The good days for bulls have come to an end. After Bitcoin soared to a nearly two-week peak of $79,438 on April 23, it has been bleeding ever since. In the morning of April 28, around 9 AM, it dropped to a low of $76,324, with the current quote at $76,563, marking a 24-hour decline of 3.26%. Ethereum's situation is even worse, plunging from yesterday's intraday high of around $2,400 to a low of $2,263, directly breaking the key psychological level of $2,300. At the time of writing, the quote is $2,283, with a 24-hour decline of about 4.01%. The overall downtrend has led to many bullish leveraged positions being liquidated.

　　Behind this sudden drop, at least three forces are fermenting simultaneously. First is the pressure from the FOMC meeting watch. The Federal Reserve's decision-making meeting is scheduled for April 28 to 29, with results announced in the early hours of April 30, Beijing time. Currently, the market bets a 99.9% chance that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. However, the market isn't worried about interest rate hikes, but rather about Powell's hawkish stance at his final meeting before stepping down on May 15, especially with the shadow of stagflation from March's CPI not yet dissipated; any hawkish comments could suppress risk assets.

　　Secondly, the rise in geopolitical risks. Originally, the US-Iran nuclear negotiations were hoped to be mediated by Pakistan, but they are now at a standstill, with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalating and international oil prices briefly soaring to $107 per barrel. The risk-off sentiment has suddenly surged, transferring funds to physical commodities, putting pressure on the crypto market first.

　　Finally, there's the issue of ETF buying. In April, Bitcoin spot ETFs accumulated inflows of $2.43 billion—a seemingly bright figure, but upon closer inspection, it appears that ETF buying is merely providing an outlet for liquidity. It offers an exit window for short-term holders rather than introducing real long-term holding funds.

　　The change in market sentiment is most intuitive. The fear and greed index was at neutral 47 yesterday, then plummeted overnight to fearful 33, matching the level of seven days ago, indicating that the brief warming of confidence last week has been completely wiped out by this sudden drop.

　　Bitcoin four-hour chart

　　Currently, Bitcoin's price is around $76,584, having previously surged to $79,459 before being pressed back down. The overall trend is still within a four-hour upward channel and is currently a normal corrective pullback after an increase, not a trend reversal. The main upward wave has completed, starting from $64,936 to $79,459, and it is now entering a high-level consolidation phase.

　　A MACD dead cross has formed, with red bars continuously shortening and turning into green bars, and both DIF and DEA are trending downward simultaneously. This indicates that short-term funds are realizing profits at high levels, entering an adjustment period on the four-hour scale. Therefore, caution is advised for chasing bullish positions until the MACD forms a new golden cross.

　　Currently, KDJ's three lines are clearly under pressure: K value at 15, D value at 24, and J value has approached negative territory. This represents that the short-term has entered the oversold area, and the bearish release is nearing the end. Typically, technical rebounds are likely to occur at such positions. This means the downside is limited; however, an immediate reversal needs further confirmation.

　　Current prices have retreated near the middle Bollinger Band, and the upper band has begun to flatten. This indicates that the upward momentum is weakening, and the market has entered a phase of consolidation. The gain or loss of the middle band will determine the next directional move. If it stabilizes above the middle band, there will be potential for an upward push; if it breaks below the middle band, the focus will shift to the lower band for support.

　　Using the range from $64,936 to $79,459 for estimation: the 23.6% retracement is at $76,031, 38.2% retracement at $73,911, 50% retracement at $72,197, and 61.8% retracement at $70,484. Currently, the price is fluctuating around the 23.6% level. This indicates that the first support has been reached, and whether it can hold is crucial.

　　Market trend prediction (focus)

　　1. Holding at $76,000 (moderately strong). If the four-hour closing price re-establishes itself in the range of $76,800 to $77,000, the market will then try to attack $78,000 and the previous high of $79,459. If it breaks the previous high, look for a new high of $80,000.

　　2. Losing $76,000 (moderately weak). If it drops below $76,000 and does so with volume, a pullback to the strong support at $73,900 is possible, even reaching the extreme level of $72,197. This will be an opportunity for bulls to re-enter.

　　Suggestions are for reference only

　　1. On rebound in the range of $76,850-$77,200, short in batches, with a stop-loss above $77,680, with the first target at $76,050 and the second target at $75,200. If there is a direct and effective break below $76,000, and a 15-minute close below with an entity bearish candle, then short directly, stop-loss at $76,350, target at $75,200-$73,900.

　　2. If a pullback occurs around $75,200 with a 15-minute bullish engulfing candle appearing, small positions can be tried for long, with a stop-loss at $74,800, and target at $76,000-$77,800.

　　In summary, Bitcoin's four-hour chart is currently a technical pullback within an upward trend; $76,000 is a short-term lifeline, holding above it continues to have expectations for new highs, while breaking below means seeking opportunities at $73,900.

　　Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, it is better to provide you with the correct mindset and trend; teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish. Recommendations may earn temporarily, but learning the mindset helps to earn for a lifetime!

　　Time of writing: (2026-04-28, 18:50)

　　(Article - Big God Talking About Coins) Hereby declare: Online publication has delays; the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; proceed with caution!

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