Written by: Jiayi

If I gather the most accurate predictors of a financial product—like gold—throughout history, including the most authoritative institutions and the most famous analysts, comparing their predictions with actual results to find out "who is the most accurate"... and then see how these "most accurate people" view the future now?

Would I then grasp the wealth code of this financial asset?

Carrying this thought, I actually went ahead and did it. I took gold as a sample and pulled up over a decade of predictive records.

For this research, we highlighted three categories of people: the top investment banks and industry institutions on Wall Street, the big names who shout the loudest in the gold sector, and the "confirmed performers" who accurately predicted key reversals.

We looked at the data one by one.

The predictive data we found, all laid out

Wall Street Professional Institutions:

• LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) invites dozens of top analysts each year to make annual gold predictions. For 2025, the average prediction from 28 analysts is $2,735/ ounce. The most optimistic analyst that year—Keisuke (Bill) Okui from Sumitomo Corporation—gave a prediction of $2,925, winning that year's "most accurate prediction award" for being "closest to actual."

What was the actual average gold price in 2025? $3,431.

This means that the most bullish analyst in the entire market, who ultimately won an award, still predicted a value that was 15% lower than the actual price. Moreover, the market consensus underestimated it by a full 20%.

• Goldman Sachs has two notable records in gold prediction history. In April 2013, Goldman Sachs released a report clearly recommending to short gold, with a target of $1,450. Gold then plummeted by 26%, solidifying Goldman Sachs' reputation.

However, recently, Goldman Sachs made a major miscalculation. In October 2024, Goldman Sachs predicted 2025 gold prices would be $2,700. What happened? Gold prices soared, breaking through $5,600 in early 2026—a difference of double.

• JPMorgan set a benchmark for gold prices at $5,055 by the end of 2025. The result? Gold prices surpassed this level ahead of schedule.

Gold Sector Big Names:

• Peter Schiff, the most famous "eternal bull" in the gold circle, has been calling for "$5,000 gold" for over a decade. From 2013 to 2018, when gold prices stagnated for five or six years, he faced daily criticism and was mocked as a "stopped clock." However, gold did indeed surpass $5,000 in early 2026. His latest statement (March 23): called the recent drop "illogical," predicting gold would soars to $11,400 within three years.
• Jim Rickards, another long-time "bull" insisting on "$10,000 gold." The core logic is that the de-dollarization among BRICS nations will force a reset of the global monetary system. The direction is correct, but the timeline has been repeatedly postponed, and the target price has not yet been reached.
• Robert Kiyosaki (author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad"), mid-March prediction: after the impending "largest bubble burst in history," gold will reach $35,000.

Confirmed Performers who Accurately Predicted Reversals:

• Nouriel Roubini ("Dr. Doom"), renowned for predicting the 2008 financial crisis. He made two excellent calls on gold: in June 2013, when gold was around $1,400, he wrote that "the gold bubble is bursting," with a target of $1,000. By the end of 2015, gold hit a low of $1,050, perfectly validating his prediction. In January 2023, with gold hovering around $1,900, he turned bullish, predicting a 10% increase each year over five years, targeting $3,000. Gold prices later far exceeded this number.
• Ben McMillan (CIO of IDX Advisors) stood out in the recent market. At the beginning of 2024, with gold around $2,000, he predicted it would reach $5,000 within five years. At the time, the market thought it was "almost crazy." The result? Gold reached that level in just a year and a half.
• Ray Dalio (founder of Bridgewater) does not provide specific prices but qualitatively assesses from a macro cycle perspective. In January 2026, he called gold "the second major currency," suggesting an investment allocation of 5-15%.

After looking at the data, you might think—some people are pretty accurate?

Hold on. What I've shared are just their "most famous instances." When I pulled out their complete records to look at, the picture changed.

Wall Street Professional Institutions: Typical Lagging Predictions

What is a lagging prediction? It’s when a bull market has already begun, and they start adjusting their target prices; yet the adjustments never keep pace with the actual surge. When a bear market arrives, they begin to lower predictions but always too slowly.

The 28 analysts of LBMA provide the best example. They make predictions once a year, essentially performing minor extrapolations on "trends that have already occurred." By 2024, when gold prices had already risen to $2,700, their median prediction for 2025 was only $2,735—almost simply carrying over last year's closing price as their prediction. The result was an average price of $3,431 in 2025—20% off.

Goldman Sachs operates on the same model. Looking ahead to 2025, it only predicted $2,700, while gold prices later surged past $5,000. JPMorgan predicted a benchmark price of $5,055, which gold prices exceeded ahead of schedule.

What these institutions are actually doing can be more accurately described as **"trend confirmation"**—confirming that an already occurring event is continuing, but always making conservative judgments about the extent of change. If you wait for their signals to make decisions, you will always be a step behind.

Gold Sector Big Names: A Broken Clock Can Be Right Twice a Day

Peter Schiff has called for $5,000 gold for over a decade. Jim Rickards has consistently called for $10,000. Kiyosaki directly calls for $35,000.

Their strategy is essentially to call for rises every year; when prices rise, it’s "I said it long ago," and when they drop, it’s "it’s not time yet."

