What to know : Bitcoin broke decisively above the $74,000 level after multiple failed attempts, leading a broad crypto rally that saw ether, solana and other major tokens post their strongest weekly gains since before the war. Signs of de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, including limited reopening to commercial shipping and softer rhetoric from Iran, eased oil prices and weakened the dollar, improving liquidity conditions for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. With risk appetite returning and altcoins outperforming bitcoin, investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 meeting, where the dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's comments will shape expectations for potential rate cuts.
Bitcoin broke through the $74,000 resistance zone that it had rejected four times in two weeks, and this time the move has more behind it than a short squeeze.
The largest cryptocurrency was trading just above $74,000 on Monday morning, up 2.9% over the past 24 hours and 9.7% on the week. Ether surged 7.7% in 24 hours and 14.3% on the week to $2,261, its strongest weekly performance in months. Solana jumped 5.6% on the day and 12% on the week to $93.
Dogecoin hit $0.10 for the first time since early March, up 4.6% daily and 10.6% weekly. BNB gained 3.8% to $683 with a 9.5% weekly gain. XRP rose 4.2% to $1.47, up 8.9% over seven days.
The catalyst was a shift in tone from multiple directions at once. Trump said the U.S. was talking to Iran, though Tehran denied requesting talks or a ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz was only closed to ships from "enemies," a notable softening from the blanket closure that had been in effect.
Two tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas to India sailed through the strait on Sunday, the first commercial transit since the war began.
Oil reflected the change in mood. Brent traded around $104 after earlier climbing as high as $106.50 following the Kharg Island strikes, but pulled back as the Hormuz headlines hit. WTI dropped below $100. The dollar weakened 0.3%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.5%, set for their first gain in five days. MSCI's global equity gauge stabilized after three days of declines.
For crypto, the combination of easing oil, a weaker dollar, and even a hint of de-escalation is the exact macro cocktail that loosens the liquidity chain that has been choking risk assets since the war began.
The weekly numbers are the most impressive since before the war. Bitcoin's 9.7% gain is strong but the altcoin outperformance is the signal that risk appetite is genuinely returning. When ether outperforms bitcoin by 4.6 percentage points and solana outperforms by 2.3 points on a weekly basis, capital is rotating down the risk curve rather than hiding in bitcoin.
The Fed meeting on March 17-18 arrives with different context than it had a week ago.
Oil is still elevated but the Strait of Hormuz showing signs of reopening changes the inflation calculus. The dot plot and Powell's press conference on Wednesday will determine whether the market's rate cut hopes survive or get crushed.
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