In the past two reports, it was indicated that the Bitcoin bear market phase may be nearing its end. Currently, as the price has regained key technical levels, multiple indicators such as trend models, the 21-week moving average, and on-chain capital flows are forming a resonance, with the market's confidence in this assessment gradually increasing. Meanwhile, the $73,000 level has remained an important watershed since March 2024 and is a crucial threshold for confirming whether this trend can reverse.

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has returned above the 21-week moving average, which holds significant meaning in the bullish-bearish judgment framework. Additionally, the monthly RSI and weekly stochastic indicators are both positioned in historically corresponding bottom areas, further reinforcing the assessment that the market is transitioning from a phase of bottoming out to a phase of recovery. Although short-term fluctuations may still be influenced by macro variables, the backdrop of gradual technical recovery is leading to a structural shift in Bitcoin's movement from a "bounce" to a "trend recovery."

Technical Signal Resonance: Key Moving Averages and Trend Models Point to a Recovery Phase

Currently, Bitcoin's price has regained the 21-week moving average, a signal that has historically been viewed as an important confirmation condition for entering a new upward cycle. If the weekly close can stabilize above this level, the market is likely to transition from the oscillation repair phase to a trend-based upward movement.

Looking at historical backtesting, the 21-week moving average has not only effectively identified trend reversals but has also helped investors avoid significant drawdowns during the 2021/2022 bear market. In the current cycle, if the price confirms stability in the $78,000–$79,000 range, this indicator may trigger an entry signal again.

At the same time, the trend model has shifted to a bullish stance. Considering the strong trend and high volatility characteristics of Bitcoin, after multiple signals have repeated previously, the current trend has stronger conditions for continuation. Various technical indicators strengthening simultaneously over different time dimensions bring the current market environment closer to the key stages of upward recovery following a bottom.

Capital Recovery Accelerating: Multi-Channel Inflows Support Market Structure Improvement

As the technical aspects strengthen, changes in capital are further intensifying this trend. Since April, stablecoins, Bitcoin ETFs, futures leverage, and Strategy's buying have collectively brought back about $18.7 billion in capital, raising overall inflows to a high not seen since July 2025.

On-chain data also shows that after experiencing about $25 billion in capital outflows, the market's capital has begun to warm up, and the recovery speed is noticeably faster than during the 2022 cycle. This means that the market structure after this round of adjustments is completing a rebalancing more quickly.

Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to finance through the STRC tool and buy Bitcoin. Since the beginning of this year, its total financing size has reached about $11 billion, providing stable buying support for the market. As long as the STRC interest rate difference remains within a reasonable range, this financing mechanism can continue to operate and translate into new demand. Capital inflows are no longer dependent on a single channel but are improving from multiple dimensions, decreasing the likelihood of significant further declines in Bitcoin and also providing a basis for future price movements toward the $88,000 target range.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a crucial stage of transitioning from "technical repair" to "capital-driven recovery." Resonance among several indicators, including the trend model, the 21-week moving average, the RSI, and on-chain capital flows, corresponds historically to the window where markets move from staged rebounds to trend recovery. At the same time, the improvement in capital is accelerating and is sourced more diversely, making the market structure more solid compared to previous cycles.

However, macro variables may still bring periodic disturbances, such as uncertainties in the Federal Reserve's policy path or changes in the STRC interest rate differences, both of which could affect short-term rhythms. Bitcoin is unlikely to show unidirectional rapid increases, more likely rising gradually amidst fluctuations. However, from the current combination of technical and capital aspects, the market direction is clearer than before, and trend recovery is gradually unfolding.

The above opinions are partly derived from BIT on Target, Contact us for the complete BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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