Translated by: Baihua Blockchain

As the US President announced aceasefire agreement with Iran, crude oil prices fell below $100 per barrel. Meanwhile, Bitcoin showed strong performance in New York trading on Tuesday,breaking through $72,700. Shortly after, the attractiveness of the cryptocurrency weakened, but this token remained above $71,000.

Boosted by the ceasefire agreement with Iran, the price of Bitcoin rose 7% on Tuesday, touching $72,700. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin recovered all declines from the past 20 days, rebounding 7.4% from the Tuesday low of $67,274. This marked the first time since March 18 that the crypto token returned above $72,000.

The overall funding in the cryptocurrency market is showing a positive turnaround,with Bitcoin reclaiming the critical threshold of $71,000 and Ethereum progressing towards $2,250. This round of increase mainly stems from investors turning to high-risk assets. With crude oil prices significantly retreating, investor confidence is strengthening,resulting in over $13 billion re-entering the cryptocurrency market. Notably, Zcash significantly surged by 25% among other altcoins.

Bitcoin at Three-Week High Still Needs Stronger Momentum

Despite the recent surge, Bitcoin and Ethereum have not yet established a solid foothold at current levels, thusa temporary pullback remains possible. Driven by macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin has broken above $71,000 but currently facessignificant resistance between $70,500 and $71,700. After breaking the short-term triangular pattern, the price is testing this historic resistance level once again.

Market experts believe that the price of Bitcoinmust break through the range of $72,000 to $76,000 to confirm trend demand. Despite QCP data showing suppressed volatility, there remains strong demand for downstream protection,and there is still a strong demand for hedging. There is significant bullish options activity between $75,000 and $85,000, and support is found between $60,000 and $65,000,with $74,500 (mistakenly written as 745,000 in the original) seen as the key level that must be broken.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates that the reserves of trading platforms are still high, suggesting that the market currently holdsa more stable perspective. Traders and analysts point out that Bitcoin enthusiasts still face significant challenges. Bitcoin's price has experienced large fluctuations recently, andit is very likely to fall from a bearish flag pattern. Experts warn that a strong break in the $72,000 to $76,000 range could lead to a stair-step increase in prices, which could ultimatelyfall below $60,000.

While long-term indicators show some optimism, the short-term outlook remains cautious. Many professionals advise against being overly optimistic and point out thatkey technical support levels are currently being tested. Recent analysis shows that Bitcoin has slipped below key technical support levels, including the50-week moving average, which typically signals a bearish trend. The mainstream view among these traders is that Bitcoinmust significantly break above the $76,000 levelto improve the existing bearish trend.

Is it a Risk Asset or a Safe Haven?

The recent surge of Bitcoin amid geopolitical tensions in early 2026 has sparked intense discussions about its role asa safe asset or a speculative investment. While Bitcoin has been recognized for countering government turmoil and currency devaluation, it still displayscharacteristics of a high-risk asset during extreme short-term market volatility.

During recent crises, Bitcoin often fell alongside the stock market, indicating that some investors view it as a high-risk asset. However, Bitcoin also exhibits a unique behavioral sentiment pattern: it drops like aunique behavioral sentiment during escalated national tensions, butfaster than traditional markets, sometimes even leading other assets. With the introduction of spot ETFs,the correlation of Bitcoin with traditional tech stocks has increased, tightening the immediacy for investors but potentially leading to reduced liquidity during sell-offs.

During periods of market turmoil,Bitcoin's performance often resembles that of wildly fluctuating high-risk tech stocks. When liquidity decreases, investors typically sell both Bitcoin and stocks simultaneously to obtain cash. Compared to traditional safe-haven assets,gold has fallen 47% from its peak between 2026 and October 2025, a decline far exceeding that resulting from leverage-driven mass applications that led to panic selling, further pushing prices below potential fundamental support levels.

Is the “Digital Gold” Narrative Valid?

Bitcoin is also seen as analternative asset to counteract the devaluation of fiat currencies and the monetary expansion of central banks. Due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin recorded significant growth in early 2026 as more people sought to achieve portfolio confidence through non-government assets, resulting ina substantial increase in ETF inflows. Due to its centralized features and resistance to censorship, some view it as a safe haven during specific long-term economic downturns.

The market is currently divided between these two viewpoints. As we enter 2026,Bitcoin is emerging as a dynamic indicator of geopolitical risks and a leading tool for macroeconomic analysis. The prevailing view is that gold provides temporary relief during active crises, whileBitcoin is seen as a long-term safeguard against potential monetary measures (such as interest rate cuts or fiscal stimulus).

How are Other Major Cryptocurrencies Performing?

As Bitcoin seeks a breakthrough, Ethereum is also quietly enteringthe resistance zone of $2,200 to $2,250. TradingView shows that Ethereum rebounded from a deadly bottom of $1,950 to $2,000, forming a pattern of “higher lows” within an ascending channel. This indicates that it is adoptinga vertical extension strategy, bypassing the breakthrough.

Whenever the upper edge of the support channel is reached, Ethereum's upward momentum encounters resistance. TradingView analysis shows that momentum indicators point toan influx of capital (which has surged above 0.64), with the relative strength index (RSI) close to 60, currently showing strong momentum and not yet entering the overbought zone. Nevertheless, the price is still at the bottom angle of a larger downward trend line, so from a macro perspective, the outlook is not significantly better than before.

With Bitcoin returning to $71,000 and Ethereum moving towards $2,250,the cryptocurrency market has entered a phase of increased risk appetite. Currently, momentum is strong, liquidity has significantly improved, and cryptocurrencies are responding positively; everything points to asuccessful short-term growth period. However, this upward movement is still based on sentiment, rather than structural confirmation.

The most important core point is:while momentum has returned, further confirmation is still needed. Bitcoin must maintain above the range of $71,000 to $72,000 to keep the upward trend, while Ethereum must convert $2,300 into a support level. If current levels can be maintained,Bitcoin targets $75,000, and Ethereum approaches the zone of $2,500 to $2,600. However, if sustained breakthroughs fail, current momentum may turn into a temporary relief rebound, with expectations thatBitcoin may retrace to $66,000 and Ethereum to $2,000.

This possibility exists, but has yet to be confirmed. The next few trading sessions will reveal whether this isthe start of a long-term upward trend or another blind rush driven by macroeconomic factors.

Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/04/6284.html

Source: https://www.blockhead.co/2026/04/09/bitcoin-playing-both-sides-risk-asset-victim-safe-bet/