Bitcoin’s Monday rally hit a wall of geopolitical reality. After an aggressive morning ascent that saw the premier digital asset climb from the $65,000 floor to a peak above $68,000, momentum evaporated. Prices retreated to the $66,000 level as the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East fueled concerns of a protracted, multiyear conflict.

By 1:40 p.m. EST, bitcoin was hovering near $66,800, clinging to a modest 0.9% 24-hour gain. Despite the rebound, bitcoin remained nearly 6% lower over the past seven days and about 12% below its March 17 peak of $76,013. Still, the leading cryptocurrency appeared on track to close March with gains, following double-digit declines in both January and February.

This latest surge lifted bitcoin’s market capitalization to nearly $1.34 trillion and contributed to a 1.1% increase in the broader crypto market, bringing its total capitalization to $2.38 trillion.

Meanwhile, the top cryptocurrency’s rapid price swings triggered the wipeout of millions of dollars in leveraged positions. According to Coinglass data, nearly $100 million in longs and $58 million in shorts were neutralized. Total liquidations reached $253 million for bulls and $140 million for bears, totaling nearly $400 million in forced exits.

As reported by Bitcoin.com News, bitcoin’s morning bullishness was largely speculative, driven by updates from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding potential ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran. However, the optimism was short-lived as Tehran again quickly dismissed claims of direct negotiations with the U.S.

Skepticism deepened after Trump threatened to target Iranian power plants, suggesting the U.S. government is not sanguine about the prospects of a diplomatic breakthrough. The fading hopes for a resolution have heightened fears that shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will continue. The longer the channels stay closed, the higher the odds of the global economy slipping into a recession.

Already, market participants have pivoted their focus to the April 3 nonfarm payrolls report, viewing it as a critical diagnostic of the war’s domestic fallout. After February’s contraction of 92,000 jobs, investors are scouring the data for clues on how deeply the conflict—and the resulting energy shock—has hollowed out the U.S. economy.

A second consecutive weak print, layered over energy-driven inflationary pressures, could provide the definitive signal that the economy is not just cooling but sliding into a stagflationary trap faster than the Federal Reserve can pivot.

For bitcoin, the narrative of the geopolitical hedge is facing a harsh reality check. While the initial fog of war in early March provided a brief speculative boost, the final week of the month has dismantled the safe-haven thesis. In fact, bitcoin’s lockstep retreat last week alongside the Nasdaq appeared to reaffirm its status as a high-beta, risk-on asset.

• Why did bitcoin’s rally stall on Monday? Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East erased early momentum, pulling prices back near $66,000.
• How has bitcoin performed in March so far? Despite volatility, it remains down 6% weekly and 12% from its March 17 peak but is still on track for monthly gains.
• What impact did the price swings have on traders? Rapid moves triggered nearly $400 million in liquidations across long and short positions.
• What broader economic risks are investors watching? Concerns over energy shocks, shipping disruptions, and U.S. jobs data point to rising stagflation fears.

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