Hello everyone, I am Sister Qinglan! Welcome to the Qinglan Crypto Class. Today, we will use the TPV three-point verification trading system that I have polished for a long time to analyze the current Bitcoin market thoroughly. It's all down-to-earth practical content!

Step 1: Look at the big direction (Overview of multi-period trends)
Let's organize the state of four periods:
Daily period: The trend is obviously bullish! The moving averages are arranged bullishly, MA5 is 72146.43, MA10 is 69978.67, MA30 is 69853.78. The current price is 72987.32, firmly standing above all moving averages, very strong. The key resistance is the previous high of 73434.0, support looks at the daily MA5 around 72146.43. On-chain sentiment is "extreme fear," with an index of only 15, which is a huge contrast to the price reaching new highs, indicating that retail investors are very scared, but big funds may be accumulating.
4-hour period: The trend is also bullish! Moving averages are arranged bullishly, MA5 is 72754.85, MA10 is 72315.10, MA30 is 70890.34. The current price is 72987.32, also above the moving averages. The key resistance is the previously mentioned 73434.0, support is at MA5 of 72754.85. In terms of sentiment, the total market value is 25.5 trillion, a slight increase of 0.89% over 24 hours, with funds still flowing in, resonating with the bullish trend of the 4-hour period.
1-hour period: The trend is fluctuating! Moving averages are intertwined, MA5 is 72969.22, MA10 is 73066.50, MA30 is 72398.20. The price of 72987.32 is hovering near the moving averages. A fluctuation range is formed here, with the upper resistance at 73434.0 and the lower support at 72670.0. News about "BlackRock's large transfer" and "whales accumulating" may provide a monetary explanation for this high position fluctuation.
15-minute period: The trend is slightly bearish! The moving averages are arranged bearishly, MA5 is 72863.05, MA10 is 72881.45, MA30 is 73014.41. The current price is 72987.32, just rebounding to the MA30 moving average area, facing pressure. This is a typical short-term adjustment pattern, contrasting with the strong performance of the larger periods.

Step 2: Find pivot points, draw key lines (Effective high and low points + trend lines)
Let's find the key turning points for each period:
Daily: The effective high point (Pivot High) is 73434.0 (the highest price in the 4-hour and 1-hour periods), confirmed effective by subsequent prices. The effective low point (Pivot Low) is 72670.0 (the end of the lowest price sequence in the 1-hour period). Draw an upward trend line from the low point, strong support.
4-hour: The effective high point is also 73434.0. The effective low point is 72700.6 (in the 4-hour lowest price sequence). Prices encountered significant resistance near the high point of 73434.0.
1-hour: Effective high point is 73434.0, effective low point is 72670.0. The current price is fluctuating within this range, retreating after touching the high point resistance.
15-minute: Recent effective low point is 72787.94 (the end of the 15-minute lowest price sequence), effective high point is 72987.55 (the end of the 15-minute highest price sequence). A smaller fluctuation box is formed.
The news stating "Bitcoin approaches $75,000" and "breaks $73,000 threshold" corresponds exactly to the resistance area of 73434.0, indicating very high market attention.

Step 3: Indicators provide support (Technical indicator verification)
Let's see what the indicators say:
Daily: The MACD histogram is 608.63, showing very strong bullish momentum! RSI is 77.14, already in the overbought area, signaling short-term pullback risk. This verifies the strong price but also reminds us not to chase highs.
4-hour: The MACD histogram is 44.77, also positive, showing bullish momentum. RSI is 69.09, close to overbought but not extreme. Indicators support the upward trend.
1-hour: The MACD histogram is -12.41, which is negative! DIF is 322.09, DEA is 334.50, with the fast line below the slow line, showing weakened momentum. RSI is 64.22, neutral to strong. This indicates that the bullish momentum at the 1-hour level is weakening, indicating a need for adjustment.
15-minute: The MACD histogram is -13.72, DIF is -18.27, DEA is -4.55, indicating clear bearish momentum. RSI is 48.08, weakly neutral. This fully conforms to its bearish arrangement trend.
There is a slight divergence here: the daily and 4-hour are strong (indicators strong), but the 1-hour and 15-minute are starting to weaken (indicators weak), this inconsistency between larger and smaller periods often indicates a short-term fluctuation or pullback.

Step 4: Tug of war between bulls and bears (News + On-chain)

1. News:
   Positive factors: Large transfers and accumulation by institutions such as BlackRock (mentioned multiple times in the news), Bitcoin target price looking up to $88,000, Tom Lee stating that market bottom has appeared.
   Negative factors: Fear and Greed Index shows "extreme fear," Ethereum Foundation selling ETH for cash, the U.S. government transferring small amounts of BTC to Coinbase (possibly interpreted as potential sell pressure), large short positions in centralized exchanges face significant liquidation pressure (possibly triggering fluctuations).
   The most important core factor is "institutional accumulation" compared to "market extreme fear," which is often characteristic of a mid-bull market. There is some divergence between technical and news: prices are making new highs, but sentiment is extremely fearful.

2. On-chain data:
   The Fear and Greed Index is only 15, which is "extreme fear"! However, BTC's dominance is 57.27%, and funds have not significantly flowed out of Bitcoin. The total market value is 25.5 trillion, still growing. This again confirms the classic scenario of "the market rising amid fear." The on-chain data (fear) and daily level technical trend (strong) are diverging, but often this divergence presents an opportunity.

Step 5: The path of least resistance (Trading strategy)
In summary, the overall trend upward remains unchanged but there is short-term adjustment pressure. The path of least resistance may be "waiting for a pullback to go long."
Key entry area: Near the 4-hour MA5 moving average of 72754.85 or near the previous low point support of 72670.0.
Stop-loss basis: If it falls below 72670.0, this effective low point may indicate deeper adjustments at the hour level, so the stop-loss could be set below 72500.
Target area: First look at the previous high of 73434.0, after breaking through look to the 74000-75000 area.

Step 6: How it will go today (Market prediction)

1. Current (within a few hours): The probability is high that it will continue to fluctuate within the range of 72670.0 to 73434.0, with a tendency toward fluctuation arrangement.

2. Today and recent key: The most important support today is at 72670.0, and the most important resistance is at 73434.0. It is necessary to closely monitor the price tests at these two positions.

3. Trading idea: The most suitable thought at present is "buy low on pullbacks." Because the larger period bullish pattern is intact, a pullback to key support levels on smaller periods provides a better entry opportunity. Do not chase high at around 73434.0.

4. Summary: The core contradiction in the current market is the pull between "long-term bullish pattern" and "short-term overbought and market fear sentiment."

5. Trading aphorism: The news is full of "whales accumulating" and "fear index," which confirms that old saying: "The market is always born in despair, rises in hesitation, and ends in frenzy." Now, the market is in the "hesitation" stage.

[Qinglan's personal view]
Oh, looking at the data, I find it quite interesting. The price is clearly near a new high, but everyone is terrified, which is often not the peak. Institutions are secretly buying, and retail investors are trembling, the script is very familiar, isn’t it? My insight is to respect the daily bullish trend, but also to patiently wait for the hourly chart to give a good entry point, do not get dizzy from short-term ups and downs. Market sentiment as a contrarian indicator might prove effective again this time! Of course, this is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.

This TPV system was developed through years of monitoring, reviewing, and practical experience. I cannot say it is 100% accurate, but it can at least help us gain more confidence at key positions. If you want to receive the latest entry opportunities captured by the TPV system first, you are welcome to visit the Qinglan Crypto Class official website www.qinglan.org

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