the claim during a press exchange this week when reporters asked about his Middle East strategy amid pump prices exceeding $4.50 per gallon. He pushed back, telling reporters that gas prices had fallen “very substantially” that day and were “way down.” However, AAA data shows prices held near elevated levels before a 1-cent easing — well short of any substantial decline.

The numbers tell a different story. At Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, the national average sat near $3.05 to $3.20 per gallon. By late 2025 and early 2026, prices had pulled back to a low of around $2.81 in January 2026. Since then, the trajectory has moved in one direction.

March 2026 brought a monthly average of $3.64 per gallon. April climbed to roughly $4.10. By early May, prices had crossed $4.45 to $4.58, depending on the source. The most recent week alone added about 25 cents to the national average. Compared to May 2025, when regular averaged $3.14 to $3.26 per gallon, drivers are now paying more than $1.40 extra at the pump.

The primary driver is the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Military activity tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions disrupted an estimated 20% of global oil supply flows. Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel, with WTI trading near $94 to $95. Those crude levels feed directly into retail prices, since oil typically accounts for 50 to 60% of what consumers pay at the pump.

The Energy Information Administration has forecast that Brent could peak near $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 before easing, contingent on conflict resolution. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $5 to $12 per barrel due to elevated shipping costs and supply route disruptions.

Trump has offered forward-looking assurances throughout the conflict. He has told Americans that prices will “come crashing down” on several occasions once fighting ends and cited abundant global oil supplies as a buffer. He has also referenced post-conflict targets as low as $2 per gallon. Those claims are speculative and depend on how quickly the Strait of Hormuz disruptions unwind.

Presidents carry limited influence over short-term retail gas prices. Crude markets, refining margins, taxes, and distribution costs determine what consumers pay. The Trump administration has deployed Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases and Jones Act waivers to relieve some pressure, with mixed results.

The 2026 price trajectory echoes the 2022 spike under the Biden administration, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped push the national average above $5 per gallon. Wars tend to put pressure on energy markets. Prices moderated between 2023 and 2025 before the current geopolitical shock reversed that trend.

AAA data shows no week-over-week decline in the period Trump referenced. Month-over-month, prices rose roughly 40 cents. Year-over-year, they are up more than $1.40. The EIA’s weekly retail gasoline reports corroborate those figures.

Trump has taken credit for the decline from Biden-era highs that occurred during the first year of his second term. That decline was real. But the current data does not support a claim that prices dropped this week, substantially or otherwise.

Retail prices tend to follow crude with a lag of one to four weeks, and that prices historically rise faster than they fall — a dynamic sometimes called “rockets and feathers.” If the conflict de-escalates and crude pulls back from current levels, consumers would likely see relief within weeks, not days.

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