Today's core major news: Trump has scheduled aTACO as expected, while announcing that related suspension measures will last until the peace agreement is officially established. This action is enough to indicate that the U.S. side does not have a strong determination to fight Iran to the end.

However, Trump later added that the ceasefire window is not indefinitely extended, only providing an additional 3 to 5 days of buffer period. In my view, such a short-term statement has little reference value; after the time limit expires, it is highly likely that the TACO model will continue.

Driven by expectations of easing tensions, global risk assets have welcomed a collective rebound. However, contrary to the trend in risk markets, Brent and WTI crude oil continue to strengthen and rise. The core reason is that even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation and the channels are unblocked, the comprehensive clearance of residual mines in the region is expected to take up to six months to complete.

This also means that shipping transport risks will continue to exist in the short term, and medium to long-term oil prices will be continually supported and restricted. Therefore, it is easy to rise but hard to fall.

The stronger the rebound in Bitcoin, the higher the hidden risks! No aggressive long positions in the medium term; strictly quick in and out in the short term, take profits when in the green. Bullish sentiment is high, and it is difficult to completely cool down without touching the strong resistance line around 80,000. The market will continue to rebound, and the bears will not officially enter. Therefore, it is highly probable that the market will continue to probe upwards, hitting the 80,000 mark, or even briefly touching around 82,000 in the short term.

At this stage, there is no need to rush to set medium-term short positions; adhere to trading principles: do not easily short unless the bear's main force has fully entered. Focus only on high certainty trend markets in the medium term, refuse blind speculation. When the price rebounds to the 80,000 - 82,000 range, when everyone in the market is shouting bullish and the sentiment is completely enthusiastic, the fourth wave dead cat bounce of Bitcoin's weekly chart will completely end, and a deep pullback will soon begin. The view remains unchanged: the market still favors the main downtrend of the fifth wave in the weekly chart, firmly predicting that Bitcoin will fall back to the four-digit starting range in the second half of the year.

The closer the market is to the 80,000 pressure level, the higher the value-for-money and safety of medium-term high short positions. Currently, the BTC order book has seen large sell orders posted; the main bearish force below 80,000 is ambushing in batches. According to historical market patterns, the probability of a subsequent pullback has significantly increased. I remind everyone to strictly control long positions and set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit levels. The critical time window for a market change is approaching, and a staged significant decline is brewing. Be sure to operate cautiously and avoid risks.

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