Author: Fang Dao

Why can't Bitcoin surpass 70,000? It's not because no one is buying, but because someone is selling. And the sellers are not short-term funds, but the chips left over from the last cycle.

The market is repeatedly negotiating a proposition: Will April become the starting point for a new trend in Bitcoin?

However, from the current market structure, this is not a simple timing issue, but a process of reallocation of pricing power between old supply and new capital.

The sustained sideways movement of Bitcoin below 70,000 dollars does not mean a depletion of momentum, but rather that the market is completing a deeper switch—from a "halving cycle-driven" model to a "global liquidity-driven" transition.

70,000 dollars is not only a technical resistance but also a "psychological price anchor" of the old cycle.

The repeated fluctuations around the current price near 70,000 dollars essentially stem from the concentrated release of historical chips.

This price range corresponds to the high-position trading density area of the previous cycle, where a large amount of "unwound chips" and profits from long-term holders create sustained supply. Before this layer of historical memory is fully digested, any rapid upward movement is more likely to be absorbed by the existing supply system and is unlikely to form a continuation of the trend. This makes 70,000 dollars not just a technical resistance, but a concentrated manifestation of cyclical memory.

Institutional funds are changing the "rhythm" of price formation

The most significant change in this cycle is the reshaping of the holding structure.

The continued entry of spot ETFs and allocation-type funds has shifted Bitcoin's trading logic from "retail-driven short-term fluctuations" to "institution-driven long-term allocations."

This type of funding has lower trading frequency and longer holding periods, with their accumulation behaviors showing stability and continuity.

The result is:

In the decline phase, selling pressure is absorbed;

In the rise phase, momentum is smoothed.

The market no longer exhibits severe trend acceleration but enters a typical phase of chip redistribution.

Macro variables are taking over short-term pricing power

Although on-chain demand remains resilient, Bitcoin's short-term pricing logic has clearly shifted outward.

Currently, its correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices remains high, and its price behavior is closer to a high beta response to global liquidity.

Interest rate paths, inflation data, and geopolitical premiums are directly impacting its risk pricing through liquidity expectations. Under this framework, Bitcoin is gradually transforming from an "independent operating cryptocurrency" to a "risk asset embedded within the macro system."

The core of the "April turning point" lies not in the form, but in the ability to absorb capital

The market's optimistic expectations for the second quarter rely on the synchronized improvement of three variables:

• Marginal clarification of the regulatory environment

• Continuous inflow of institutional funds

• And loosening of global liquidity

What truly determines whether 70,000 dollars can transform from resistance to support is not the breakthrough of price patterns, but whether there is a sufficient scale of new funds capable of continuously absorbing the release of historical high supply.

AI and altcoin rotation reflect marginal changes in risk preference

During the sideways phase of Bitcoin, funds spreading towards AI-related assets and high-elasticity altcoins are typical signals of a marginal recovery in risk preference. Historically, the market usually follows a path from Bitcoin stability to dispersion towards high volatility assets. The current market has entered an early stage of this process, but its sustainability still highly depends on the macro liquidity environment.

The market is waiting for not time, but for the reconstruction of pricing logic

Whether April becomes a turning point depends on three variables:

• The digestion speed of historical supply

• The rhythm of institutional fund entry

• And the macro environment's tolerance for risk expansion

Before this, the market is more likely to maintain structural sideways movement rather than a trending breakout.

The real question now is not whether Bitcoin has found a bottom, but whether it has completed the transformation from "industry cycle asset" to "macro pricing asset." Once this transition is established, the cyclical model of the past decade will no longer have dominant explanatory power.

References

Benzinga, Glassnode, ETF flow data, macro correlation data

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