Author: Weisha Zhu

The Bitcoin market has become deeply institutionalized, with significant strengthening of its correlation with traditional finance (especially the US tech sector). Spot Bitcoin ETFs and CME futures have emerged as core tools for price discovery, reducing the influence of retail investors and miners on selling. This has weakened the traditional "complete on-chain surrender + sharp bottom drop" model, and the bottom formation may shift towards a gentle U-shaped bottom or prolonged sideways consolidation. However, bottom detection still requires multiple indicators to resonate, and should not rely on a single signal or simple historical analogy.

Current market context (as of mid-April 2026): Bitcoin's price fluctuates around $74,000 (recently oscillating in the $71,000-$76,000 range), having retraced more than 40% from the 2025 high (around $126,000). Market opinions are divided: some analysts believe the major bottom has yet to appear (with a minimum estimate of $35,000-$45,000), while others view $60,000 as strong support (analogous to the rapid rebound after the spike down to $16,000 in the previous cycle).

Core controversy: Simply relying on historical trends is no longer sufficient—macroeconomic factors such as shifts in Federal Reserve policy, institutional rebalancing, and the significant proportion of ETF holdings in circulating supply have profoundly changed market structure. A short-term drop below $60,000 as a "spike down" remains possible, but institutional buying provides strong support, reducing the probability of a deep crash; conversely, if macro risks escalate (signals of recession or downward resonance in the stock market), prices may dip to the realized price (around $61,000) or lower.

1. On-Chain Metrics—Reliable Signals of Holder Behavior

On-chain data remains a core dimension for assessing "real surrender." Currently, Bitcoin has not yet entered a stage of widespread panic:

• Realized Price: approximately $61,000. The current market price remains above it, with most holders still in profit, not reaching the surrender threshold of deep losses for the majority.

• MVRV Z-Score: Recently around 0.67, within the opportunity range, but has not yet entered the extremely undervalued green deep zone common at historical bottoms (past bottoms often below 0 or negative values). The peak in 2025 was only about 2.5, far below the 3.5+ frenzied levels of previous cycles, indicating a relatively mild current bull market.

• Puell Multiple: approximately 0.73 (below 1.0), reflecting that miner income is below the long-term average, with selling pressure having temporarily eased but not reached extreme levels.

• Other indicators: Profit/Loss supply, NUPL, etc. still show some unrealized gains, with no large-scale selling by long-term holders.

Debate on views: Pure crypto experience indicates there is still room for further decline (requiring prices to effectively break below the realized price or significant Z-Score decline). However, institutionalization has changed the rules—ETF holdings are less likely to panic sell, and miner accumulation patterns (negative MPI) provide some support. If the Federal Reserve shifts to easing or liquidity improves, on-chain indicators could stabilize at higher price levels; conversely, continued tightening would amplify downward pressure.

2. Technical Analysis Indicators

Technical analysis is suitable for providing right-side confirmation but needs to be used in conjunction with macro signals:

• RSI: Watch for monthly or weekly lines dropping below 30 (oversold), or for bullish divergence (price makes new lows but RSI does not).

• Moving Averages: The 200-week moving average is historical strong support, currently around $59,000-$61,000 and slowly moving upward. Bitcoin rarely falls significantly below this line for long periods.

• MACD and Volume: The fast line crossing above the slow line (bullish cross) accompanied by amplified volume can confirm potential reversals.

• Price Patterns: Forming double bottoms, arc bottoms, or prolonged sideways after the last dip, effective after breaking the neckline.

Additional: High volume nodes (Volume Profile) within the overlapping area of the 200-week moving average create potential strong support. The current price near $74,000 still has some buffer space.

Bottom signals: Multi-time frame resonance + volume amplification confirming right side.

3. Market Sentiment and Macro Signals

Bitcoin has become a typical "high beta risk asset," closely linked to Nasdaq/tech stocks, with a correlation near zero with gold. Traditional capital has deeply entered through ETFs, and the futures market is institutionally dominated. The bottom is no longer purely the result of retail panic, but rather the outcome of multiple market resonances.

