The final week of March is shaping up to be a volatile one, with the FTX Recovery Trust set to distribute $2.2 billion to creditors on Tuesday and the key U.S. monthly nonfarm payrolls statistic due Friday, when many equity markets worldwide will be closed for Good Friday.

The war in the Middle East, now in its fifth week, is also critical. The conflict has disrupted major energy infrastructure and transport in the region, in turn leading to higher inflation expectations and a meaningful shift in monetary policy expectations, Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, told CoinDesk.

“Bitcoin, a highly reflexive and liquidity-sensitive asset, typically responds earlier to shifts in risk appetite and has repriced lower since October 2025,” Deans said. “This suggests that digital assets began reflecting tighter financial conditions ahead of many traditional risk assets.”

Global macro forces, he added, remain the primary drivers of risk sentiment. While liquidity will certainly play a role, the market backdrop remains fragile given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • March 30: BNP Paribas introduces six cryptocurrency exchange-traded notes.
  • March 31: FTX Recovery Trust to distribute about $2.2 billion to creditors.
  • April 1: BGDLabs officially leaves the Aave DAO.
• Macro
  • March 30, 9:30 p.m.: China NBS Manufacturing PMI for March (Prev. 49.0); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 49.5)
  • March 31, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash for March (Prev. 1.9%); Core (Prev. 2.4%)
  • March 31, 9:00 a.m.: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index YoY for January (Prev. 1.4%)
  • March 31, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. Chicago PMI for March (Prev. 57.7)
  • March 31, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March (Prev. 91.2)
  • March 31, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. JOLTS job openings for February (Prev. 6.946M)
  • March 31, 07:50 p.m.: Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q1 (Prev. 15)
  • April 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change for March (Prev. 63K)
  • April 1, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for March (Prev. 52.4)
  • April 2, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for week ending March 28 (Prev. 210K)
  • April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for March est. 48K (Prev. -92K)
  • April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Unemployment Rate for March est. 4.5% (Prev. 4.4%)
  • April 3, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for March (Prev. 56.1)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 30: Nano Labs (NA), pre-market

Token Events

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Stake DAO CRV and BAL are voting on their bi-weekly gauge to allocate CRV and BAL inflation across various liquidity pools. Voting ends March 31.
  • SuperRare DAO is voting to consolidate its treasury management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially concluding its legacy Network Engagement and Grants programs. Voting ends March 31.
  • Aventus DAO is voting to simplify AVT emissions to a flat daily rate, increase the node staking requirement, and replace ongoing fees with an upfront appchain token allocation. Voting ends March 31.
  • Unlock DAO is voting to transfer 3 ETH to its Base multisig to swap for USDC to cover current and future operational expenses. Voting ends April 2.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting to elect nine multi-sig signers, maintain a 5-of-9 signature threshold, and set their quarterly compensation at $1,000 paid in GHST. Voting ends April 2.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting across two proposals to transition its Code of Conduct and Procedures into living documents managed by OpCo, and to upgrade to ArbOS 60 Elara. Voting ends April 2.
  • SSV Network DAO is voting across two proposals to integrate ENS names for core protocol contracts to enhance security against phishing, and to establish a soft fee floor for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting ends April 3.
  • Lisk DAO is voting to test the Degov.ai governance platform ahead of Tally's shutdown by executing a 0 LSK transfer. Voting ends April 7.
• Unlocks
  • April 1: SUI$0.8814 to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply worth $38.29 million.
  • April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 2.18% of its circulating supply worth $16.05 million.
  • April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.66% of its circulating supply worth $379.31 million.
• Token Launches
  • March 30: BASED token generation event to occur.
  • March 31: edgeX (EDGE) token generation event to occur.
  • March 31: WorldLand (WL) to be listed on KuCoin, Gate, and others.
  • April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased exchange listing period after the token generation event.

Conferences

• March 29–31: Tokenize! LATAM 2026 (San Juan, Puerto Rico)
• March 30 - April 2: EthCC (Cannes, France)
• March 31- April 1: Chainalysis Links (New York City)
• April 2: Pragma Cannes 2026 (Cannes, France)
• April 3–5: ETHGlobal Cannes 2026 (Cannes, France)