What to know : Prediction markets in the United States are growing, with weekly volume up 4% and federally regulated exchange Kalshi now commanding about 89% of the market, a Bank of America report finds. A widening regulatory divide is emerging as Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight while crypto-native rival Polymarket faces tighter U.S. restrictions despite strong global activity. Ongoing legal battles between the CFTC and states over whether event contracts are financial instruments or gambling could determine whether the industry scales under a single federal framework or fragments into a state-by-state regime.
Prediction markets are seeing steady growth in the U.S., but a wave of legal disputes and shifting competition is beginning to reshape the sector, a new report from Bank of America said.
Total weekly volume rose 4% week-over-week, according to the report, with Kalshi — a federally regulated exchange — leading gains at 6%. Crypto.com posted a smaller increase, while Polymarket, a crypto-native platform that had surged in prior weeks, saw overall volumes fall 16%.
Kalshi now controls roughly 89% of measured U.S. prediction market volume, far ahead of Polymarket at 7% and Crypto.com at 4%, according to BofA estimates. The shift points to a market consolidating around platforms with clearer regulatory standing.
That divide reflects a deeper tension. At the center is whether prediction markets should be treated as financial instruments or as gambling. Kalshi operates under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), framing its contracts — including those tied to political or sports outcomes — as derivatives.
Polymarket runs on blockchain rails and has historically operated outside U.S. regulatory boundaries. It allows users to trade on event outcomes using crypto, often attracting global liquidity but facing restrictions domestically.
The gap is becoming more visible as regulators step in. Nevada and Massachusetts have both secured preliminary injunctions against Kalshi at the state level, while New Jersey lost an appeal that limits its ability to enforce gambling laws against the firm.
At the same time, the CFTC has taken an aggressive stance in support of prediction markets.
The agency has sued multiple states, arguing that federal law preempts state-level gambling rules. CFTC leadership has also drawn a distinction between sports betting, which it views as entertainment, and event contracts, which it classifies as financial tools for hedging risk.
The outcome of that fight could define the industry. A federal win would allow platforms like Kalshi to scale nationally under a single framework. A loss could push the market into a state-by-state model similar to online sports betting, slowing growth.
Crypto firms are still trying to carve out a role. Polymarket remains one of the largest global platforms and has drawn attention during major events like elections, where trading volumes can spike sharply. Meanwhile, companies like Crypto.com and Coinbase (COIN) are experimenting with prediction market-style products, signaling broader interest from centralized exchanges. The largest crypto exchange in the world, Binance, announced Thursday that it added a prediction markets feature to Binance Wallet.
Even traditional gaming firms are adjusting. FanDuel recently shut down parts of its fantasy sports offerings, a move Bank of America links in part to the rise of prediction markets. The shift suggests users may be moving toward products that resemble trading more than betting.
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