After watching Trump's speech yesterday, along with the comments from the soon-to-be-appointed new Federal Reserve Chair Waller, I had a new realization: chaos. The trend of Bitcoin yesterday was also very chaotic. First, Trump expressed hopes for interest rate cuts, even stating that the U.S. should be among the countries with the lowest global interest rates, but he also mentioned that interest rate hikes should be used to control inflation. This transmission to Bitcoin created a trend of falling first and then rising, which aligns perfectly with Waller's speech. Waller also mentioned that the Federal Reserve is an independent institution from the U.S. government and will not be influenced by Trump, but he also expressed that he is a candidate supportive of interest rate cuts, with a high degree of rhetorical skill, making it hard to discern his true intentions. This clearly conveys the internal chaos in America; perhaps they themselves do not know how to proceed. Even Trump's comments conveyed an uncertainty signal, with his original words indicating that he did not expect this round of military strikes to lead to a rise in U.S. stocks, with the initial expectation being a 20% drop.

This line of reasoning, I have also contemplated; raising interest rates controls inflation but is not beneficial to the circulation of funds. Lowering interest rates is favorable for fund circulation but will allow inflation to occur. A double-edged sword, the choice between them may turn into an option between heaven and hell; we do not have the ability to make this choice, we can only ensure our own risk control. In summary, this is still a favorable message, which can also be seen in today's market trend. The inflow situation of listed American companies into Bitcoin has reached $2.5 billion in a single week, the first time reaching this figure since it set a new high in December 2020. My previous expectations in April are getting closer; as long as this month can stabilize above last month's high of $76,000, the projected trend for this year should not deviate significantly. Only on a short-term level, the variables are too large, and the current market has the potential to crash at any moment, but it will not be the type of crash that triggers a circuit breaker; the depth of the situation remains within a controllable range.

I summarize: Bitcoin has now surpassed $78,000, and the depth of the pullback is not significant, indicating a considerable possibility of building momentum for another surge. The question to consider at this stage is whether military conflicts can end after breaching $80,000. Everyone must remember not to define things subjectively; that is, on a psychological level, do not set limits. Whether military conflict occurs or not, corresponding measures must be in place. The financial feedback is positive, indicating that military conflicts might very likely end (with a higher probability); this is the main reason reflected in U.S. economic data that Trump may end this round of conflict. The reasoning lies in the fact that the inflation data and U.S. stock performance have not been inflated or decreased due to this conflict; economic means can potentially recover from the setbacks caused by military conflicts. Later, I will elaborate on the relationship between the economy and the military; today I won’t expand on it, just consider it a kind reminder. After yesterday’s article was published about contract positioning, I also updated my social media where I tested if the $80,000 threshold could be breached. Currently, my long positions are still being held without any changes. Users who have profited following my articles are encouraged to remember the brilliance of this April and to refrain from criticizing me too harshly during misunderstandings. For users who have not entered the market, pay attention to the pullback depth in the $77,500 to $77,000 range; this could be a relatively good short-term entry point.

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