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Strategy bets on BPS: 9.4% Bitcoin returns

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智者解密
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4 hours ago
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In early May 2026, Strategy announced that Bitcoin per share (BPS) would officially replace earnings per share (EPS) as the core performance indicator for external disclosure and internal assessment, referred to by founder Michael Saylor as the company's "True North." CEO Phong Le has also reiterated this point multiple times publicly. According to the company’s disclosed data, from the beginning of 2026 to the present, Strategy has achieved approximately 9.4% Bitcoin yield (i.e., BPS growth rate), corresponding to about 5 billion dollars in nominal Bitcoin earnings, further anchoring shareholder value directly to the number of Bitcoins held per share and its growth. Externally, this means that Strategy is no longer using traditional EPS as a valuation anchor; instead, it uses BPS to measure capital operation effectiveness and shareholder returns, effectively tightening the pricing logic of the company’s stock price to the price of Bitcoin and position expansion, thus reinforcing its narrative of transforming into a Bitcoin financial company and actively challenging the traditional EPS-centered valuation framework.

From EPS to BPS: Strategy's Report Card

In traditional financial contexts, EPS corresponds to a “profit and loss statement mindset” — focusing on profit per share, converting operational results into distributable cash flow; the BPS introduced by Strategy represents an “asset statement mindset” — directly counting the number of Bitcoins corresponding to each share, binding shareholder equity to underlying assets. In early May 2026, Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le explicitly stated that the company set Bitcoin per share as the “True North” for performance evaluation, with traditional EPS taking a back seat in the internal assessment system, indicating that management has institutionally completed the paradigm shift from earnings-oriented to Bitcoin-holding-oriented.

This switch has also reshaped Strategy's company narrative: from a technology company focused on business intelligence software in the 2010s to a finance company centered around Bitcoin assets. In the past, shareholders discussed product lines, customer growth, and profit margins; now, under the BPS framework, the core question has become “how many Bitcoins are behind each share, and how fast is that number growing?” The company disclosed that approximately 9.4% Bitcoin yield and about 5 billion dollars in nominal earnings have been regarded as a phased achievement in BPS growth, and shareholder value has been more directly reflected as the proportionate claim to this portion of Bitcoin assets.

The 9.4% Bitcoin Yield Behind It

Understanding the company's disclosed approximately 9.4% Bitcoin yield as a BPS growth rate means that the Bitcoin position corresponding to each share has roughly increased to 1.094 times from the beginning of the year to the present; the corresponding approximately 5 billion dollars in nominal earnings represents the account increment converted from the changes in Bitcoin quantity and price during this period into dollars. In other words, the same “9.4%”, in the context of BPS, is a per-share Bitcoin increment measured in sats, while in the traditional financial reporting context, the 5 billion dollars more reflects the expansion of asset market value. The combination of both constitutes what the company calls annual “Bitcoin yield.”

From the driving factors' perspective, the rise in BPS is not a function of a single variable. A rising price of Bitcoin will directly increase the dollar value of these assets, thereby amplifying nominal earnings; however, if the company dilutes equity through methods such as equity financing during the same period, the proportion of Bitcoin attributed to each share may not necessarily increase. Conversely, even if price fluctuations are small, as long as the net increase in the number of Bitcoins held exceeds the expansion of equity capital, BPS can still record positive growth. A research brief provided a breakdown case based on a single source: claiming that as of May 3, 2026, the company held approximately 818,334 Bitcoins, with a BPS of about 213,371 sats, recovering approximately 63,410 Bitcoins from the beginning of 2026 to now, and pointed out that after recent equity dilution, BPS was still rising. However, these specific holding quantities, BPS figures, and the conclusion that “BPS is still rising after dilution” should currently be considered as pending verification rather than conclusions. Thus, a more reasonable approach is to first accept the macro result of 9.4% and 5 billion dollars disclosed by the company and then decompose the changes in BPS into structural indicators shaped by price paths and holding paths.

Using Equity and Debt to Amplify BPS

After defining BPS as “True North,” Strategy's financing logic was also rewritten: equity issuance, convertible bonds, and structured credit are no longer just tools to supplement cash flow but are directly aimed at leveraging “Bitcoin per share.” Research briefs reveal that the company operates a multi-variable model regularly to dynamically adjust the ratios of equity, debt, and credit, with the goal not being traditional earnings per share, but maximizing annual Bitcoin yield and BPS growth (source A, medium confidence). This means that each financing decision must find an optimally quantifiable point between the "BPS increment brought by the additional Bitcoin position" and "equity dilution and interest burdens," closely binding the paths of Bitcoin prices, holding paths, and capital structure together.

