Original author: ChandlerZ, Foresight News
On April 14, BTC rose from around $70,500 all the way back above $74,000, while ETH increased by 7.63%, reporting about $2,367. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rebounded to approximately $2.52 trillion, with Bitcoin's market value maintaining a share between 57% and 58%.
According to data from Alternative.me, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index rose to 21 today (up from 12 yesterday, indicating "extreme fear"), suggesting the market is in a state of "extreme fear". Early April saw it drop to a low of 8, a rare reading since 2022.
In traditional financial markets, the S&P 500 rose by 1.02% to 6,886 points, recovering all losses since the U.S.-Iran conflict began and breaking above the February 27 closing level of 6,878 points. The Nasdaq increased by 1.23%, achieving a nine-day consecutive rise, setting a record for the longest consecutive gain since September 2025. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index set a new closing high for four consecutive days, surpassing 9,000 for the first time in history.
Oil prices saw significant fluctuations during the day, with Abu Dhabi Murban crude reaching as high as $106.49 per barrel, but as expectations for peace talks warmed, WTI crude fell back to $99.08 by the close, and Brent settled at $99.36, both failing to hold the $100 mark. Gold slightly fell by 0.21% to $4,739. The dollar index decreased by 0.24%, hitting a new low in over a month, while the offshore yuan recorded seven consecutive gains, rising above 6.82, reaching a three-year high.
The U.S. and Iran are still in contact, and the market is betting on détente
During Asian trading hours, negotiations in Islamabad from April 11 to 12 lasted over 20 hours but ended in failure, with both sides returning empty-handed after disagreements focused on Iran's nuclear program and uranium enrichment red lines. Following the breakdown of talks, Trump announced that U.S. forces would immediately begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz, effective April 13 at 8 PM, targeting all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports.
After the blockade order took effect, Trump stated on social media that any Iranian fast attack boats near the blockade zone would be "immediately destroyed." Oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar all jumped simultaneously in early Asian trading.
Late in the Asian session, Trump told the media at the White House, "This morning, the right people, the appropriate people, called us, and they want to reach an agreement." He did not specify who participated in the call. Nearly simultaneously, Bloomberg cited informed sources saying that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a second round of face-to-face negotiations, with the goal of reaching a long-term ceasefire agreement before the two-week ceasefire announced on April 7 expires.
According to the Russian news agency RIA Novosti citing The Atlantic Monthly, the next round of negotiations may take place on April 16 in Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif stated that all parties are working to resolve the outstanding issues between the U.S. and Iran, with officials from Turkey and Egypt also involved in mediation.
Polymarket's latest data indicates a 6% increase in the probability of a permanent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran before April 30, bringing it to 23%, while the likelihood of reaching an agreement before May 31 has dropped to 38%.
As a result, oil prices made a standard V-shaped movement; the blockade news pushed Murban crude to $106.49 during the Asia-Pacific session, but the expectations for peace talks limited the gains, causing WTI to fall back to $99.08, dropping below the $100 mark. The decline in oil prices marked the starting point of risk appetite recovery for the day, as lower oil prices eased inflation expectations and temporarily alleviated interest rate pressures, allowing for some rebound in risk assets.
The dollar also opened high but turned to decline. The ICE dollar index fell by 0.24% at the close, with the Bloomberg dollar index dropping to its lowest since March 3. The weakening dollar created short-term tailwinds for BTC.
Bitcoin spot market shows strong bullish sentiment in the short term
The Bitcoin market showed significant upward momentum, with price momentum increasing from 47.7 to 72.4, currently surpassing the high-frequency band at 58.4, exceeding previous highs, indicating that the market is experiencing strong upward momentum. The spot market also reflected this bullish sentiment, with the spot CVD rising sharply from $34.4 million to $63.9 million, exceeding the high-frequency band of $33.4 million, indicating aggressive buying activity in the spot market, with strong bullish sentiment in the short term, and buying pressure increasing.
The spot trading volume increased from $5.3 billion to $6.3 billion, with trading activity improving, but still below the lower bound of the high-frequency band at $6.8 billion, indicating that participation has increased but has not yet reached peak levels, and the upward movement has some capital support but is not yet fully adequate.
Meanwhile, the futures market has also shown higher speculative interest and leverage levels, with open interest growing by 7.2%. However, the market has also shown signs of caution, with short positions increasing and long capital payments decreasing by 198.6%.
From a profitability perspective, market pressure has eased, unrealized losses have decreased, and the proportion of circulating Bitcoin in profit has increased. The shift from losses to profits indicates a positive change in investor sentiment. Overall, various indicators collectively suggest that the market is showing strong bullish sentiment, increased investor participation, and enhanced risk appetite, although there are also signs of caution and market stabilization.
Looking ahead for the cryptocurrency market
The core question facing BTC after crossing $74,000 remains whether this is a reversal or a rebound?
From the positioning structure, there is currently a large accumulation of short positions in the $72,200 to $73,500 range. Analysts quoted by Finance Magnates state that BTC needs two conditions to briefly hit $80,000: first, the liquidation of the short positions in this range triggering a cascading effect (involving about $6 billion in short positions); second, sustained inflows of ETF funds combined with a maintained ceasefire.
At the same time, Coinglass data shows that the retail BTC long-short ratio on Binance is 0.7, indicating extreme bearishness. Historically, whenever the long-short ratio falls to around or below 1, BTC prices tend to be near phase lows, followed by a rapid rebound. Similar patterns have appeared in early 2024, September 2024, and early 2025, where highly crowded short positions were liquidated due to price increases, leading to a short squeeze with green bars sharply expanding.
The current position structure has similarities to these historical nodes, with BTC repeatedly tugging between $68,000 and $73,000, and short positions consistently accumulating under negative news stimuli such as the blockade order and negotiation breakdown, pushing the long-short ratio down to low levels. Once a clear catalyst appears, such as a second round of negotiations leading to an extended ceasefire, a price breakout upward will force the densely packed short positions to cover, forming cascading liquidations and amplifying the upward movement. The current position structure provides fuel for a potential short squeeze.
In terms of the ranking of short-term catalysts, the second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations expected to take place on April 16 is top priority. If a ceasefire is extended or a more long-term agreement framework is reached, a further decline in oil prices will ease inflation expectations and indirectly open up space for the Fed to cut rates. Secondly, the March PPI data, set to be released on April 14, if below expectations, will reinforce the narrative for rate cuts.
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