For me personally, whether the stocks are real or not is not the most important thing; the most troublesome issue is that these issuers are independent, so each platform's mapped Token is different.
For example, the SpaceX sold on platform A might be SpaceX-A, and the one sold on platform B might be SpaceX-B. Although they are both called SpaceX, they are essentially not compatible, which can lead to significant differences in liquidity, depth, and actual transaction prices.
If the market reference price for SpaceX is $1,000.
Then on platform A, it might also display $1,000, but with poor depth, listing to sell at $1,000 might ultimately result in selling out at $800. When listing to buy at $1,000, the actual average transaction price might be driven up to $1,500.
On platform B, although the displayed price is also $1,000, due to better depth and stronger market making, the buy and sell prices might closely complete around $1,000.
So it seems quite unreliable, which is very normal. The issue is not just the price, but the differing capabilities of the market makers behind it. Large market makers will try to keep the price close to the reference price; smaller or less capable platforms will have a significantly larger spread between buy and sell prices.
What’s more troublesome is that because the issuers are different, the legal structures are different, and the clearing and redemption mechanisms are different, these Tokens are not compatible with each other, making it almost impossible to engage in risk-free arbitrage.
Furthermore, the biggest issue with SPV mapping is that there is usually no way to physically deliver. Even if one manages to catch a reference value SpaceX-A or SpaceX-B at $800, it does not mean one will definitely make money.
Whether one can make a profit does not depend on whether the platform will go bankrupt, but rather on whether the platform has sufficient depth and liquidity, whether there is a clear exit and redemption path, and whether there are still people willing to take over at a reasonable price.
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