On Wednesday, it felt like the conflict between Iran and the United States was showing signs of improvement. Today, Israel and Lebanon also reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, which removes the reason for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran does not block the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will not block Iranian ports, and the tense emotions should ease.

However, even though the risk market has already started celebrating in advance, both WTI and Brent crude are rising, and even the dollar is up. I did not find any bearish information upon review, and even Trump, who has remained silent about extending the ceasefire, has started to speak up today. Theoretically, the market sentiment is still good, and the reason for the rebound in oil prices is still unclear.

But if Iran can unblock the Strait of Hormuz, a decline in oil prices should be very likely. Not to mention it would still be a truce between the United States and Iran. Additionally, I have always emphasized that even with a ceasefire, this war is not the main reason for hindering the risk market, especially for $BTC. The focus should still be on monetary policy.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the chip structure remains very stable. Although trading volume is declining, the turnover rate is also decreasing, further proving that low prices have made it difficult for investors to part with their holdings. I have previously emphasized that investors have a strong interest in BTC below $70,000, and it indeed seems to be the case. At this stage, the competition among investors is still about a comprehensive ceasefire between Iran and the United States, as well as falling oil prices.

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