What to know : Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies fell as Brent crude surged to a four-year intraday high on renewed fears of U.S. military escalation against Iran. The jump in oil prices reflects a growing war premium tied to the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and expectations that hypersonic U.S. weapons could be deployed in the region. Analysts say Bitcoin is unlikely to break above $80,000 unless Middle East tensions ease and Brent crude drops below $100 a barrel, which could spur a broader rally in risk assets.
The Iran war premium is back, and crypto is paying for it.
Bitcoin slid 2.1% over the past 24 hours to $75,633 in Asian hours Thursday, down 3% on the week, as Brent crude jumped 7.1% to $126.41 a barrel — the highest intraday level in four years — on an Axios report that President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran.
The report added U.S. Central Command has asked for hypersonic missiles to be deployed to the Middle East, which would mark the first time American forces have used those weapons in combat. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since the war began in late February, choking flows of crude, natural gas, and oil products.
Such activity leads to a war premium, which refers to the portion of an asset's price driven by conflict risk rather than supply-demand fundamentals. Brent has been carrying a heavy one all year, with prices up over 100% year-to-date.
The global benchmark is now riding a nine-day winning streak, the longest since May 2022, and is up over 100% year-to-date.
Ether dropped 3.4% to $2,244 and is down 4.4% on the week. XRP fell 2.1% to $1.37, off 3.7% over seven days. Solana lost 2.6% to $82.62. BNB shed 1.9% to $615. The only green print in the top 10 outside stablecoins is dogecoin, up 3.8% on the day and 10.1% on the week to $0.10.
Risk assets are giving back gains across the board. Nasdaq 100 futures erased an earlier 1.1% rally fueled by strong Alphabet and Amazon earnings, MSCI's Asia Pacific share index fell 1.4%, and European equities were primed to drop 1% at the open.
The dollar gained and bonds slid as the surge in oil and a hawkish Fed hold sapped demand for fixed income. Treasury 10-year yields held near the highest since July, and Japan's 10-year notes hit the highest level since 1997, per Bloomberg.
Bitcoin's resilience through the early stages of the war is being tested. The asset has held a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 through April even as oil ran from $98 to $126 and the conflict entered its third month. Each escalation headline has produced a sharper drawdown, and the cumulative damage is starting to show.
BTC is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, said in a note that any break above $80,000 requires the war premium to unwind.
"Bitcoin is trying to break the key $80,000 level, which would require a resolution to the Middle East conflict and, as a result, a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel," he said. "One is impossible without the other, and the USA administration's plans for a prolonged naval blockade of Iran are becoming a real obstacle."
Lillo flagged a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in coming days and frames it as a response to "positive steps by Iran" to engineer a relief rally.
"A potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000."
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