Liquidity could become a headwind for BTC.

The Feb PCE showed the US consumer was already softening before the Iran war hit the data. Income contracted and real spending barely grew. Then March CPI printed 3.3% with energy driving three-quarters of the move.

Our US Policy LEI is rolling over, and it leads real yields by ~6 months. The last time we saw this setup was 2022: tightening monetary policy meeting an energy shock. BTC's correlation to real yields turned deeply negative that year.

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