Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macroeconomic Market

The situation in the Middle East has changed again, with the Strait of Hormuz announcing its closure over the weekend, completely shattering the optimistic mood from last Friday's ceasefire. April 22 will mark the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, but Iranian officials have repeatedly denied participation in a new round of negotiations. Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield stated that amid the tug-of-war between peace negotiations and the closure of the strait, Asian stock traders are being forced to revert to a defensive posture. The stock markets in Japan and South Korea, as well as A-shares and other Asia-Pacific risk assets, are facing severe tests of sentiment in the short term.

US stock index futures fell across the board, Brent crude oil surged 7.9% to $97.80 per barrel at market opening, while WTI crude oil rose over 7% to about $90. European natural gas futures surged over 11% at one point. Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicts that high gasoline prices will persist until next year, rendering the previously proposed "financial bombardment" and "pre-summer relief" arguments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ineffective. Sarah Hunt from Alpine Woods also emphasized that unless ships are actually seen passing through the strait, the market will remain volatile.

Furthermore, the confirmation hearing for Fed chairman candidate Kevin Warsh will be the focus of this week, with market expectations for interest rate cuts narrowing to just 5 basis points.

Bitcoin Market

With Iran rejecting the second round of negotiations and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin quickly retreated from a ten-week high of $78,400 to around $74,000 to $75,000. It is noteworthy that although price volatility is severe, the 30-day volatility index is only 1.75%. Galaxy's research director Alex Thorn pointed out that the volatility and upside potential of this cycle (maximum increase of 97%) has dramatically weakened compared to the previous three halving cycles. Currently, the two massive gaps left by CME at 77.3K and 67.2K are strongly influencing the short-term price trend.

Bearish Viewpoints

The bearish camp believes that macro geopolitical risks and weakening technicals are resonating, leading to liquidity exhaustion at high levels and the gravitational pull of CME gaps will force Bitcoin to search downward for support.

• Sykodelic: The weekly close was weak, with the 3-day line and weekly line both showing SFP (Swing Failure Pattern). Currently, it has broken below the bullish structure of the higher time frame at $74,400, making the probability of a downward search for a low greater than continuing upward.

• Donaxbt: The price failed to reclaim $74,500, which is an absolute bearish signal.

• CrypNuevo: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has put the situation in a deadlock; we have shorted at $78,000 and expect Bitcoin to remain in a range-bound oscillation for the next month.

• KillaXBT: Bullish momentum is declining, and the CME gaps at 77.3K and 67.2K pose hidden risks; a breakout upwards is likely to be false, followed by a bullish cleanout.

• Whale Factor: There is nearly $9 billion in long liquidation at $67,180, and the CME gap is a huge price magnet, as the market usually hunts liquidity before rising.

• Jason Pizzino: The cycle bottom target has been adjusted to the range of $40,000-$55,000; chart trends always take precedence over subjective expectations.

• TedPillows: After Iran rejected a second round of peace negotiations with the US, Bitcoin directly fell below $74,000.

Bullish Viewpoints

The bullish camp emphasizes that the repair of the chip structure and the support from on-chain buying are solidifying the bottom. A short-term pullback is merely to gain better momentum for an upward attack.

• Murphy: Bitcoin is currently filling the "cursed" gap between $72,000 and $80,000, with nearly 200,000 BTC changing hands between $76,000 and $77,000 in just two days. The thick "chip wall" will significantly reduce the probability of a price crash.

• LP: The order book shows buy support below; if the demand zone at $72,000 can stabilize, it will lay the foundation for a rise in early May. Additionally, the correlation of the pivot from Monday to Thursday is still in effect.

• that1618guy: The CPS indicator remains strong above 0.57, providing a good safety margin and leaning towards sideways consolidation in the short term.

• AlphaBTC: Weekend CME gaps often fill rapidly at the beginning of the week; looking forward to the two-sided gap filling after the US market opens.

Ethereum Market

After breaking above $2,400, Ethereum faced continued pressure due to market pullbacks and the hack incident involving the Kelp DAO cross-chain bridge, which triggered a DeFi chain crisis. Notable KOL Ansem stated that Ethereum's investment logic has gradually weakened in recent years, with retail investors migrating to other ecosystems such as Solana, and Rollup lacks practical applications. He warned that ETH has fallen into a sustained downtrend, and if it breaks below the support level of $2,377, it may further drop to the low of $1,300 in 2025.

Additionally, trader TurboBullCapital noted that the breakout of Ethereum above $2,400 was a false breakout, currently focusing on buying opportunities around $2,190 during the pullback or waiting for the price to regain above $2,400 before looking to enter altcoins.

