Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.56 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59%, or $1.51 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $320.6 billion, which has increased by 0.87% in the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 57.94%.
CoinMarketCap among the top 200 projects, most have increased while a few have decreased, among which: BTC rose by 4.48% over 7 days, ETH rose by 6.18% over 7 days, SOL rose by 5.01% over 7 days, RAVE rose by 1434.7% over 7 days, and Binance Life rose by 304.11% over 7 days.
This week, the net inflow into the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $996 million; the net inflow into the US Ethereum spot ETF was $275 million.
Market Forecast (April 20 - April 26) :
The RSI index is 61.21 (neutral, up from last week), the fear and greed index is 22 (fear), and the altcoin season index is 38 (neutral, up from last week).
BTC: $72,000-82,000 (April 22 US-Iran ceasefire agreement expiration; FOMC pre-emptive speculation)
ETH: $2,150-2,550 (funds flowing from CEX to custody wallets; June upgrade expectations)
SOL: $77-100 (continuous net inflow into spot ETF; must break above $98 to confirm trend)
Main Risks:
Geopolitical Black Swan, if the US-Iran ceasefire agreement collapses, it could lead to escalated conflict in the Strait of Hormuz
Macro Unexpected Tightening, if unemployment numbers in April are below expectations and if Federal Reserve officials unexpectedly adopt a hawkish stance, there may be expectations for interest rate hikes
Understanding Now
US-Iran Geopolitical Situation Reversal, Cryptocurrency Market Soars Across the Board
This week, the biggest driver in the market came from geopolitical factors. As signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran emerged, Trump stated that the conflict may be nearing an end, significantly boosting market risk appetite. Bitcoin temporarily broke above $76,000 from April 14 to 15, reaching its highest level in nearly two months, with Ethereum rising over 8%. This surge led to the liquidation of a large number of short positions, with over 170,000 people liquidated across the network in 24 hours, totaling over $500 million.
Google Releases Quantum Computing Threat Report, Ringing Alarm for Cryptography
Google's Quantum AI team released a report stating that a computer with 500,000 physical qubits could theoretically crack Bitcoin's elliptic curve encryption algorithm in 9 minutes. The report indicates that about 6.9 million Bitcoins (approximately one-third of the total supply) are exposed to quantum attack risks. While the market has not seen panic selling for now, this news has sparked intense discussion about the long-term security of crypto assets, and the industry is beginning to focus on the transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC).
Strategy Invests $1 Billion to Increase Holdings, Institutions "Bottom-Fishing" Clearly
Despite the volatility in the market, MicroStrategy (renamed Strategy) announced its entry into the market again, investing $1 billion to purchase 13,927 Bitcoins at approximately $71,902 each. This brings its total holdings to 780,897. This move has been interpreted by the market as a sign that long-term institutional funds are still strategically allocating during price corrections.
Bitcoin ETF Capital Flows Show Divergence
Data from April 13 shows that capital flows into crypto ETF products are significantly divergent. The Bitcoin spot ETF saw a massive outflow of $291 million in a single day. In contrast, Ethereum and XRP's ETFs recorded slight net inflows, indicating a trend of funds temporarily rotating from Bitcoin to other mainstream crypto assets.
AI and Meme Sectors Experience "Meme Frenzy", Local Hotspots Erupt
Although the broader market is in a phase of oscillation and repair, the altcoin market has shown extremely high local enthusiasm. Data from April 17 indicates that the AI sector led gains with a 12.48% increase in 24 hours, while the Meme sector also rose by 12.03%. Among them, ORDI (ORDI) surged over 153% in a single day, and Siren (SIREN) increased over 92%, demonstrating high activity of speculative funds in the short term.
Miners Experience Record Sell-Off, On-Chain Selling Pressure Intensifies
As geopolitical conflicts lead to rising energy costs and the pressure of "computational price" post halving, publicly traded mining companies disclosed that they sold over 32,000 Bitcoins in the first quarter. CryptoQuant's research director warned that on-chain indicators show that profit-taking and miner selling behaviors are enhancing market selling pressure, making the rebound foundation unstable.
