In the week of March 25, Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and EY-Parthenon, four institutions using different methodologies, coincidentally raised the probability of an economic recession in the United States over the next 12 months to above 30%. Moody's indicated 48.6%, EY-Parthenon 40%, JPMorgan Chase 35%, and Goldman Sachs 30%.

This matter itself is more important than any specific number.

Four Lines Rising Simultaneously

Moody's Analytics' machine learning model provided the highest reading. According to a Fortune report on March 25, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi stated that this figure would only be 15% in December 2024, rising to 42% by the end of 2025, jumping to 49% in February this year, with the latest computation result at 48.6%. Zandi predicts that the next round of data will likely push this number over 50%. The benchmark recession probability typically ranges between 15% and 20%, and the current reading is nearly three times the normal level.

Goldman Sachs' path is similarly steep. According to Fortune, Goldman Sachs' forecast for December 2024 was 15%, adjusted to 20% in January this year, raised to 25% on March 12, and had reached 30% by March 25. The rhythm of doubling in two weeks is rare in Goldman Sachs' historical forecasts. Goldman Sachs also raised its PCE inflation forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, lowered its full-year GDP growth forecast to 2.1%, and pushed back its first interest rate cut expectation from June to September.

JPMorgan Chase Global Research gave a figure of 35%. According to a CNBC report on March 19, JPMorgan Chase economists simultaneously lowered the S&P 500 year-end target from 7500 points to 7200 points, potentially falling to 6000 points in extreme scenarios.

EY-Parthenon was the last among the four to speak up, but the 40% probability provided carried an interesting qualifier. According to a World Oil report on March 24, EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco defined the current situation as a "multi-dimensional disturbance," noting that the shocks are not limited to crude oil supply but also affect refining systems, LNG infrastructure, and fertilizer supply chains. This means that even if oil prices retreat, inflationary pressures will not dissipate concurrently.

Historical Win Rates of Oil Price Shocks

All four institutions share a common variable in their core assumptions: oil prices. Since the U.S. launched strikes against Iran on February 28, Brent crude oil has risen from about $70 per barrel, breaking $100 on March 8 (the first time in four years), and touching $115 last week. As of March 25, it closed at $102.22.

According to the IEA March report, the Strait of Hormuz previously passed about 20 million barrels of crude oil daily, accounting for roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade. Following the outbreak of conflict, oil production in Gulf countries has been cut by at least 10 million barrels per day. Zandi estimated in an interview with Fortune that about one-third of the world's fertilizer supply also passes through this route.

This level of energy shock has occurred four times in history.

According to JPMorgan Chase research, among the five major oil price shocks since the 1970s, four triggered recessions afterwards. The 1973 Yom Kippur War led to a 300% spike in oil prices, and by November that year, the U.S. was in recession. The 1979 Iranian Revolution doubled oil prices, and the recession began in January the following year. The Gulf War in 1990 drove oil prices up by 180%, with the recession almost starting simultaneously. The supercycle from 2002 to 2008 saw oil prices cumulatively rise by 592%, ultimately culminating in the global financial crisis.

The current increase from the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis is about 80%, the smallest among the five. However, there is one key difference: this supply disruption is larger than any previous instance. The IEA describes it as "the largest disruption to energy supply since the 1970s energy crisis."

JPMorgan Chase economists provided a quantitative estimate: for every 10% continued rise in oil prices, the drag on U.S. GDP is about 15 to 20 basis points.

Fink's Dichotomy

On March 25, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who oversees assets of over $10 trillion, provided a more direct framework in an interview with the BBC.

According to Fortune, Fink said, "There will be no middle ground; the outcome will surely be one of two extremes."

The first scenario is that Iran is accepted by the international community, re-engages in global trade, oil supply is restored, and oil prices drop to $40 per barrel, leading to global growth. The second scenario is that the conflict continues, the Strait remains blocked for several years, oil prices stay above $100 and even approach $150, leading the world into recession. Fink specifically pointed out that the ripple effect of high oil prices would transmit to agricultural products and fertilizers, as both are by-products of natural gas.

However, Fink also ruled out a possibility, clearly stating that there would be no systemic financial crisis like in 2008, as the current capital adequacy ratios of financial institutions are much higher than they were then.

The Consensus Itself Is a Variable

Returning to the initial question, Moody's uses machine learning models, Goldman Sachs employs macroeconomic forecasting frameworks, JPMorgan Chase tracks five-factor indicators, and EY-Parthenon approaches from a supply chain perspective. Four different methodologies converged on the same direction in the same week.

According to a March survey by the University of Michigan, the consumer confidence index dropped to 55.5, placing it in the historical 2nd percentile. According to BLS data, U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000 in February, contrary to market expectations of an increase of 60,000. Leisure and hospitality dropped by 27,000, healthcare by 28,000, manufacturing by 12,000, and the federal government by 10,000. According to BLS statistics, since peaking in October 2024, federal employment has cumulatively reduced by 330,000, a decline of 11%.

Zandi stated in an interview that if oil prices average around $125 per barrel in the second quarter, "that would push us into recession." At the current Brent level of about $102, there remains a distance of $23 to this line.

The predictions of these four institutions may not be accurate. However, when four institutions arrive at similar conclusions using different methods in the same week, its impact is not just a probabilistic figure. Businesses will delay investment plans, consumers will tighten spending, and these behaviors will in turn suppress economic data, further raising the numbers in the next round of predictions.

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