The more fatal issue is: these predictions lack time granularity. They don’t tell you when to enter or when to exit. If you had listened to Schiff's advice and invested everything in gold in 2011, you would have had to endure five to six years of stagnation and losses before waiting for today. Faith in this stuff lacks a blood-stopping function when you’re losing 40%.

Confirmed Performers: Have They Always Been Accurate?

This category of people can be the most misleading. Because they did indeed make astonishingly precise judgments at certain critical moments, the market has given them the halo of "prophet." But when I pulled out their complete records, the picture was not so perfect.

Roubini was correct when he turned bearish in 2013 and correct again when turning bullish in 2023. He captured two pivot points, which is indeed impressive.

But do you know what he missed in between? In 2009, when gold price had just broken $1,000, Roubini publicly stated, "It is impossible to rise another 20-30%." What happened? Gold prices increased to $1,900 in 2011, a nearly 90% increase. At the end of 2009, when gold reached $1,200, he again said, "It looks very much like a bubble," and "gold has no intrinsic value."

During the entire gold bull market from 2009 to 2012, Roubini repeatedly expressed bearish views and completely missed it. This part of history is rarely mentioned; everyone only remembers his brilliant bearish call in 2013 and his turnaround in 2023.

Ben McMillan predicted $5,000 within five years at the beginning of 2024, and it came true in a year and a half. His logic was based on structural changes in central bank gold purchases, which turned out to be correct. But the issue is: This is the only widely recorded prediction he has made in the field of gold. The sample size is just one. Does one successful prediction indicate systemic predictive capability?

Ray Dalio seems the most stable—he doesn’t predict prices, only gives allocation advice. But if you look at his macro predictive records: in 1981, he firmly believed that the U.S. was heading for a Great Depression, shouting everywhere in newspapers, on television, and in congressional hearings, resulting in massive errors, with Bridgewater nearly going bankrupt and having to borrow $4,000 from his father to pay family bills. In 2015, he said, "It’s going to repeat 1937," which did not happen. In 2018, he predicted "a recession within two years," which also did not occur. In October 2022, he called it a "perfect storm"—that month was actually the low point for U.S. stocks.

Almost every two to three years, he predicts a financial crisis, and the vast majority have not happened. Ironically, his statement, "You don’t need to predict prices, you just need to allocate 5-15%," became the most useful line among everyone.

The 2011 script is being replayed in 2026

There is a particularly interesting finding in the report.

Before gold peaked at $1,923 in 2011, market predictions crazily escalated: at the beginning of the year, everyone predicted $2,000, doubling mid-year, and approaching the top, Jim Sinclair called for $12,500, Rob Kirby called for $15,000. The most extreme predictions emerged just weeks before the actual peak.

Then in September, gold prices plummeted. What was the reaction of the predictors? First, they called it "a healthy correction," then a few months later reluctantly lowered their target prices by 20-30%, eventually postponing the timeline indefinitely.

In March 2026, gold price plummeted 25% from a historical high of $5,600 to around $4,200—its largest single-week drop since 1983. What do the vast majority of institutions and celebrities react with? They maintain their original high target prices, even believing the plunge is "the best buying opportunity."

History doesn't repeat itself exactly, but the script does look very similar.

So how do they view the future now?

Since we’ve pulled everything out, let’s also list their latest judgments for everyone’s reference:

Person / Institution Latest Prediction Core Logic Roubini Previous target of $3,000 achieved, bullish direction unchanged Inflation expectations return + Long-term structural increase McMillan $10,000 within five years Central bank gold purchase + U.S. debt crisis + BRICS de-dollarization Dalio No price given, recommends allocation of 5-15% Structural decline in fiat currency credit Jamie Dimon Possible to reach $10,000 within this year Economic worries + inflation + asset bubbles Peter Schiff $11,400 within three years Calls the recent drop "illogical" Kiyosaki $35,000 after "the largest bubble burst in history" JPMorgan $6,300 Believes the plunge is profit-taking Goldman Sachs $5,400 Bull market not yet over UBS $6,200 Maintains bullish stance

Did you see that? From $5,400 to $35,000, the highest and lowest differ by nearly 7 times. In the same market environment, using the same data source, the answers given by these world-leading minds can differ so greatly.

So, have we found the "wealth code"?

My conclusion after completing this entire review is: No, we did not find it.

Institutions are always chasing, big names are always shouting, and confirmed performers are not always accurate—they are correct only at certain specific moments, and those mistakes are never remembered. Overlaying the predictions of these three categories does not yield a more accurate answer; in fact, it creates greater confusion. Because they often contradict each other at the same point in time.

I originally thought that "finding the most accurate person and following them" was a path. After completing this research, I found that in the field of gold prediction, there is fundamentally no such thing as "the person who is always the most accurate." There are only "those who happened to be correct this time."

Final Thoughts

A single gold made me completely disillusioned with so-called financial experts.

Whether ALPHA can be captured by you, apart from models and data, may really depend on fate.

Therefore, in the end, instead of trying to crack the wealth code, I chose to learn from Dalio—do not predict specific prices, acknowledge uncertainty, and manage risk through allocation.

Gold was added to the portfolio last year, and it will continue to be added this year. Individuals can calculate investment time dimensions on a 10-year cycle.