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Mining companies turn to AI, institutions bottoming out Bitcoin: divergence intensifies

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智者解密
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3 hours ago
AI summarizes in 5 seconds.

On one side is the reality of mining companies where "the mined coins are not enough to fill the financial report's hole." In the first quarter of 2026, Cipher Digital's mining revenue was only about $35 million, a drop from about $49 million in the same period the previous year, ultimately recording a net loss of about $114 million, nearly three times the loss from the previous year. In communication of the financial report, the company bluntly laid it out – it aims to accelerate the shift from pure Bitcoin mining to AI and high-performance computing data centers, allowing non-mining revenue to support a new narrative. At the same time, another mining company, IREN Limited, simply spent approximately $625 million in an all-stock acquisition to bring the cloud infrastructure software company Mirantis into its fold, also pointing towards AI cloud and HPC cloud: capabilities like Kubernetes are seen by them as "mining machines" for the new cycle.

On the other side, funds are betting on Bitcoin itself in the opposite manner. From early April to early May, in nearly 30 days, the institutional product Strive ASST rose by about 61%, while its Bitcoin holdings expanded by about 9.17%, a much more aggressive pace than that of some similar products. While mining companies are busy "de-Bitcoin-izing," institutions continue to leverage up and embrace Bitcoin at the product level. The reality is more dramatic: in the 24 hours before May 6, 2026, about $243 million in contracts were liquidated across the network, with shorts liquidating around $192 million, accounting for nearly 80%. This contradicts the industry's shift towards AI while funds are betting on spot and derivative products, and such concentrated liquidations have pushed the volatility of Bitcoin's market into a new narrative starting point.

Mining Companies' Profit Collapse: Cipher Forced to Pivot to AI

If futures liquidations can be seen as a momentary flash crash in market sentiment, then Cipher Digital's quarterly report represents a slower, more painful collapse on the industry side. In the first quarter of 2026, the company’s mining revenue was only about $35 million, significantly down from about $49 million in the same period last year, but its net loss ballooned to about $114 million, whereas the loss a year ago was about $39 million. Revenue has only decreased by a few tens of millions of dollars, yet losses have increased nearly an order of magnitude; this is not simply a case of "bad coin prices," but rather a classic vulnerability of high fixed-cost mining models amplified under changes in Bitcoin prices and mining economics: electricity, premises, equipment depreciation, and financing costs continue to burn cash monthly, while block rewards and transaction fees are compressed due to price volatility and network competition, resulting in increased losses on reports as Cipher mines more.

Under this structural pressure, Cipher's narrative was forced to shift from "mining company" to "computing power company." In the same quarter’s financial report communication, the company no longer spent time solely on Bitcoin production figures but repeatedly emphasized that it is "accelerating the construction of AI and high-performance computing data centers to increase the proportion of non-mining revenue." This was not just a polished phrase, but a re-description of its asset structure: the electricity and premises originally serving Bitcoin production are being repackaged as foundational support for AI training, inference, and high-performance computing; the profit model, which originally relied heavily on coin prices, is attempting to layer a cash flow curve valued by contracts, hosting, and computing power leasing over it, using stable rents to hedge against the cyclical fluctuations of mining revenue.

Along with these changes, the underlying logic of the commercial narrative for the entire mining industry has evolved: from the past linear cycle of "holding coins - selling coins - reinvesting in new mining machines," to a dual structure of "holding computing power assets - allocating to Bitcoin and AI/HPC as needed - renting out computing power to earn rent." Bitcoin mining's role on the balance sheet has transitioned from being the sole source of profit to a "reallocatable account" within a computing power portfolio, while AI/HPC data center business has been assigned the mission of providing more predictable cash flow for this highly leveraged infrastructure company. In the chasm of the mining company's profit model torn by reality, Cipher regards its narrative shift to AI as the final chip to buy time and valuation flexibility.

IREN Spends $625 Million to Acquire Mirantis

While Cipher was still "modifying" a set of AI/HPC narratives using existing mining machines and facilities, another mining company directly purchased the entire puzzle of cloud infrastructure. From the end of the first quarter of 2026 to April, IREN Limited announced its acquisition of the cloud infrastructure software company Mirantis with a valuation of approximately $625 million, through an all-stock deal. Rather than being a traditional mining company merger, this can be seen as IREN proactively reconstructing its acquisition of cloud-native foundational capabilities: it has not increased its computing capacity but spent funds on cloud infrastructure management software like Kubernetes, pushing itself significantly towards becoming a "cloud service operator."

The main business of Mirantis is providing software for managing cloud infrastructures like Kubernetes, which the market views as a key foundational component for AI cloud and high-performance computing cloud. IREN explicitly tied this acquisition to AI cloud business in its announcement: hoping to strengthen AI cloud and related services, increasing the non-mining revenue proportion to smooth out the financial impacts of Bitcoin price cycles. Even more intriguing is the transaction structure—an all-stock payment means that the company's future growth is exchanged for a mature stack of cloud infrastructure and team, tying Mirantis's fate to IREN's stock price, emphasizing long-term synergy rather than short-term financial returns.

If Cipher's path is to squeeze space from its existing balance sheet, slowly transforming cabinets and electricity from the "Bitcoin production line" into AI/HPC data centers, then IREN's route is one of outward expansion: through the acquisition of a complete set of cloud-native software capabilities and AI cloud infrastructure interfaces in one go, then embedding back its computing and data center resources. The former involves internal transformation, trading time for capabilities, attempting to have non-mining businesses gradually take over cash flow during periods of loss; the latter is a "de-Bitcoin-ization" leap using equity as leverage, declaring that mining companies no longer need to confine themselves to the cyclical ups and downs of Bitcoin production, but can aim for higher levels of abstraction within the AI cloud industry chain.

