• Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating on FIGR with a $67 price target, implying more than a 100% upside from ~$31 to $32 range.
• Figure Technology Solutions reported Q1 2026 originations of $2.9 billion, more than double year-over-year, with monthly volumes crossing $1 billion in March 2026.
• Figure Connect is projected to handle 56% of total loan volumes in 2026, as FIGR holds ~75% market share in the $17 billion tokenized private credit market.

Analysts at Bernstein issued the note last month, trimming the target from $72 while keeping the bullish rating intact. The firm described the roughly 60% pullback in crypto-linked equities, including FIGR, as a rare buying opportunity driven by temporary geopolitical and sentiment pressures rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

On Monday, Bernstein‘s outlook was more positive as analysts detailed that Figure possibly has more than 100% upside. Figure Technology Solutions, formerly Figure Technologies, was founded in 2018 by Mike Cagney, co-founder of SoFi, and June Ou. The Reno, Nevada-based company uses its proprietary Provenance blockchain to originate loans, tokenize credit assets, and operate Figure Connect, a marketplace linking loan originators with institutional capital.

The company went public on the Nasdaq in September 2025. Since then, Bernstein and many other analysts have published a series of increasingly detailed notes on the stock. In October 2025, it initiated coverage with a $54 price target. By January 2026, it raised the target to $72 and named FIGR its top pick for the year.

Figure shares on April 7, 2026 before the market open. Image source via tradingview.com.

Origination volumes have climbed steadily. Bernstein noted that monthly loan volumes crossed $1 billion for the first time in March 2026, reaching $1.2 billion, up 33% month-over-month. Q1 2026 originations totaled $2.9 billion, more than double the same period a year earlier, putting the company on a roughly $12 billion annualized run rate.

Bernstein projects full-year 2026 loan volume at $12.8 billion, a 53% increase year-over-year. Home equity lines of credit are expected to account for about $11.1 billion of that total, with newer categories including auto loans, small business loans, and residential transition loans contributing approximately $1.7 billion.

Figure Connect, the company’s tokenized marketplace, is central to that growth projection. Bernstein expects the platform to handle 56% of total volumes in 2026, up from 46% in 2025. The platform processed roughly 54% of volumes in Q4 2025. Figure holds approximately 75% market share in the $17 billion tokenized private credit market.

Revenue grew 48% over the trailing 12 months as of the March note. Bernstein projects a 48% EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2027, applying a 25x EV/2027 EBITDA valuation multiple to arrive at the $67 target.

Q4 2025 results, reported in February, showed profit growth of 156% and revenue near $160 million. On Monday, Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating and gave Figure a $67 target. FIGR shares are up 6.9% over the past month and the stock shed 5% over the last five trading sessions.

Other analysts are more cautious. Mizuho cut its price target from $55 to $45 on March 26, while maintaining an outperform rating. Bank of America downgraded the stock to underperform in February with a $42 target. Needham lowered its target from $71 to $55 but kept a buy rating. Piper Sandler raised its target to $75 with an overweight rating in January.

Among 11 analysts tracked by Marketbeat, two rate the stock a strong buy, five rate it a buy, one holds, and three have issued sell ratings. The average price target stands at $53.75. That’s presently lower than the Bernstein analyst’s current $67 target.

Marketbeat stats show institutional investors have taken small new positions. Wells Fargo lifted its stake by 3.5% in Q4 2025 to 18,429 shares. Global Retirement Partners, Strs Ohio, MetLife Investment Management, and Flagship Harbor Advisors each established new positions during the same quarter.

FIGR shares have traded in the $31 to $34 range in early April 2026, down roughly 24% year-to-date and approximately 60% from their 52-week high.

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