Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

US Stocks: The Most Violent Day Since Last Year’s "Liberation Day"

On Wednesday, Wall Street completed a collective outburst against the 40 days of war panic with a violent rally.

The Dow Jones soared 1,325 points (+2.85%) to 47,909.92 points, marking the largest single-day gain since April 9, 2025, coincidentally the day Trump also hit the brakes on the edge of a cliff and announced a pause on "reciprocal tariffs." A year later, the same script, the same president, almost the same date, and the market once again responded to the "step back" with a violent rebound.

The S&P 500 surged 2.51% to 6,782.83 points, breaking through the 200-day moving average (6,655 points) for the first time since mid-March. The Nasdaq rose 2.80% to 22,635 points. The Russell 2000 increased 2.97% to 2,620.46 points, the largest increase among all major benchmarks.

Out of the 11 S&P sectors, 8 rose by over 2%, with the industrial sector leading the way at 3.5%. Airline stocks collectively took off: United Airlines skyrocketed 9.5%, Delta rose 3.8% (despite second-quarter profit guidance falling short of expectations), American Airlines jumped 11%, and Southwest Airlines surged 13%. Carnival Cruise Line increased by 10%. The dramatic drop in oil prices is the most direct benefit for these "oil price sensitive" companies. Homebuilders rose 4.9%, and leisure and travel stocks rose 5.2%.

Tech giants also joined in the celebration. Meta rose 6.5%, Amazon climbed 3.4%, and Alphabet increased by 3.6%. The semiconductor sector was particularly aggressive: Micron jumped 7.7%, Applied Materials and Lam Research each rose over 5%, and the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ETF surged 18% in a single day. Crypto-related stocks Strategy rose over 6%, and Circle also jumped 6%.

The only loser across the board was the energy sector, which fell 3.7%. ExxonMobil dropped 5.7%, ConocoPhillips fell 6%, Chevron declined 5%, and Valero decreased by 5%. The oil price crash of 16% was a nightmare for energy stocks and a carnival for all other sectors.

The VIX plummeted to around 20, returning to historical average levels. The dollar index recorded its third-largest single-day drop of the year, and the Bloomberg dollar spot index erased all gains of 2026. Safe-haven funds are retreating dramatically.

Emerging markets became the biggest beneficiaries of fund flows. South Korean ETFs soared over 10% in one day, Chile rose 7%, and Taiwan, Turkey, the UAE, Mexico, Japan, and India all increased by over 5%.

The S&P 500 saw 13 component stocks reaching all-time highs, including Dell, Jabil, Keysight, and Western Digital. Total market trading volume was 20.64 billion shares, above the 20-day average of 19.42 billion shares. This is not a thin rebound; real money is flooding in.

However, amidst Wall Street's celebration, two signals deserve calm scrutiny. First, the minutes from the Fed's March meeting showed that policymakers raised the inflation outlook for 2026 due to oil price shocks from the war, and they are "increasingly open" to hiking rates. While the market celebrated the ceasefire, the Fed is preparing to address the aftereffects of inflation. Second, a key oil pipeline from Saudi Arabia (an alternative oil transportation route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz) was attacked by drones, with the extent of the damage unknown. Following the ceasefire, there were still violent incidents in Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, lowered the probability of a US recession from 35% to 20%, but warned: "A two-week pause is not a solution. Financial markets will remain highly sensitive to any signals of a breakdown in negotiations."

Oil Prices: Plummeting 16% in One Day, the Worst Day Since April 2020

Oil prices faced the most severe single-day sell-off since April 2020 on Wednesday.

WTI collapsed over 16% to $94.41 per barrel. Brent fell about 13% to $94.75 per barrel. From Tuesday's intraday peak of $115.80, WTI evaporated over $21 in less than 24 hours.

From Trump’s statement on Tuesday morning that "a whole civilization will die" to the Wednesday close, oil prices traced a perfect inverted V-shape: first soaring to 116, then crashing to 94. A social media post can move the oil market by $21 within 24 hours—such is the pricing reality of 2026.

However, the gap between "headline trading" and "real trading" was cruelly verified within hours after the close.

Schwab pointed out in its pre-market report: "The oil crash is headline-driven, not actual barrel-driven. Shipping remains thin. If actual oil flows stall, pricing power could rebound instantly."

This statement quickly became prophetic.

Less than 24 hours after the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again.

According to Bloomberg, only 3 ships passed through the strait throughout the day on Wednesday, some of which were linked to Iran. In normal times, 100 to 135 commercial vessels pass through this waterway daily. More than 800 cargo ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard continues to warn Gulf vessels via radio: passage through the strait must obtain Iranian permission.

After the ceasefire, Iran briefly allowed two oil tankers to pass. But then Israel launched a massive strike on Lebanon (causing at least 112 deaths), and the Iranian state news agency Fars (linked to the Revolutionary Guard) immediately announced that due to Israel's violation of the ceasefire, the passage of tankers would be "completely halted." The semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim transmitted a stronger signal: if Israel continues to strike Hezbollah, Iran will withdraw from the ceasefire agreement.

White House spokesperson Levitt's response was unusually strong: "This is completely unacceptable. The President's expectation and demand is that the strait must be reopened immediately, swiftly, and safely, without any restrictions, including tolls."

Defense Secretary Hegsey insisted at the press conference that "the strait is open." When asked the same question, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said: "I believe so, based on the results of diplomatic negotiations." But a shipowner told CNBC: "We have no information about how to pass through the strait during the ceasefire. We have not contacted Iranian authorities. The safety of our crew is the most important thing."

