The focus today is on the negotiations between Iran and the United States in Pakistan, which indeed did not yield a result. However, this was somewhat to be expected; during the recent ceasefire, expectations were quite high, but after seeing Israel continue its attacks on Lebanon, the probability of reaching an agreement in one round has significantly decreased. As long as mutual attacks between the US and Iran have not resumed, the market is likely to remain somewhat optimistic.

The market remains cautiously optimistic in the short term, but this optimism could very well weaken with another rise in oil prices. Although WTI has been hovering around $98 for the past week, the risk market remains fairly optimistic. Whether this optimism can be sustained until next week is uncertain, so early Monday morning we will see the reactions from Asian investors through CME, and after the US opens, we will see the reactions from Europeans and Americans.

This weekend, Trump has stirred things up again with plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran, not being a soft target, is likely not to be pleased. Achieving a temporary ceasefire is good for both Iran and the US, and it is hoped that restraint can be maintained as much as possible, but opening the Strait of Hormuz may be difficult to accomplish in the short term.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, although there has been volatility over the weekend, it remains within a normal range. As I have been saying, this rebound is likely due to the ceasefire rather than a change in market trends. The reversal in the US and $BTC, especially in the entire cryptocurrency sector, may still depend on monetary policy.

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