Author: Shen Chao TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Continued Rebound

Starting Q2, rising for the second day in a row.

The Dow Jones rose 224 points (+0.48%) to close at 46,565, the S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 6,575, the Nasdaq rose 1.16% to 21,840, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 0.64% to 2,512. The VIX fear index further retreated to 24.54, having contracted nearly 6 points from last week's peak.

The underlying logic of this rally is no longer just about "ceasefire news," but rather that Trump has given a specific timetable for the first time.

He told reporters at a White House press conference that U.S. troops would leave Iran "within two to three weeks," emphasizing that "regardless of whether there is an agreement." This is the first time Washington has untethered troop withdrawal from being a condition variable of "negotiated agreement" since the start of the 35-day war, turning it into an independent, time-driven commitment. What the market hears is that: the countdown for this war has begun, regardless of whether Tehran signs.

Meanwhile, Trump posted another message on Truth Social, claiming that "the Iranian president has requested a ceasefire," but immediately added a condition: the Strait of Hormuz must be "open, free, and unobstructed," otherwise the U.S. would not consider it. The existence of these two posts constitutes the core tension of market sentiment that day, embodying both expectations for an endgame and conditional anchors.

Sector Rotation: Beneficiaries and Victims Switch Places

The most unusual scene yesterday occurred in the energy sector. The S&P 500 energy sector plummeted over 4% in a single day, becoming the biggest loser—this is the first clear signal since the war began of "ceasefire expectations crushing energy stocks." The logical loop is: war ends → Strait of Hormuz reopens → oil supply rebounds → oil prices decline → energy company profits are pressured. WTI fell 2.4% yesterday to about $99 per barrel, officially breaking below the $100 mark; Brent also retreated to around $101.

Tech stocks took the lead. Intel was the most eye-catching stock yesterday, announcing a $14.2 billion buyback of a major stake in its Ireland Fab 34 factory—this was interpreted by the industry as a signal of a "CPU revival" and a return to financial discipline, with the stock price soaring accordingly. The Nasdaq maintained strong momentum for two consecutive days, and the tech ETF (XLK) continued to benefit from the "interest rate cut narrative recovery" logic tied to rising ceasefire expectations.

Two Surprising Posts: SpaceX and OpenAI

There were two significant non-war news items yesterday that deserve separate mention.

Bloomberg reported first that SpaceX has secretly submitted IPO documents to the U.S. SEC. This is one of the most anticipated IPOs in the crypto and tech market in years, with specific valuation and issuance times not yet disclosed. EchoStar holds about 3% of SpaceX's shares, and the stock surged after the news broke.

OpenAI announced it has completed a $122 billion financing, raising its valuation to $852 billion, surpassing previous projections. This round of financing is the largest single-instance fundraising by a tech company in history, and the funds will continue to be injected into AI infrastructure development. Meanwhile, Oracle announced layoffs of thousands, and the juxtaposition of these two news items shows that while AI funding continues to pour in, it has entered a phase where "the giants eat more, while other companies can’t get in."

Oil Prices and Gold

Oil Prices: Falling below $100, but don’t rush to celebrate

WTI closed yesterday at about $99 per barrel, and Brent at about $101. This is the first time since the outbreak of war that WTI has closed below the $100 mark. On the surface, this is a significant psychological breakthrough—the market is beginning to price in the expectation that "the war will end within weeks."

However, there is a detail worth noting: oil prices have never truly returned to pre-war levels. Before the war began (late February), WTI was around $57. Even if it falls back to $99, it is still about 74% higher than pre-war levels. Even if a ceasefire agreement is reached in the next two weeks, restoring oil market supply will take time: damaged Middle Eastern infrastructure needs repair, operators' confidence needs to be rebuilt, and the shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope are still in operation; canceling them will also take time. The head of the International Energy Agency, Birol, warned yesterday that even with a ceasefire in place, the complete normalization of energy markets "could take months."

Gold: Declining inflation expectations provide relief for gold, but structural rebound has only just begun

Gold surged 2.25% yesterday to about $4,783 per ounce, marking the strongest single-day increase this month.

The logic is clear: falling oil prices → cooling inflation expectations → reduced pressure for the Federal Reserve to raise rates → expectations of lower real interest rates → increased attractiveness of non-interest-bearing asset gold. This chain is completely symmetrical to the chain that suppressed gold throughout March, just with the direction reversed.

In terms of price, gold has rebounded over 15% from the mid-March correction low (about $4,100) but is still about 15% away from the historical high of $5,600 at the end of January. This space will be the core operational range for gold as expectations for the end of war gradually materialize.

Cryptocurrency

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin rose modestly in line with the broader market yesterday, fluctuating between $67,800 and $68,500, closely following market sentiment but with restrained movements.

Yesterday, the true protagonist in the crypto space was a warning related unexpectedly to the war narrative: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran declared that 18 American tech giants, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet, are "legitimate targets for attack" on the grounds that they provide technology support for U.S.-Israeli military actions.

The cryptographic significance of this news is that: if tech infrastructure becomes a target, the potential disruption risk to the computing supply chain and global cloud services will rise—and the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network just finds a new "purpose for existence" within this narrative framework. This logic has not yet been fully reflected in the price, but it is worth placing in the long-term observation horizon.

Morgan Stanley quietly launched a low-fee Bitcoin ETF yesterday, with a fee significantly below the market average. This is another signal that traditional Wall Street asset management giants are continuing to "move closer" to Bitcoin. During this window period while the market awaits the war's conclusion, institutional product placements have been quietly advancing.

Today's Focus: Market Aftershocks Post Trump’s Speech, April 6 Countdown

Last night at 9 PM, Trump delivered a nationally televised address from the White House

In his evening speech, Trump announced that Iranian President Pezeshkian had officially requested a ceasefire from the U.S., marking Iran's closest diplomatic gesture to direct contact thus far. The content of the speech is being digested by the market, and today’s trading will be the first window to price in the speech's content.

There are three key points to watch: first, whether Trump provided a new conditional framework; second, whether the IRGC issued a rebuttal statement; third, whether there has been any change in the actual traffic situation of the Strait of Hormuz.

Today's Data Calendar

Today's (April 2) economic data is relatively dense: ISM Manufacturing PMI (March), ADP Private Sector Employment Report (March). These two data points, along with the non-farm employment numbers (March) set to be released on Friday, will jointly outline the true intensity of the U.S. labor market impacted by the war.

In February, non-farm employment dropped by 92,000, one of the worst monthly figures since the pandemic began. Whether March's data rebounds will be a key signal determining the Fed's policy path—also an important link in determining "how much this war has cost the U.S. economy."

April 6 Deadline: The Final Window

The deadline set by Trump for strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure is April 6, only four days away. Regardless of the speech's content, this date will become the main axis of market fluctuations over the next four days.

The current situation is: ceasefire negotiations have received new public signals, but the Strait of Hormuz has still not returned to normal traffic, and the IRGC continues to issue confrontational stances externally. This war stands at a real crossroads, where neither direction is purely good news or bad news for the market. However, for the market, the cost of one direction is likely to be much less than the other.