Under this model, so-called STRC and other structured tools are regarded by management as key leverage. One source of information states that since the beginning of 2026, the company's cumulative financing has reached approximately 11.6 billion to 11.68 billion dollars, including an STRC scale of about 8.5 billion dollars, and the CEO in internal statements defines STRC as the core tool driving approximately 9.4% Bitcoin yield and about 5 billion dollars in nominal earnings. These precise figures are currently all pending verification and cannot be treated equivalently to the company’s external disclosures. What can be confirmed is that Strategy is attempting to use such structured financing to further amplify the marginal contribution of Bitcoin positions to shareholders while using a daily iterative capital structure model to control dilution and leverage risks, which is also a key risk that the market must continuously track when assessing the sustainability of its BPS strategy — the yield variable.

Market Pricing for a Bitcoin Financial Company

After Strategy clearly established BPS as "True North" and traditional EPS became secondary, the market and analysts' valuation frameworks began to diverge: one part still tries to value the company based on software business revenues and profits, treating Bitcoin as an auxiliary asset; another part directly views Strategy as a Bitcoin financial company characterized by “per-share Bitcoin amount + leverage,” shifting core indicators from earnings per share to per-share Bitcoin and its growth rate. The latter emphasizes the high correlation between BPS and Bitcoin spot prices, seeing the approximately 9.4% BPS growth rate and about 5 billion dollars in nominal earnings since 2026 as “additional Bitcoin returns after endogenous leverage” and conducting horizontal comparisons against Bitcoin spot, futures, and related assets using indicators such as per-share Bitcoin holding and implied net asset value (NAV) premium or discount.

Within this framework, Strategy is neither a Bitcoin ETF that directly tracks spot prices nor a traditional mining company. Spot ETFs are more akin to passive holding tools, with pricing usually closely aligned to the underlying asset NAV; the valuation logic of mining companies revolves more around capacity, costs, and cash flows priced in fiat currency, treating Bitcoin prices as exogenous variables impacting profits. Strategy places Bitcoin at the core of the balance sheet and amplifies positions through multiple equity issuance and convertible bond issuance, making shareholder returns highly dependent on the continued growth of BPS: on one hand, the expansion of the equity base and the introduction of debt instruments bring dilution and leverage risks; on the other hand, the strong linkage of BPS to Bitcoin prices means that once Bitcoin prices undergo a significant pullback, the capital structure driven by BPS may amplify downward volatility, making deviations and correction cycles of stock price relative to Bitcoin spot more pronounced, and shareholders need to assess whether BPS growth is sufficient to cover dilution and debt costs amidst higher volatility.

Can the BPS Paradigm Extend Beyond Strategy?

Using BPS as “True North” means that Strategy actively abandons the traditional profit and loss statement-centric perspective and reconstructs the company as an experimental ground centered around Bitcoin balance and capital structure operations: management switches between equity, debt, and credit using a multi-variable model, aiming for the maximization of BPS and annual Bitcoin yield, rather than smooth growth of EPS, which is also the core narrative pivot for recording approximately 9.4% Bitcoin yield and about 5 billion dollars in nominal earnings at the beginning of 2026. At least at present, the explicit announcement of using BPS to replace EPS still focuses on Strategy itself. Other holding companies are more about disclosing holding size in financial report notes, without elevating “per-share Bitcoin holding” to the main axis of company valuation and assessment; for regulatory agencies and traditional investors, EPS remains the unified standard. Once BPS is widely adopted, they are more likely to propose additional constraints from the perspectives of information disclosure, risk measurement, and leverage limits, rather than immediately endorsing this new paradigm. On the investor side, viewing BPS as the core indicator for analyzing Strategy is reasonable, but it is essential to recognize that relevant precise holding quantities, BPS values, average holding costs, and financing scales possess the attributes of “single-source, pending verification,” while also understanding that BPS growth itself incorporates equity dilution and debt leverage and should not be simply equated with a safe and replicable growth template, but rather be viewed as a high-volatility, highly dependent selection of capital structure on a single asset.

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