The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for the benefits! Hello everyone, I am your friend Old Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to deliver the most valuable cryptocurrency market information to the broad community of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Welcome to everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smokescreens!

First, let me report on this week's operations. A total of five trades with one stop loss. Yesterday, the positions reached the take profit level, and basically all were concluded, but Old Cui's trades are still held in the market. The reason is very simple. Previously, there was a report that the U.S. was preparing military actions against Iran and at midnight, Trump suddenly released good news. Two pieces of good news: one emphasizes the need to lower interest rates again, and the second is that Iran is willing to give up nuclear weapons research and promises not to intervene for twenty years, with Trump also mentioning that conditions for negotiations will be announced soon; both of these points are significant good news on the military front. With the movement of the market, the announced preparations for military action may just be a smokescreen. This is also the core reason for the sudden reversal of the market after last night's decline. This surge is of utmost importance in Old Cui's eyes, especially the concentrated explosion of small coins during this round, such as SOL breaking through 90, OKB breaking through 87, and BNB reaching 646.

Currently, liquidity in the cryptocurrency market is not an issue at all, so there is no need for everyone to worry too much about this aspect; Old Cui is not sure how everyone views the financial market, but financial market indicators are extremely important, especially the data released by the U.S. Many friends have a major misconception about investing, thinking that as long as data circulation in the cryptocurrency market is normal, cryptocurrency prices should be in a growth state, which is not the case. For example, in the stock market, the graphics cards that are currently quite hot remain scarce; the rise in graphics card prices is merely a catalyst, it has never been the case that the rise in graphics card prices means that Nvidia will appreciate. Whether the market can start requires three key elements: supply-demand gap, capital recognition, and real assets; only the resonance of these three can initiate a market movement. If it’s just short-term speculation and the stock price itself is at a high point, then a major problem arises: profits are cashed out in advance, and even if the price-to-earnings ratio rises, stocks may easily decline.

Nvidia is a very typical example. At the time of reaching a market value of five trillion, Old Cui reminded everyone that investing in Nvidia should not be primarily about returns but rather about whether Nvidia is worth a market value of five trillion. This concept can also be applied to the cryptocurrency market, represented by SOL: on-chain data surged to 1.1 trillion dollars, monthly active addresses hit a historical high of 16.7 million, and BlackRock and Fidelity secretly bought a substantial amount, even potential nominees for the Federal Reserve chairman indirectly hold it—yet, what about the price? It fell from 293 to 83, a decline of 71%. Solana's first quarter economic activity was 1.1 trillion dollars, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28%, with monthly active addresses of 16.7 million reaching a historical high. The stablecoin market value is 15.6 billion, and DEX trading volume has been the number one across the chain for seven consecutive months. According to traditional financial investment concepts, neither of these two has shown fatal bad news, yet the price experienced a deep correction. Why did this happen?

These two share a commonality; the bubble of real assets is quite heavy. Nvidia, in order to maintain its stock price, has launched trends in robotics, AI, and even future technologies, but the cost of achieving these realistic goals is too high. Investors tend to seek profit and avoid harm; if they don’t see growth in the short term, they naturally withdraw. SOL is the same. Although it has received strong backing from the U.S., the practical drawbacks are also very evident, unable to handle a large amount of computation and prone to crashes. This is very fatal and directly makes it difficult for large funds to decide, as the safety isn't as high as Ethereum. After Trump pushed the cryptocurrency price to 295, it began to decline. The impact of public opinion is too great. For Old Cui, he is relatively optimistic about Bitcoin compared to SOL's prospects. These three cryptocurrencies still have the potential to hit new highs this year; even if it fails this year, 2027-2028 will be a year of explosion. I have mentioned this many times; it has always been a choice available for purchase in the trend.

Returning to the mid-line perspective, Bitcoin has broken through the 78000 mark. Old Cui sees the current pressure toward 80000 increasing. A ceasefire on the military front will become an important indicator for the mid-term rebound. Today, the significant support can all be attributed to Trump’s efforts in releasing numerous ceasefire signals. There's also a very interesting point that can corroborate the favorable signal of ceasefire, which occurred right when the cryptocurrency market was struggling upwards: a U.S. senator requested the Justice Department to explain the compliance oversight situation of Binance. Previous reports indicated that internal investigators at Binance had warned about over 1 billion dollars flowing to wallets related to Iran, but were subsequently fired. Is this the U.S. finally stepping in to target the cryptocurrency market? On a related note, for those involved in foreign trade, please pay more attention to the exchange rate. Recently, Iran in the Middle East has adopted CNY to settle oil; you also need to have a financial sense, as this will directly lead to the appreciation of CNY. If you do not require stablecoins in the near future, it may be wise to withdraw.

This article has taken nearly three days to form. As I write, the market is gradually rising. Bitcoin has once again broken through 79000. Do you think 80000 is still far away? The three major indices of U.S. stocks continue to grow, and the depreciation of the dollar is essentially the demand of the U.S. itself. In the future, there may be a new round of market emergence in the cryptocurrency space; remember not to blindly turn bearish again. The depreciation of the dollar is linked to the utilization of dollar assets, encouraging everyone to invest more in dollar assets, which is a typical case of exchanging market for economy. Regarding the interest rate hike issue, earlier discussions may have been excessive, there is no possibility of a rate hike this year, and it will remain in the rate-cutting cycle. Instead of worrying about this, it is better to focus on military news, as only military matters can affect short-term trends. The mentioned skepticism by the U.S. toward Binance may affect the subsequent trend of BNB; for those with positions in such cryptocurrencies, be sure to pay attention.

Old Cui concludes: Currently, the amount of capital in the market is already sufficient to support the overall upward movement of cryptocurrency prices, especially with SOL's overall market cap now three times that of the previous stage, which also indicates that the next wave of the market could exceed everyone's expectations. The critical node for the market's initiation actually occurred in March of this year; by the end of the month, Old Cui had already reminded everyone that it was time to buy! If the previous cautious stance on spot investments still exists, then after this attack on 80000, there will still be opportunities for everyone to enter the market, but it certainly won't be lower than last month; the purchase of spots mainly depends on the price you can accept. For Old Cui, Bitcoin below 100000 is considered worth investing, not to mention around 70000. The average purchase price of capital is also around 74000-75000, which is a great entry point if it’s slightly below MicroStrategy. As for contract users, it's the weekend, so be a bit more cautious. With the current prices, if you want to enter, it is still a choice of long positions, with take-profit positions at 500-1000 points.

Old Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can foresee five, seven, or even dozens of steps ahead, while a less skilled player can only see two or three steps. The expert considers the bigger picture and strategizes for the greater trend, not focusing solely on individual pieces or positions, aiming for the ultimate victory. The less skilled will fight for every inch of ground, frequently switching between bullish and bearish positions, targeting short-term gains, resulting in frequent troubles.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

Original work created by WeChat official account: Old Cui Talks Cryptocurrency. For assistance, please feel free to contact directly.

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