What to know : U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $471 million in net inflows on April 6, their strongest daily intake in more than a month, even as bitcoin hovered around $68,780. Robust ETF demand is helping to offset weak spot buying and selling by large holders, effectively anchoring bitcoin’s price below the $70,000 level. New research suggests bitcoin has shifted from lagging to leading global monetary policy, with ETF-driven institutional flows now front-running expected central bank moves rather than reacting to them.
Bitcoin traded around $68,780 on Tuesday as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest daily inflow in more than a month.
Funds added a combined $471 million on April 6, according to SoSoValue data, marking the largest inflow since Feb. 25 and the sixth-biggest daily total this year. The figure remains below January’s peak flow regime, when multiple trading days topped $700 million.
These high inflows come as bitcoin continues to stall below $70,000, with weak spot demand and distribution by large holders capping upside. ETFs have increasingly offset that pressure, acting as a primary source of marginal buying.
Macro signals offer limited direction. Markets are pricing a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its April meeting, according to Polymarket data, with minimal expectations for near-term cuts or hikes.
Bitcoin’s relationship with global monetary policy may be shifting, with ETFs changing not just the scale of demand but its timing.
A recent Binance Research report finds bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned sharply negative since 2024, the same year U.S. spot ETFs were approved. Before then, bitcoin tended to follow easing cycles with a lag. That relationship has now flipped, with the inverse effect nearly three times stronger.
The shift reflects who sets the marginal price. Retail once reacted to macro after the fact. ETF-driven institutional flows are more forward-looking, positioning ahead of expected policy moves.
“BTC may have evolved from a macro 'lagging receiver' to a 'leading pricer,'” Binance Research wrote.
ETF inflows continue to absorb supply and anchor prices, which could explain the continued daily inflow.
If what Binance Research proposes holds, bitcoin may keep trading as a forward-looking asset, pricing in central bank pivots before traditional markets rather than reacting to them after the fact.
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