Strive ASST Skyrockets by 60%

While mining companies are reducing their dependence on computing power mining and shifting their valuation stories towards AI and cloud infrastructure, the funding side did not collectively "escape" from Bitcoin. Strive ASST provided a completely opposite sample in the past nearly 30 days: instead of avoiding price fluctuations, it tightened its exposure to Bitcoin more purely and straightforwardly.

Data-wise, in these 30 days, Strive ASST’s price surged by about 61%, according to channel statistics, significantly outperforming most similar Bitcoin-related products. What’s even more crucial than how much it increased is what it was doing while it increased—during that same period, this product's Bitcoin holdings actually rose by about 9.17%. This means that it did not wait for a pullback nor was it “reducing positions at highs,” but rather continuously chose to use new capital to follow this rebound as prices warmed and sentiment improved. This is a typical strategy of increasing positions in accordance with the trend, actively increasing beta.

In contrast, some similar products (like Strategy) during the same period had a much more moderate increase in Bitcoin holdings, more reflective of controlling pace and experimenting with position increases. Strive ASST, on the other hand, raised the pace to a more aggressive position: on the mining company side, Cipher Digital and IREN were attempting to dilute their performance's binding to Bitcoin prices through AI/HPC and cloud infrastructure businesses; whereas institutional products like Strive ASST were actively reinforcing their role as "pure long Bitcoin exposure vehicles" with a price increase of 61% and an increase of 9.17% in holdings, delineating the differentiated paths of "de-Bitcoin-ization" on the industry side and “doubling down on Bitcoin” on the funding side.

$243 Million Liquidation: Shorts Crushed

While the mining companies and institutions are reshaping their balance sheets quarterly, the contract market provided a vastly different answer on a 24-hour scale: by the 24 hours prior to May 6, 2026, about $243 million worth of contracts were liquidated across the network, with short liquidations accounting for about $192 million, nearly 79% of the total. The liquidation scale on the long side was significantly low, with the cleaning of positions almost entirely weighing down on those betting on downward trends—prices surged upward briefly, triggering a wave of forced buying from short positions, making this uptrend more of a "forced correction" completed by the leveraged market.

From a transaction structure perspective, this $192 million short liquidation represents a concentrated backlash against the logic of betting on "mining companies under pressure—prices topping." On the mining company side, Cipher Digital saw its net loss expand, and mining revenues decline, forcing it to accelerate its transition to AI and high-performance computing data centers; IREN placed further bets on AI cloud and Kubernetes infrastructure with its all-stock acquisition of Mirantis, hoping to shift its business focus away from Bitcoin pricing. On the funding side, Strive ASST saw its price rise about 61% in the past 30 days while increasing its Bitcoin holdings by about 9.17%, actively turning itself into a high elasticity long exposure tool. When the contract market "took action" against shorts in an extremely short period, companies that had long tried "de-Bitcoin-ization" and institutions amplifying Bitcoin's beta through products were each affected by the same price curve in completely different ways.

Therefore, this $243 million liquidation was not just an emotional release but twisted three timelines into a single rope: on one end are mining companies using AI/HPC and cloud infrastructure to hedge against the cyclical risks of mining, and on the other end are institutions continuously increasing exposure to Bitcoin through products, with leveraged funds oscillating sharply within a 24-hour window, as shorts were swiftly crushed. The upward pressure on prices created by forced buying coincides with the efforts on the industry side to "de-Bitcoin-ize," amplifying the tension between the two.

The Next Scene of Mining Companies' De-Bitcoinization and Institutions' Accumulation

As Cipher Digital's mining revenue fell and net losses expanded to about $114 million in the first quarter of 2026, forcing it to place bets on AI/HPC data centers, IREN Limited used approximately $625 million to fully acquire Mirantis, reshaping itself as a player in AI cloud and Kubernetes infrastructure, both point towards the same direction: computing power is changing from a specialized device "born for Bitcoin" into a commodity capable of flexibly switching between AI, high-performance computing, and cloud services, while mining companies actively distance themselves from Bitcoin price cycles by reducing their proportion of mining revenue. In contrast, Strive ASST's price rose by about 61% and Bitcoin holdings increased by about 9.17% in the past 30 days, opting to increase positions during this window of recovering market conditions, with Bitcoin exposure more redeployed through financial products; plus the recent $243 million liquidation, of which about 79% came from shorts, pressured prices upwards, instantly amplifying the tension between the industry's "de-Bitcoin-ization" and the funding side's "pro-Bitcoin-ization."

This suggests that at the intersection of the release of profit pressure from mining companies post-halving and the anticipated growth of AI computing demand, a structural differentiation is forming within the Bitcoin industry chain: one end represented by supply sides like Cipher Digital and IREN, utilizing AI/HPC and cloud infrastructure businesses to hedge against mining cycles, transforming themselves into infrastructure companies selling electricity and renting computing power; while at the other end represented by institutions like Strive ASST, continuously increasing allocations to Bitcoin through a productized approach, viewing it as a financial asset to configure, hedge, and trade, with the space in between populated by leveraged funds oscillating sharply from long to short liquidations on a 24-hour basis. Under conditions of commoditized computing power, expanded AI computing demand, and uncertain macro liquidity, the paradigm of "mining companies de-Bitcoinizing while funds flow back into Bitcoin through financial products" is likely to coexist for the long term, and the price and industrial logic of Bitcoin will more be a result of the interplay among computing power vendors, asset managers, and leveraged funds.

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