On the final day of March, bitcoin navigated another volatile session, oscillating between $66,200 and a peak just around $68,500 before retracing to sub-$66,000 levels during the morning session. As has been the case recently, bitcoin’s price action remains tethered to geopolitical developments in the Middle East; headlines suggesting a potential ceasefire have fueled intermittent rallies, while threats of escalation continue to exert downward pressure.

Since Monday of last week, market sentiment has been particularly sensitive to President Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding negotiations between Washington and Tehran. However, on Tuesday, a Wall Street Journal report indicating Trump’s willingness to pause military operations provided a synchronised boost to both traditional risk assets and bitcoin. Overtures from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, suggesting a readiness to engage in talks, also contributed to the market rebound.

Market data reveals that after bottoming at $65,926, bitcoin commenced an ascent that culminated in an intraday high of $68,517 by 1:15 p.m. EST. This surge briefly pushed bitcoin’s market capitalization above $1.37 trillion, a 2.2% increase within a 24-hour window. The heightened volatility triggered $157 million in liquidations across leveraged positions, with short bets on the top cryptocurrency accounting for the lion’s share at $93 million.

Meanwhile, bitcoin’s almost last-minute recovery positioned it to close March in the green, marking a decisive reversal from the double-digit declines witnessed in January and February. This marginal monthly gain has bolstered the narrative that the asset has established a local bottom, sparking optimism that the second quarter could see a return to the record highs last seen at the start of the year.

Some observers, such as Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, expect this rebound to gain momentum in April, even as geopolitical uncertainty persists. Zhang noted that bitcoin and stablecoins remain vital channels for regional capital flight, maintaining a relatively low correlation to traditional assets while providing ample room for institutional accumulation. This underlying demand remains structurally supportive despite the headline-driven turbulence.

However, according to Zhang, “a meaningful de-escalation will likely act as a catalyst for broader risk assets by easing oil prices and reducing inflationary pressure, allowing sidelined capital—particularly stablecoin liquidity—to re-enter the market.”

Zhang also highlighted the relatively low leverage currently present across the crypto ecosystem as a constructive indicator for the month ahead.

“A more balanced setup suggests that upside potential now outweighs downside risk in the near term,” Zhang noted. “Against this backdrop, bitcoin is expected to trade within a $60,000 to $84,000 range through April, with progress on geopolitical stability and sustained institutional inflows acting as the primary drivers toward the upper end of that corridor.”

• What drove bitcoin’s volatility in late March? Geopolitical headlines from the Middle East kept price swings sharp.
• How did Trump’s stance affect markets? Reports of his pause on military action lifted both bitcoin and risk assets.
• What were the key trading levels? Bitcoin ranged between $65,926 and $68,517, briefly topping $1.37T in market cap.
• What’s the outlook for April? Analysts expect a $60K–$84K range, with upside tied to stability and institutional inflows.

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