The market is fully on the rise, and those holding long positions should be in a state of complete profit-taking. I won't comment too much on this matter to avoid you thinking that I'm just marketing again. There have been reports about small coins blowing up for the past couple of days, but only yesterday did many friends find out about it when my article mentioned it, discovering that they were completely unaware of the news. You all need to reflect on this seriously. Generally, I hardly mention small coins that are seeing a spike, with the exception of this time with AAVE, which I also didn’t mention in the spike (the reason is simple: the spike coincides with the Bitcoin cycle). However, this blow-up has triggered a significant trust crisis, which is not something that a small coin can cause. Additionally, the bearish sentiment towards Ethereum lately, for many friends, is largely based on AAVE's blow-up, which has become a major factor in my lack of confidence in bullish positions over the past couple of days. I will try to talk to you in simple terms.

The current situation of AAVE is quite dire. All core market utilization rates have already reached 100%, including the locked 3 billion USDT and 2 billion USDC, which means you cannot cash out at all. After AAVE encountered bad debts, Justin Sun, MEXC exchange, and other whale users immediately withdrew tens of billions from AAVE, draining the already limited liquidity in the core markets like ETH, USDT, and USDC. This means you can no longer withdraw ETH from AAVE. Worse still, this also implies that if the price of ETH drops or crashes, the protocol will be unable to handle ETH liquidations. If ETH cannot be sold, debts cannot be covered through liquidation, which means as long as these markets remain stagnant, the risk of AAVE continuing to expand bad debts will only increase. However, ETH depositors can at least sell aETHwETH tokens at a slight discount on aggregators like Uniswap.

A chain reaction followed. Recently, a substantial amount of Ether selling has occurred because the earlier core staking of AAVE was Ether. This explains why Ether suddenly halted after reaching a new high of 2463 on the 17th; the event has already occurred, and there are now signs of cessation of hostilities because retail investors who haven't left basically cannot escape, becoming entirely dead, and we will see how the subsequent handling wraps up. This blow-up is nothing more than a trust crisis resulting from theft, which is not a big deal for small coins. This serves as a warning; please do not heavily invest in small coins. Despite this impact, I remain firmly bullish, with very clear reasons: the turnover of giants and inflow of funds will show significant returns in the later stages. Especially Bitcoin, for those capable, it is definitely a prerequisite investment target, with a return period not exceeding two years.

I conclude: In the short term, still viewing from a linear perspective, with yesterday's breakthrough, the market is currently operating above the middle track, forming a shape that could challenge previous highs. The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, KDJ's three lines are running parallel, and the RSI’s three values are above 30 and below 60, showing no obvious signals of overselling or overbuying. This is a trend of choosing direction. Combining with the current news, there will soon be a second round of negotiations between Iran and the US, which aligns perfectly with the trend. This indicates that the signals from this negotiation will determine the bullish or bearish trend, and everyone needs a core observation point. My approach will always be to capture a space of 500-1000 points, so my short-term strategy will still revolve around the earlier entry points, attempting long positions around 75000. Although there might be opportunities to enter at the current price, the risks are higher than before, so remember not to exaggerate gains. The bearish trend on the four-hour line is extremely obvious, and it is likely to be an upward trend after a dip and repair. Whether April can surge to the 80,000 mark will depend on how long this group of bullish users can hold on to the current trend.

Original creation published on WeChat: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。