Let’s talk about a few common misconceptions (❌):

1. The price of U has been falling, indicating that it is still a bear market because no one is buying U. ❌

Currently, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Chinese yuan has indeed been decreasing, one reason for this decrease is monetary policy, which we won't delve into. However, USDT inherently represents the US dollar, so when the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Chinese yuan continues to decrease, it is very normal for the exchange rate of USDT to CNY in the OTC market to also decrease.

The current exchange rate is 6.83, so the USDT to CNY exchange rate in the OTC market is normal around this vicinity, with a bulk around 6.8 being very normal.

Of course, unless there are extreme market conditions that require a large amount of margin replenishment, which may temporarily push up the OTC price of USDT against CNY, but that's just short-term.

2. Long-term holders not exiting won't drive up the price. ❌

Currently, there are over 14.77 million long-term holders who have not moved their assets for more than 155 days. What does this mean? The total number of Bitcoin that has been mined so far is 20.02 million, which means that 73.78% of the existing circulating supply of bitcoin:native has not participated in trading in the last five months.

Even during the lowest point of the last cycle in 2021, this data never dropped below 11.5 million coins; in 2018, the lowest point still had 8.57 million coins. Looking over a longer time frame, historically, long-term holding Bitcoin has always been increasing. Even at the historical high of BTC at 124,000 dollars during this cycle, the long-term holding BTC exceeded 14.67 million coins.

Instead, it should be that the more BTC is held long-term, the less BTC is circulating in the market, and the less pressure there is to drive up the price.

3. If it can’t go up now, it's all institutions or whales dumping. ❌

From a data perspective, in recent years, both long-term holders and high-net-worth investors (holding more than 10 BTC) have been rising in sync, especially since high-net-worth investors traditionally hold the largest amount of Bitcoin. Therefore, we can draw the conclusion that more bitcoin:native is being transferred to long-term and high-net-worth investors.

This aligns with the saying that money is going into the hands of those who are not short of money.

Moreover, this group of high-net-worth investors overlaps with the long-term holding of Bitcoin, so when long-term-held BTC is continuously rising, it proves that the amount of BTC held by long-term holders is greater than the BTC participating in trading. When the BTC price can’t continue to break through, it is highly likely not the high-net-worth investors dumping, but a large number of short-term investors trading.

This data can be seen in the daily URPD data, where a large amount of trading involves BTC that participated in trading about a week ago.

I will continue to supplement.

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