The crypto market is on the cusp of a major breakout as bitcoin BTC$73,685.87 trades at $73,000 and ether (ETH) at $2,250, its highest level since Feb. 4.

If bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, can break above $74,000 on convincing volume, it will likely run back to $80,000, which was a level of support in November before an eventual breakdown in January.

A rejection, on the other hand, would lead to a reversion to a trading range between $62,000 and $72,000, which has persisted for more than a month.

But the main story on Monday is not among crypto majors, it is the altcoin market and memecoins in particular.

PEPE rose by around 20% in the past 24 hours, while BONK and PENGU are also up by double digits. However, "overbought" conditions on the average relative strength index (RSI) suggest a pullback may be in store before any breakout.

Oil remains inflated at above $106 per barrel despite the U.S. reportedly considering a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route.

U.S. stock futures are up around 0.5% and crypto-related companies are advancing in pre-market trading. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) was recently 3% higher and Circle Internet (CRCL) added 5%. Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) gained 4%.

Precious metals fell and the dollar weakened, reflecting risk-on sentiment.

Derivatives positioning

• Industry-wide futures open interest has risen over 8% to $112.34 billion in 24 hours in a sign of increased risk-taking in the market.
• Open interest (OI) in ether (ETH) and ADA$0.2896 futures increased by 16% and 19%, respectively, leading the growth among major cryptocurrencies. This indicates strong investor preference for smart contract tokens. OI in bitcoin rose more than 5%.
• In ether's case, OI in coin terms climbed to 14.34 million ETH, the most since September 2025.
• There are signs of speculation in non-serious tokens such as DOGE$0.1015: Open interest tied to the cryptocurrency has jumped over 11%.
• The growth in OI in most major tokens is accompanied by positive perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume deltas. This combination indicates a rising demand for bullish leveraged plays.
• On Deribit, however, puts tied to bitcoin and ether continue to trade pricier than calls across all time frames. That's a sign of continued demand for downside hedging despite the market bounce. Overhead call selling could be another reason for the persistent put premium.
• In XRP's case, the $1.40 strike call and put are the most popular, cumulatively boasting a notional open interest of $14 million. That's nearly 25% of the total XRP options open interest on the exchange.

Token talk

• The altcoin market is in a jubilant mood with the "altcoin season" index hitting 48/100, the highest in just over two months.
• The total crypto market cap excluding bitcoin reached $1.1 trillion on Monday, adding around $40 billion in the past 24 hours and $10 billion since midnight UTC, according to TradingView.
• The best-performing CoinDesk benchmark over the past 24 hours has been the Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC), which is made up of ETH, SOL, ADA and SUI among layer-1 networks. The SCPXC is up by 6.3%, closely followed by the Memecoin Index (CDMEME), which has risen by 5.2%.
• AI-focused token bittensor (TAO) lost 3.7% since midnight. This is a consolidation move rather than a decline after it surged by more than 69% from March 8 to March 15.
• It appears some of those profits are being rotated into another AI project, FET$0.2052, which has benefitted from a 60% increase in daily trading volume to $195 million, with the token rising by 11% as a result.