The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focused on analysis of digital currency market trends, striving to convey the most valuable cryptocurrency market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome to all coin friends' attention and likes, and refuse any market smoke screens!   

Since yesterday's publication, we have touched our entry point for long positions twice, and each opportunity has reached our required take-profit positions of 500-1000 points. Congratulations to everyone. The recent accuracy of the contracts has been relatively high, also benefiting from the strong momentum of the bulls. Today, I will reanalyze the medium-term trends. The divergence between Lao Cui and everyone else primarily lies in military predictions. Most financial analysts in the market generally view the war pessimistically. It seems they think that the current ceasefire is merely preparation for the next conflict, and they also believe the Americans have incurred significant losses this time. Yesterday, I took the time to examine various data, which gave me a new perspective on the ceasefire. What is the essence of military conflict? Historically, all conflicts boil down to the allocation of interests, which has taken on a new definition in the financial realm, called asset repricing. What does the U.S. want to maintain? It is nothing but the appreciation of dollar assets, as oil itself is anchored to the dollar, hence the current conflict.

Many friends feel that after reading domestic analyses, they believe XX has dragged the Americans into a quagmire of war and will not easily give up this opportunity. I don't know what you consider as an opportunity? Trump's winning strategy? You can take a look at who is truly the largest energy exporter behind the recent surge in oil prices? Isn’t the soaring oil price benefiting the largest exporter? How did it transform into the narrative that the importing country is the winner? Regarding Iran, it is also very clear that the largest ports and oil fields have been destroyed; to recover them will take at least several years, which means that in the short term the Americans will still maintain their position as the largest energy exporter. Who should be the biggest beneficiary of this blow? Isn’t it just a few militarily-related and energy-exporting countries? Where is our benefit? Isn’t there a significant increase in commodity export data from last year to this year? This blow indeed benefits both sides, but the shortcoming is very clear: we simply lack energy.

Of course, due to the surge in energy prices, domestic data has surprisingly improved. This improvement logic has also been explained to all of you; let's review it again, it's just that imports and exports are tending to balance. This balance can be attributed to the previous increase in trade surplus, and the surge in energy has increased import data. This is what the Americans want to see; at least they have bargaining chips for negotiations. So is Iran's energy important? Absolutely, Iran, Venezuela, and Russia are among the heaviest-weighted countries in our imports. Securing them would be the optimal choice, but the biggest current issue is that they cannot be secured. Once the top leadership's strikes are over, and even the leadership team has been changed, it does not help the situation at all; even the energy that the country relies on for survival has all been eliminated, yet they still have to struggle to sustain themselves. It is obvious that continuing the attack won’t yield greater benefits for the Americans; the current situation would just necessitate compromise due to the context.

Currently, Lao Cui had predicted at the end of March that there would likely be a large-scale conflict before negotiations. Your understanding of this large-scale conflict might be somewhat biased, as Lao Cui also lacked significant confidence at the time. The perspective then was to destroy all energy facilities, control the straits, and blow up all bridges domestically. So far, only the first two tasks have been completed; regarding bridges, perhaps some benevolence was triggered, and the Americans ultimately chose not to do so. In Lao Cui's view, this is purely a reflection of human kindness. No one could have predicted that the Iranian people would be so brave, using their lives to defend their country, and the Americans naturally do not dare to risk universal condemnation. Iran currently has lost its rightful pricing power over energy; international oil prices are almost entirely under American control. For them, the only value in current negotiations is concerning control of the strait. Most negotiations will revolve around this trend, and once Iran makes concessions, whether it be a fifty-fifty split or an eighty-twenty rule, it will ultimately lead to a resolution.

Analyzing warfare from the perspective of interests is somewhat one-sided; military conflict is ever-changing. Initially, the Americans' goal was definitely energy, which is beyond doubt, but as they began destroying these oil facilities, it indicated that they have recognized this is something unachievable. Gaining control over the strait is merely a product of compromise; given the current situation, this is the best outcome for the Americans. If you think the oil price is only a branch of finance, unable to illustrate specific issues, you can still compare it with the trends of U.S. stocks, dollar, and U.S. Treasury bonds. These data will always reflect the current situation, right? The more chaotic the situation is, the more smoke screens appear in the market, with even many analysts clamoring about rate hikes. The emergence of such words can only suggest that perhaps the analysts you see have barely finished elementary school. During the stage of geopolitical conflict, especially for countries personally involved, rate hikes cannot possibly be an option; the Americans would not be so foolish amidst internal and external troubles.

Regarding military predictions, Lao Cui's viewpoint is very clear: as long as Iran can make concessions regarding the straits, this round of ceasefire is likely to be achieved. Do not view these matters through a conspiracy lens; if certain levels do not wish for a ceasefire, there could not be Pakistan mediating. The emergence of this indicates that it is very likely to be resolved peacefully. Assuming military conflicts cease, what should the cryptocurrency market do? Gold cool down? Oil cool down? In fact, the cryptocurrency concept stocks already indicate direction within U.S. stocks; based on the current liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, coin prices will see a steady rise. All this is based on the complete end of military threats, meaning the ending of medium-term suppression will trigger a reversal to a bull market. At this stage, I still define the growth as a change of hands in the early phase of a bull market. Currently, BlackRock and MicroStrategy’s holdings have reached around 1.64 million bitcoins; I remain optimistic about the new highs for Bitcoin this year.

Lao Cui summarized: The essence of prediction is to confront overall certainty against local randomness, controlling uncontrollable factors. What is the overall certainty at this stage? The war will definitely end, oil prices will definitely cool down, and the financial market will definitely recover. Under this premise, there is not much to discuss for spot traders; future long articles will primarily respond to viewpoints that differ from yours, focusing still on daily contracts. Today's market is extremely promising; it's a good time to buy long at the current price. The current price is at the 77459 position; looking up 500-1000 points should be very easy, especially combined with Trump's recent speeches, which will generally lean towards positive sentiments, but remember not to be greedy. Especially for those with spot holdings, try to prioritize earnings in their spot trades; contracts are merely a hedging choice during downturns. And for those focused on contracts, after recent profits, try to grab this year's main bullish wave mainly in spot. At the end of the article, if you have any questions, feel free to ask Lao Cui directly.

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Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; experts can see five moves, seven moves, or even more than ten moves ahead, while those with lower skills can only see two or three moves. Skilled players consider the overall situation, strategizing for major trends, not focusing on individual pieces or short-term local gains, with the ultimate goal of winning the game. In contrast, lesser players fight over every inch, frequently switching between bullish and bearish, focusing only on short-term gains, resulting in repeated difficulties.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this, consequences are at your own risk!

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