What to know : Bitcoin's RSI remains overbought after a 15% price rally, with a pullback toward $72,000 likely as a level of support begins to form. BTC and ether futures show rising open interest and long bias, while options markets lean slightly bearish on bitcoin and SOL shows weaker positioning. Memecoins and smaller tokens led declines, even as the broader “altcoin season” indicator holds near the year's highs, suggesting risk appetite remains intact.
Bitcoin consolidated Tuesday after hitting $76,000, the highest level since Feb. 4, in early trading. The largest cryptocurrency fell back to just below $73,500, down 1.5% since midnight UTC.
It's not the only cryptocurrency to have cooled. Ether (ETH) lost 1.5%, solana (SOL) dropped by 2.5% and 4.5%.
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures, in contrast, rose by 0.6% despite oil trading above $100 per barrel and the war in Iran continuing to rage.
Despite the decline in crypto markets, the average relative strength index (RSI) remains firmly in "overbought" territory, suggesting further drops toward $72,000 may be on the cards.
However, such a move would resemble a period of consolidation after bitcoin rose by more than 15% from $65,000 since March 8.
A bounce between $72,000 and $74,000 would indicate a fresh level of support being formed, potentially serving as a platform for an ascent to above $80,000.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has increased 2% to a three-week high of 685.2K BTC. This, coupled with positive cumulative volume delta (CVD), indicates a bias for bullish long bets.
- Ether's futures activity also exhibits bitcoin-like bullishness.
- SOL's market is flashing mixed signals. An upswing in OI is accompanied by negative funding rates and near-zero CVD, indicative of a bearish tinge.
- ADA and BCH stand out with slight declines in OI, a sign of capital outflows.
- Options traders seem more bearish on bitcoin than ether. On Deribit, bitcoin puts expiring in the near-term trade at a greater premium to calls than ether puts.
- Volatility strategies such as straddles dominated bitcoin block flows. Ether traders chased call spreads and straddles.
- In BTC's case, two of the most popular options positions are the $60,000 put and the $75,000 call. Volatility picked up early Tuesday as prices neared $75,000.
Token talk
- The altcoin market suffered a deeper pullback than the major cryptocurrencies since midnight, with some corners of the market dropping more than 5% after a ferocious rally on Monday.
- CoinMarketCap's "altcoin season" indicator remains at 49/100 — its highest point since the turn of the year — reflecting risk-on altcoin sentiment.
- The U.S. president-themed memecoin TRUMP lost more than 6% of its value over the past 24 hours as traders locked in profits from last week's "gala luncheon" announcement.
- There was a similar tumble for pepe (PEPE) after the frog-themed memecoin led the broader crypto market with a move to the upside on Monday.
- The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) has been the worst performing benchmark over the past 24 hours, losing around 1% while the CoinDesk 80 (CD80), an index made up of a wide array of altcoins, is up by 1.35%.
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