The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to provide the most valuable information for fellow currency enthusiasts. Welcome to all coin friends for your attention and likes, and reject any market smokescreens!

After discussing contracts for three consecutive days, the overall quality was not high, leading many spot users to have different views on future trends; Lao Cui did not deviate from his original intention and did not explain spot trading, as he still maintains the original view that the oscillating upward trend remains unchanged. Early this morning, Lao Cui also went through a deep review and, based on the market trends, arrived at a personal conclusion, which fits the weekend time frame and can be shared with everyone. Yesterday's CPI data was released, which Lao Cui did not explain, and many friends had certain doubts about why inflation rose by 0.9%, leaning more towards interest rate hikes, while Bitcoin not only did not decrease but rather increased? The growth of the last two days is almost linked to the recent CPI data; the core CPI increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, which is significantly below the expected 0.3%. CPI in English: Consumer Price Index, simply put, is an indicator used to measure whether the prices of goods that we common people buy have increased.

What does this indicate? Under the premise of military conflict, driving up oil prices, the inflation shock received in the U.S. has not fully reflected back into the domestic market; this also means that short-term interest rate hikes are unlikely, but rather benefits for rate cuts. A simultaneous influence is the ceasefire negotiations, which Lao Cui also mentioned in yesterday's article; compensation is definitely impossible. But the prerequisite conditions are proposed, along with a negotiation process where the words occupy the upper hand, not everything will necessarily be satisfied. From the perspective of international positions and strengths, Iran itself does not want to continue down this path, having already fallen to the point of needing to use Bitcoin to pay for shipping fees, and the economy will certainly not be any better. Therefore, in the short term, all you need to do is keep an eye on short-term negotiation news, and regarding the long term, Lao Cui has already drawn conclusions at the end of March, which is that the process will stop the war in 2-3 weeks.

Lao Cui's intention is very clear; even if this negotiation fails, the next wave of impact will be a final blow, and April will bring an end to the war to facilitate the U.S.-China meeting in May. Everyone should not just focus on short-term news; spot users need to understand the significance behind what is happening. Through this military conflict, we can see from the data perspective that the cryptocurrency market is more robust than many stable investment markets. Lao Cui has even speculated whether Bitcoin would have entered bullish territory sooner had it not been for this conflict? Simply put, after the outbreak of military conflict, the overall fund volume in the cryptocurrency circle is in a state of inflow. This is very important, indirectly indicating that Bitcoin still has the property of being a safe haven. Everyone can express their thoughts and consider why Iran's transit fees need to be settled in Bitcoin rather than other currencies? Isn't this a more specific application of Bitcoin? One could even think about why the energy trading settlement between Germany and Russia after the Russia-Ukraine conflict also uses Bitcoin?

This is the embodiment of Bitcoin's value; future geopolitical conflicts and military conflicts will only intensify the application scenarios for digital currencies. If everyone feels that future conflict risks are intensifying, shouldn’t Bitcoin be on the rise? From Lao Cui’s perspective, future conflicts and divisions will be more frequent; the war will not stop just because the conflict between Iran and the U.S. ceases. Under the foundation of economic downturn, contradictions will only grow larger, and Europe will definitely not allow its decline. Rising stars will also challenge the rule makers. Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF has officially launched, and the current environment is one of fulfilling previous commitments. Lao Cui just glanced at the on-chain data, and at this time, significant transfer fluctuations are occurring; Beichade has just withdrawn 3,741 BTC (worth $272.49 million) and 41,075 ETH (worth $92 million) from Coinbase in the past half hour. Even the silent Americans have withdrawn 2.44 BTC to Coinbase Prime. These two funds have a somewhat linked meaning; everyone should pay attention to the sudden reversal of the market today.

Taking a look at MicroStrategy's movements, the most recent purchase was on April 6, purchasing 4,871 BTC at an average price of around 67,000. Looking back at the entire process, since February 23, MicroStrategy's purchase prices have ranged from 67,000 to 70,000 to 74,000, resulting in six transactions. Currently, MicroStrategy’s holding cost is at 75,644, with a total holding of 766,972 BTC. Overall, the listed company's net inflow has been showing a state of net inflow this year, with a total weekly net inflow of 172 million U.S. dollars, which is also the average weekly inflow since the beginning of this year. MicroStrategy's purchase price holds little significant reference because it is priced based on the company's stock price. As long as someone buys, they will use investors' funds for regular investments. But don’t think that they don’t consider costs; such companies calculate cost value better than we do. With Lao Cui explaining up to this point, the intention is very simple: aside from the military effects, the current market news regarding the cryptocurrency circle is largely positive, which means that the reversal of the bull market is not far (not short-term, don’t misunderstand).

In summary, financial markets often lead the way. Oil prices are falling, gold is also down, and only government bond yields are rising, while the cryptocurrency market is also rising. This series of clues seems to hint that cryptocurrencies are about to start a new phase in the market. There are also some small interludes; just when Iran decided to allow Bitcoin settlements, Hong Kong quickly issued stablecoin licenses through HSBC and Standard Chartered, and will soon launch stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar. Lao Cui doesn't want to dwell too much on conspiracy theories; he can only say that when these times are connected, the subsequent impact is still sufficient. Along with the issuance of nearly 10 billion USDC on the SOL chain, the amount of circulating stablecoins in the market is enough to support the launch of a wave of market activity. Those with thoughts on spot trading must provide timely feedback; the subsequent market will not give everyone too many opportunities to enter, so remember that April is likely the last timing.

Lao Cui summarizes: The above text revolves entirely around spot trading. From the early morning review, it is very clear that since the new low of 60,000 was set, until today, the bottom space is extremely clear. Many friends define the support level for the trend at the 65,000 mark; Lao Cui does not think so; from an intuitive view, the 63,000 mark is very difficult to break. This is also the support that has emerged after recent upward corrections. So for everyone’s arrangements, in the short term, as long as the stop-loss position is below 63,000, anyone can enter at any time. However, regarding profit levels, it must not be exaggerated. The more exaggerated, the more risk accumulates. At the end of the article, this market can only be defined as a short-term rebound; remember it is not the arrival of a bull market, and the profit should aim to remain below 1,000 points. Bitcoin's new high this month will be positioned above 76,000, and once achieved, it will also confirm the trend level of oscillating upward. Over the weekend, everyone should manage risks, and I wish you all happiness!

Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks about Currency. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's words: Investment is like playing chess; a master can see five moves, seven moves, or even ten moves ahead, while a beginner can only see two or three moves. The master considers the big picture and strategies for the grand situation, not focusing on one piece or place, aiming for the final win. The beginner, on the other hand, fights for every inch of ground, frequently switching between long and short positions, only contesting for short-term gains, and as a result, often gets trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this bears your own consequences!

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