Market Dynamics

Over the weekend, the price of RAVE tokens plummeted from a historic high of $28 to $0.44, a drop of over 98%, almost retracing all gains since April 9. On-chain detective ZachXBT pointed out that there is a high level of control and manipulation in the market for RAVE tokens, with 95% of the supply controlled by a few addresses. Currently, ZachXBT has offered a reward of $25,000, calling for exchanges like Binance and Bitget to intervene in the investigation.

Drift was recently hacked for about $285 million, and the DeFi re-staking protocol Kelp DAO once again set a record for stolen amounts in the crypto industry this year. Hackers exploited vulnerabilities in the LayerZero-related contract to withdraw about 116,500 rsETH, equivalent to around $292 million at current prices, accounting for 18% of the circulating supply of rsETH. The ZRO token dropped nearly 30% over the weekend but has since turned a decrease into an increase.

Protocols like Aave and SparkLend urgently froze the rsETH market, and the AAVE token faced panic selling from several whales due to concerns about bad debts, dropping more than 20% over the weekend. Some lending demand has flowed into Spark and other protocols, pushing Spark's ETH deposit rate to spike to 130%; its SPK token also saw a surge of over 50%, reaching its highest point since November 2025.

Key Data (as of April 20, 13:00 HKT)

(Source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

• Bitcoin ETF: Net inflow of $996 million last week, achieving net inflow for three consecutive weeks.

• Ethereum ETF: Net inflow of $276 million last week.

• SOL ETF: Net inflow of $35.17 million last week.

• XRP ETF: Net inflow of $55.39 million last week.

• Fear and Greed Index: 29 (Fear).

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: PIEVERSE, XRP, BTC, ETH, BLUR.

• Sector Gains and Losses: The crypto market mostly corrected, but sectors such as SocialFi and AI saw slight increases.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 120,536 people were liquidated globally, with total liquidation amounting to $321 million, including $103 million for BTC, $91.57 million for ETH, and $11.41 million for RAVE.

Today's Outlook

• Tennessee's strategic Bitcoin reserve bill will hold a Senate hearing on April 20.

• OpenGradient will open the OPG token claim window on April 20.

• Binance will launch MSFT, AVGO, and BABA perpetual contracts denominated in USD on April 21.

• The confirmation hearing for Fed chairman nominee Warsh is scheduled for April 21.

• Coinbase will suspend trading for 25 perpetual contracts on April 21.

• US customs: tariff refunds will begin on April 20, potentially reaching 1 trillion yuan.

• Sandisk officially joins the Nasdaq 100 index (April 20, 16:00).

• KAITO (KAITO) will unlock approximately 17.6 million tokens on April 20, worth about $8.1 million.

• LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens on April 20, worth about $40.4 million.

Top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: JUST up 7.2%, Chiliz up 6.5%, LayerZero up 5.7%, Siren up 4.8%, Canton Network up 3.4%.

Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as ZRO, H, XPL will face large unlocks, with ZRO unlocking worth about $40.4 million.

• This week's preview | The confirmation hearing for Fed chairman nominee Warsh is scheduled for April 21; the 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival will open.

• Upbit will list PIEVERSE tokens in KRW, BTC, and USDT markets.

• A whale that took profit on $398 million long positions four days ago has re-entered the market and opened 44,000 ETH long positions.

• Aave: Out of caution, rsETH remains frozen on Aave V3 and V4, and the affected market's WETH reserves also remain frozen.

• DefiLlama founder proposes three handling paths and corresponding potential bad debt scale for the Kelp DAO incident.

• Analyst: Aave has seen outflows of $10.1 billion due to the rsETH incident.

• RAVE initial allocation-related multi-signature address deposited 23 million tokens into Bitget, and then the price fell by 40%.

• 8.253 million TRUMP were transferred from a BitGo custody wallet to OKX, valued at $23.44 million.

• A user achieved a return of over 1,700 times by trading ASTEROID within two days.

• Musk agrees to fulfill the late girl's wish of making "ASTEROID as SpaceX's mascot"; the meme coin of the same name briefly surged.

• The Kelp DAO cross-chain bridge was attacked, with approximately $292 million of rsETH withdrawn.

• RaveDAO denies manipulating RAVE prices: intends to introduce a lock-up mechanism and sell tokens as planned for operations.

• Galaxy's research director: Among the 518 Bitcoin addresses sanctioned by the US, about 9,306 BTC are still held.

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