As predicted yesterday, the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has met Iran's conditions for unlocking the Strait of Hormuz. Today, Iran announced the permanent unsealing of the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, this "permanent" is mostly just words because Trump has stated that the blockade of Iranian ports will continue. Iran has made it clear that if the U.S. continues the blockade, Iran will lock the Strait of Hormuz again. So, there is no such thing as forever.

However, with Iran's unsealing, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has started to increase. Still, the safety of this maritime area remains to be tested. Iran has also clearly stated that it is only unsealing but does not provide any guarantees for safety. The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are currently progressing well, and today Trump announced that Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons, indicating that negotiations are moving in a positive direction.

The market feedback is also very positive, hoping to quickly end the geopolitical conflicts. There are still many issues awaiting Trump, on one hand, the aftermath of the IEPA tariffs, and on the other hand, the positioning of the Federal Reserve Chairman. Ultimately, it comes down to the midterm elections.

Returning to the data on Bitcoin, as the price rises, the turnover rate has significantly increased, suggesting that short-term investors are gradually exiting. However, the trading volume is still decent, indicating that investors' purchases have increased with the end of the U.S. and Iran war. Moreover, the data structure looks very stable, with neither profit-taking investors nor early loss investors showing significant fluctuations.

Investors who are holding and observing are still the dominant force at this stage.

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