• Correlation with US tech stocks (Bitcoin-Nasdaq Correlation) has seen the rolling 30-day correlation coefficient reach 0.72-0.80 multiple times in 2026 (historical high), while the 90-day coefficient remains relatively low (around 0.15). Bitcoin performs like a "leveraged tech stock," driven by interest rates, liquidity, and inflation expectations. Bottom signals: The correlation weakens from high levels, briefly turning negative, or BTC diverges significantly from QQQ/NVDA (BTC holds up or rebounds independently). This often indicates that Bitcoin starts to "decouple" from macro risk aversion, entering the institutional accumulation phase. However, decoupling does not mean an immediate bottom, and confirmation signals like ETF inflows are still needed. Historical experience shows that periods of negative correlation often correspond to turning points of relative strength for BTC.

• Depth of US traditional capital involvement (Institutional Capital via ETFs): Spot Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC, etc.) have become core to liquidity and price discovery. March 2026 recorded about $1.3 billion net inflow, ending several months of outflows; early April saw strong single-day inflow (e.g., on April 9, a total of about $358 million, with IBIT approximately $269 million on that day). BlackRock and others have a massive cumulative holding size. Debate on views: The reversal of March inflows is seen as a signal of traditional capital (pensions, RIAs, hedge funds) "quietly building positions," indicating that the current price level is viewed by some institutions as an acceptable entry point. ETF flows far exceed daily miner supply, becoming the marginal buying force, leading to a softening of market volatility. However, the inflow pace in April still shows fluctuations, indicating demand remains relatively weak. Additional: If inflows accelerate (weekly inflows exceed $1 billion) and continue, along with macro easing, the probability of a bottom significantly increases; conversely, ongoing outflows will prolong the bottoming process. Institutionalization makes bottom characteristics more "gentle"—rare retail-style panic selling, but macro shocks may still trigger orderly pullbacks.

• Futures market control and characteristics: The leading market is still CME Bitcoin futures (institutional choice), rather than retail-dominated perpetual contracts. The latest COT report shows a high proportion of non-commercial (Managed Money/hedge funds, etc.) holdings, with significant increases in long positions; commercial ones primarily for real risk hedging; retail/non-reported positions are low. Characteristics: Institutionalization and hedging orientation are apparent—cash-and-carry arbitrage was once prevalent, but as the basis narrows, open interest (OI) is relatively low (around 22,000 contracts), with leverage effectively cleaned up, making market structure healthier. Perpetual contracts provide supplemental liquidity, but the weight of price discovery has shifted to CME+ETF. Bottom signals: Stabilizing open interest at low levels + increases in asset management long positions + speculative short covering after extreme positions. The 2026 futures market has become an important barometer for traditional capital.

4. Four-Year Halving Cycle Pattern (Reference Value Diminished)

The four-year halving cycle will not completely lose effect, but institutionalization has weakened its influence. This current bull market is longer than the previous one, and the bear market may end as early as around October 2026 (or experience longer consolidation). History shows that bottoms typically occur around 18–24 months after halving, but in this cycle, influenced by ETFs and other factors, the timeline may be advanced.

Point of contention: Do not overly rely on cyclical patterns—macro shocks can break historical models. Currently in an adjustment/consolidation phase, it is recommended to focus on position layout before the next halving in 2028.

Multi-Factor Resonance Summary: Bitcoin bottoms often occur when multiple factors such as BTC diverging from tech stocks + ETF inflows recovering + low futures leverage coincide. US macro policies (Federal Reserve interest rate path, inflation expectations, liquidity conditions) remain the primary focus. If Bitcoin lending is widely accepted by banks, or if the Federal Reserve clearly shifts to easing, $60,000 may become an "invisible bottom"; conversely, persistently high interest rates or geopolitical risks will amplify downward pressure. Currently, on-chain has not fully surrendered, and macro uncertainty remains high, so it is recommended to wait for right-side confirmation signals.

Monitoring Checklist

• Bullish/bottom confirmation signals: ETF continuous accelerated net inflows + BTC decoupling from tech stocks + on-chain MVRV Z-Score entering extremely low area + technical right-side breakout + significant macro policy improvement.
• Risk warning: Correlation maintaining high levels + persistent ETF outflows + on-chain not fully surrendered → there may still be downside space (including breaking below $60,000 spikes, but institutional support may lead to quicker rebounds).

Bottom assessment for Bitcoin is essentially a multi-dimensional dynamic process, rather than precise price prediction. As the market becomes more institutionalized, the analytical framework must continue to evolve. Continuous monitoring of Glassnode, Farside Investors (ETF flows), CME COT reports, and Federal Reserve policy dynamics is recommended.

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