The current market is at a critical turning point. Multiple independent technical indicators are gradually pointing to the same conclusion: the Bitcoin bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end or may even have already finished. Unlike the long and repeatedly bottoming bear market of 2022, this cycle has shown significant changes in market structure. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the phased alleviation of regulatory uncertainties have created an environment lacking in "passive excessive selling" during the price decline. At the same time, historically, Bitcoin rarely enters a unilateral uptrend without experiencing fluctuations, and it is currently more likely to be in a "consolidation phase after bottom confirmation."

In this context, the reference significance of a single indicator is limited, but when multiple signals begin to appear simultaneously, the conclusions they point to become clearer: the market is transitioning from a downward trend to a phase of turning point confirmation.

Convergence of Technical Signals: From Bottom Patterns to Trend Repair

From a technical structure perspective, the core change in this market cycle is the "signal resonance." First, the stochastic indicator on the weekly chart has returned above 20, a pattern that typically occurs after the worst phase of the market, historically more corresponding to bottom formation rather than a continuation of declines. Meanwhile, new trend signals have re-emerged, triggering again after failing to materialize in the previous two instances, significantly enhancing their reference value.

Second, the price of Bitcoin is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average (approximately $77,592), a level that has long been regarded as an important reference line for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. The current price is oscillating around $75,000, and regaining this range is likely just a matter of time. Once broken and stabilized, it will constitute a clear trend confirmation signal.

Additionally, the monthly RSI also shows the possibility of returning above the average line. Historically, this signal often appears near the bottom of a bear market. If this occurs again, it will further strengthen the judgment that the market has completed bottom formation. Overall, while these indicators hold limited significance when appearing individually, when they converge within the same time window, the market status has shifted from "continuation of downward trend" to "bottom structure gradually established."

Confirmation of Key Price Range: From Oscillation Repair to Upward Preparation

Beyond technical indicators, the price itself remains the most critical verification variable. The current market is testing the key range of $66,000–$73,000. The high point of approximately $73,084 in March 2024 has formed a mid-term top structure. If the price can effectively break through and stabilize within this range, it will indicate that the previous downward trend has been substantively reversed.

Structurally, this round of movement shows some similarities to a year ago: the market sharply plunged under external shocks, then entered a narrow oscillation before ultimately completing a trend switch through upward breakthrough. The price has now begun testing the upper bound of this range, and if this pace continues, an upward move towards $88,000 or even higher in the short term is not considered aggressive. Meanwhile, the level of $64,972 has become an important support level in the current phase. As long as the price stays above this level, the overall trend will gradually shift from neutral to bullish. Therefore, rather than determining whether the market has "entered a bull market," the more critical question is: can the price complete the range breakthrough to confirm the trend switch?

Currently, the market has five signals pointing in the same direction: the weekly stochastic indicator turning bullish, trend signals re-emerging, price approaching the 21-week moving average, the possibility of monthly RSI confirmation, and the previous downward trend having been effectively broken. A single signal is still insufficient for a definitive conclusion, but when these signals concentrate within the same phase, the credibility of their conclusions significantly increases. Overall, this bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end.

For the market, the focus is also shifting: the question is no longer whether Bitcoin will continue to repair but rather how the speed and space of an upward move will unfold once the trend truly switches. In this process, the breakthrough of price range and changes in the liquidity environment will become the most critical observation variables in the next stage.

The above opinions are sourced from BIT on Target,Contact us for the full report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market is risky; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may carry significant risk and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consulting a financial professional. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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