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Continues to Ferment, UK and France Intervene as Mediators
As a critical juncture where oil prices and the crypto market are interconnected, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense. France and the UK announced they would host a video conference on the safety of the strait on April 17. Given Bitcoin's recent historic high correlation with oil prices, each change in the strait's situation directly transmits to the volatility of the crypto market.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee Bullish: Crypto Will Lead the Next Wave of Rebound
Notable Wall Street bull, Fundstrat's Chief Investment Officer Tom Lee, stated on April 15 that the next major surge in the market will not be led by stocks, but driven by cryptocurrencies. He believes Bitcoin and Ethereum will become leaders of the rebound alongside the "Seven Giants" tech stocks and predicts that Bitcoin could reach $85,000 by the end of April.
Stablecoin Landscape Adjusts: USDC Favored, USDT Share Slightly Decreases
During the market deleveraging process, the total market cap of stablecoins remains resilient at around $309 billion, but the internal structure has changed. Data shows that USDT experienced its first significant decline since 2022 (-1.6%), while the more compliant USDC recorded a 2.4% increase. This reflects that during extreme volatility, funds tend to flow towards assets with higher regulatory transparency.
Bitcoin Key Technical Levels Faced Resistance, Market in "Fragile Stability" State
Despite a significant surge midweek, Bitcoin failed for the third time in testing the resistance at the 100-day moving average. As of April 17, Bitcoin has retreated to oscillate within the range of $74,000-75,000. Analysts pointed out that although the market has temporarily stopped declining, it is in a "fragile stability" state, and if it fails to hold above $75,000, it may retest the support level at $68,000.
Macroeconomics
On April 16, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 11 was 207,000, expected 215,000, previous value revised from 219,000 to 218,000.
On April 17, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, after today's release of US initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in April is 99.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point increase is 0.5%.
ETF
According to statistics, from April 13 to April 17, US Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow is: $996 million; as of April 17, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $26.068 billion, currently holding $11.819 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $61.869 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin Spot ETF is: $103.91 billion.
US Ethereum Spot ETF Net Inflow is: $275 million.
Looking Ahead
Industry Events
Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
ETHGlobal will hold an online asynchronous hackathon called "Open Agents" from April 24 to May 6, 2026. This event focuses on cutting-edge fields such as AI agents, infrastructure, and on-chain execution, providing remote participation opportunities for global developers with a prize pool of over $50,000. The application channel has officially opened.
Bitcoin Las Vegas 2026 will be held from April 27 to 29, 2026, in Las Vegas, USA.
Consensus Miami 2026 will be held from May 5 to 7, 2026, in Miami, USA.
Project Progress
Meteora MET airdrop claim deadline is expected to be April 23, 2026.
The TRUMP token team will host a crypto and business summit and banquet at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on April 25, where Trump will attend as the keynote speaker, and Tyson will also be present to speak. This event will use a leaderboard mechanism, and the top 297 qualified participants by holding points will gain attendance eligibility. Among them, the top 29 VIP users will also have exclusive receptions and VIP front-row seats with Trump and other guests.
Important Events
On April 21 at 20:30, the US will announce the monthly retail sales rate for March.
On April 22 at 22:30, the US will announce the EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending April 17.
On April 23 at 20:30, the US will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18.
Token Unlocking
YEY (YZY) will unlock 20.83 million tokens on April 18, worth approximately $6.39 million, accounting for 4.67% of the circulation.
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.7 million tokens on April 20, worth approximately $49.62 million, accounting for 5.34% of the circulation.
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 17.59 million tokens on April 20, worth approximately $8.64 million, accounting for 4.93% of the circulation.
SOON (SOON) will unlock 21.87 million tokens on April 23, worth approximately $5.73 million, accounting for 4.82% of the circulation.
Monad (MON) will unlock 170 million tokens on April 24, worth approximately $5.63 million, accounting for 0.34% of the circulation.
Humanity (H) will unlock 105 million tokens on April 25, worth approximately $12.51 million, accounting for 4.02% of the circulation.
Plasma (XPL) will unlock 88.89 million tokens on April 25, worth approximately $11.96 million, accounting for 3.83% of the circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We dissect market dynamics through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; utilizing our exclusive column Hotcoin Selection (dual selection of AI and experts) to spot potential assets and lower trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also engage with you live through live streams, interpreting hotspots and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and grasp the value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors carry out investments based on a thorough understanding of these risks and under a strict risk management framework to ensure the security of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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