Deeper disputes surfaced: the Iranian Tasnim News Agency claimed that the United States has, in principle, agreed to ten conditions, including "Iran continuing to control the Strait of Hormuz," "accepting uranium enrichment," "lifting all sanctions," and "paying reparations." The White House has never confirmed these terms. The descriptions of the ceasefire content by both sides are completely at odds—while Iran claims the US "was forced to accept surrender conditions," the US states "Iran begged for this ceasefire."

Iran's parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf bluntly stated early Thursday: the ceasefire has already had "three clauses violated," and negotiations with the US are "unreasonable." Bloomberg reported that Asian stock markets fell at Thursday's opening, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, and oil prices rebounded.

The three premises for the $94 oil price—continuity of the ceasefire, reopening of the strait, and restoration of production capacity—has already been broken within 24 hours. If the Islamabad talks on Saturday do not reach a clear framework for strait passage, a rebound in oil prices above $100 is just a matter of time.

Gold: The Ceasefire is Not Bearish, but a Shift to Bullish in Another Form

Gold prices surged about 2.5-2.8% to around $4,800-4,820 per ounce on the day of the ceasefire, and silver skyrocketed 7%.

This movement initially seems counterintuitive—war has ceased, so safe-haven demand should cool; why does gold instead rise?

The answer lies in the dollar. The ceasefire news triggered a significant daily drop in the dollar index (the third largest drop of the year), erasing all annual gains in the Bloomberg dollar index. The weakening dollar directly boosted gold and silver prices denominated in dollars. Meanwhile, the sharp drop in oil prices leads to reduced inflation expectations, allowing the market to reassess the likelihood of interest rate cuts—this logical chain similarly benefits gold.

In simple terms, the ceasefire switched the driving factors for gold from "geopolitical safe-haven" to "interest rate cut expectations + dollar weakness." The two sets of logic differ, but their direction is consistent.

Freeport-McMoRan rose 6%, and Newmont increased nearly 6%. The response from mining stocks proves that this round of rising gold prices is not merely speculative, but resonates with the physical and stock markets.

Cryptocurrency: BTC Stays Above 71,000; Is the Fear Cycle Over?

Bitcoin maintained above $71,000 after the ceasefire, touching about $72,700 during the day— a three-week high. Ethereum remained above $2,200, rebounding over 7% from Tuesday's lows.

Bloomberg's description is very precise: "The return of risk appetite drove the S&P 500 up 2.5%, while crude oil dipped below $95, alleviating concerns about the energy crisis and reigniting bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026. Bitcoin surpassed $71,000."

The underlying logic of this cryptocurrency rebound has undergone a qualitative change. Over the past 48 days, Bitcoin was being tightly suppressed by the chain of "rising oil prices → higher inflation → interest rate hike expectations → liquidity tightening." The ceasefire interrupted the first link in this chain—oil prices crashed—so the entire chain began to loosen. The market is no longer pricing "endless war + structural inflation," but rather pricing "ceasefire → oil prices retreat → controllable inflation → interest rate cuts back on the table."

Strategy increased by over 6%, and Circle rose over 6%. The increase in crypto-related stocks even exceeded that of BTC itself, indicating that traditional funds are increasing their crypto exposure through stock channels.

But it's important to pour a bucket of cold water: the Fed's March meeting minutes indicate an increasingly open attitude towards interest rate hikes, rather than cuts. Even if oil prices fall, inflation's "secondary effects" (wage increases, sticky service prices) may still keep the Fed on hold. Bitcoin's stabilization above $71,000 requires not only a ceasefire but also the actual transformation of that ceasefire into improved inflation data; this will take at least one to two months of verification.

Today’s Summary: Carnival 24 Hours, the Strait Closed Again

On April 9, the first full trading day after the ceasefire, global markets provided the clearest answer since 40 days of war—then reality delivered its verdict after the close:

US Stocks: The Dow surged 1,325 points (+2.85%), marking the largest increase since last year's "Liberation Day." The S&P 500 stood above the 200-day moving average. However, Asian early morning futures have already retreated.

Oil Prices: WTI plummeted 16% to $94.41, the largest single-day drop since April 2020. But the strait closed again less than 24 hours after the ceasefire; 800+ ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Gold: Gold prices rose 2.5% to about $4,800. The dollar crash shifted gold from "safe-haven trading" to "interest rate trading." Silver surged 7%.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin stayed above $71,000. The ceasefire broke the suppressive chain of "oil prices → inflation → tightening," as the market began to price in a return to rate cuts.

A noteworthy number: The Dow shifted from a drop of over 1% to a gain of 2.85% within 48 hours, with a fluctuation of nearly 4 percentage points. This is not a normal market.

Wall Street celebrated the ceasefire with a Dow gain of 1,325 points. But on the same day, Israel's bombing of Beirut resulted in 112 deaths, Iran announced the strait was closed again, the Revolutionary Guard continued to warn passing vessels via radio, and Iran's parliamentary speaker stated that three clauses of the ceasefire had been violated, with both sides’ descriptions of the agreement being completely at odds.

The Islamabad negotiations on Saturday will be led by Vance, Whitcomb, and Kushner attending the US delegation. The core issues that must be addressed in the negotiations are already clear: Who controls the strait, whether Israel's attack on Lebanon constitutes a violation of the ceasefire, and what to do about Iran's uranium enrichment. Each of these is a potential minefield capable of causing the talks to collapse.

The market cast an optimistic vote today, but the 800 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf remind us: the ink on the ceasefire isn’t even dry, and reality has begun to rewrite the script.