Summary of the March 2026 Interest Rate Meeting

At the end of today's press conference, Powell clarified that data centers are being established across the United States, and the establishment of these data centers may push up inflation and could raise the neutral interest rate. Therefore, the Federal Reserve does not expect to lower interest rates in the short term; of course, more data is needed to confirm this. Currently, Powell believes that the growth of the U.S. economy is good, and labor levels remain relatively stable. The main reason that allows the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy is still the reduction in inflation.

However, in the short term, whether it is the rising oil prices caused by the war between the United States and Iran, or the rise in commodity inflation brought about by tariffs, these are not issues that can be resolved in the short term. Therefore, it is likely that Powell's main work, at least during his tenure, will be to maintain interest rates. Then there are the usual three things: monitor the data, keep the inflation target at 2% unchanged, and it is unclear what the specific trend will be next.

But this time, Powell clearly stated that while rising oil prices may cause inflation to rise, tariffs may cause inflation to rise, and rising diesel prices may lead to increased costs of living goods, the Federal Reserve is not yet ready to raise interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve already has some ideas and restrictive measures, but it is still too early to disclose them.

Additionally, regarding Powell's view after his term ends, since the investigation is still ongoing, Powell does not plan to leave before the investigation concludes. Furthermore, the investigation may affect the appointment timing of Powell's successor; if no successor is appointed by the end of his term, Powell will continue to serve as the acting chairman of the Federal Reserve. It is unclear whether Trump has shot himself in the foot with this situation. Powell himself does not know if he will still serve as a board member after his term ends.

Overall, my personal feeling is that Powell's response to reporters this time was slightly hawkish. Although he does not believe there will be a possibility of a short-term interest rate hike and thinks the growth of the U.S. economy remains strong, he is very cautious about lowering interest rates. He even emphasized the reasons for not planning to lower rates in the short term at the end, which, of course, is predicted by the risk market. However, Powell's strength may dampen investors' expectations for rate cuts after Walsh takes over.

Additionally, Powell believes that while rising oil prices have some impact on inflation, the effect is limited; the more significant impact on inflation comes from tariffs.

Bitget VIP, lower fees, greater benefits

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。