The first round of negotiations between the US and Iran on November 11-12 failed. The cryptocurrency market rose before the negotiations and fell sharply after their failure. However, right after the failed negotiations, a second round is about to arrive, and the market has once again begun to rebound, breaking recent daily high points, currently showing a sideways oscillation at high levels. This has been accompanied by a significant surge caused by the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. First, we need to understand a logic: this is a typical case of expectation discrepancy combined with speculation, selling facts, and precise blockades resulting in a triple reversal. The key truth is that the US has not blocked the global oil routes, only the Iranian ports. The purpose of the blockade is to pressure negotiations and force Iran to make concessions; the market believes that Iran's oil revenue will soon be constrained and it will quickly return to negotiations and compromise.

Secondly, we need to understand another logic: negotiations are not an outcome, but a process, and this process will be infinitely magnified, with more negotiations expected to follow until the market becomes indifferent to the negotiations. Why do I say this? Historically, the US has not solved problems through a single negotiation during external wars, but rather through many rounds of negotiations, with fighting and talking simultaneously. For instance, the Korean War involved over 890 rounds of negotiations, and the Vietnam War over 170 negotiations; including the subsequent Gulf War and Afghan War, none of them reached resolutions through just one or two negotiations. In fact, there are still ongoing negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict that have taken place no less than ten times. So, do you expect a handshake between the US and Iran after just one or two negotiations?

Returning to the current issue, the probability of the US and Iran reaching a comprehensive, permanent agreement is very low (around 10%–15%). The probability of reaching a limited temporary compromise (a ceasefire + partial thaw) is relatively high (around 60%–70%). The likelihood of negotiations collapsing and returning to full confrontation is about 20%–30%. The current disagreements are as follows: 1. The US demands Iran to completely abandon uranium enrichment, become permanently nuclear-free, and accept comprehensive inspections (Trump's "non-negotiable red line"). Iran, on the other hand, wants to retain its rights to peaceful nuclear energy, not to give up 60% enrichment, and opposes unlimited inspections. 2. The Strait of Hormuz issue: The US wants international waters, joint control, and a prohibition of tolls, while Iran hopes for Iran-led control, the ability to charge fees, and safety guaranteed by Iran. 3. Sanctions and compensation: The US: phased easing, not complete lifting, no compensation. Iran: immediate comprehensive cancellation of sanctions and compensation for the war from the US. 4. Israel and proxies: The US: difficult to restrain Israel, does not commit to protecting Iran. Iran: The US must restrain Israel and stop attacks.

In the short term, comprehensive peace is unlikely; a truce combined with minor concessions is the most probable delaying pattern. A comprehensive agreement is almost impossible, and the risk of negotiations collapsing always exists.

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