Some friends have good questions. It seems that the capital has shifted from net outflow to net inflow. Does this mean that the upward trend of Bitcoin will change?

From my personal perspective, data can only explain what has happened in the past and is difficult to predict the future, or rather, data represents predictions about the future under normal circumstances.

For example, the decline in April 2025 was due to Trump's tariff war, and the subsequent rise was because Trump changed his initial tariff ideas, which was favorable for the market, resulting in an increase.

Currently, the rise is more due to the ceasefire between Iran and the United States, which the market sees as a positive sign, expecting oil prices to drop, inflation not to continue rising, and the probability of recession to decrease, leading to a situation of large capital inflow.

However, if we assume that Iran and the United States start fighting again tomorrow, or even if the war escalates, then capital will likely retreat, and consequently, the market will worsen, causing the price of $BTC to fall.

When simply discussing trends, one needs to look at the macro cycle versus the short term. In the long term, the U.S. will eventually enter a rate-cutting cycle; this is certain, but the timing is uncertain. Therefore, according to economic cycles, a low-interest-rate period will inevitably come, and low interest rates are often favorable for risk markets.

However, in the short term, there are many constraints, such as oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, and monetary policies, among others.

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