Bitcoin Market Core Status Review

The key resistance in the market is focused on the $81,000 level, where large sell orders exist, making it a core strong resistance point on the order book; currently, only large orders are present, and a concentrated sustained sell-off has not formed, which is enough to determine that the short sellers have not yet entered the market on a large scale.

Market open interest (OI) has simultaneously decreased by 5.74%, with high-leverage funds continuing to clear out, and short-term chasing funds collectively withdrawing; if prices rebound and touch near $81,000, short-term shorts on the market will face concentrated liquidation.

Spot ETF has maintained net capital inflow for eight consecutive days, with institutional long-term buying still ongoing, but the strength of entering has significantly weakened; yesterday's net inflow was only $11.84 million, indicating that institutions' willingness to actively increase their Bitcoin holdings has greatly cooled at this stage.

Geopolitical variables are repeatedly changing, and the U.S.-Iran situation continues to be a game of extreme stakes; Trump has stated that negotiations may restart soon, which Iran promptly denied, causing international oil prices to continue to fluctuate at high levels. The back-and-forth between confrontation and negotiation news has become a tangled variable affecting cryptocurrency prices, leaving the situation unresolved and continuously disturbing market sentiment.

The volume structure at the four-hour level is weak, with neither bulls nor bears forming concentrated significant volume. Short sellers are holding back, continually observing, while bulls also lack upward momentum, creating a strong sentiment of waiting and seeing, waiting for geopolitical news to catalyze the market.

The daily level trend maintains structural strength, with prices consolidating and rebounding based on the Fibonacci ascending channel, currently trading sideways in the key range of 0.786–1, while short-term bulls still have the desire to test the $80,000 level, with a clear bottoming pattern in range-bound consolidation.

Market Summary and Trading Ideas

$81,000 serves as the core defensive line for short sellers in the short term, and when the price reaches this range, intense battles between bulls and bears are inevitable.

Short-term operations: Buy low based on range support and try short positions near key resistance with light positions, controlling the rhythm of short-term fluctuations.

Medium-term positioning: Maintain patience and wait, and do not rush into short positions. Focus on waiting for three major signals: First, the latest progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations this weekend; second, the price rebound to the $80,000–$82,000 high range; third, signals of concentrated entry from short sellers.

Currently, the market is primarily in a state of consolidation and waiting; patiently wait for the confirmation of a clear top pattern before initiating medium-term short positions, and wait for the direction of the market to become clear.

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