Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

Editor: Hao Fangzhou

Recently, Mysten Labs CEO evan.sui shared his views on the "bear market." He mentioned that he does not endorse the saying "bear markets are good, keep building." In fact, the bear market is not "great," and wrapping it up as beneficial for everyone ignores the real costs (such as discouraging builders and users). Many retail investors and talented teams will face cash flow breaks and have to withdraw, ultimately harming the long-term development of the crypto industry.

However, the evidence from data does not align with this viewpoint. A report released by Lattice VC in October 2024 shows that at that time, over 80% of crypto startups that announced seed round financing during the 2022 bear market were still in the process of building. In other words, if project teams can ensure that personnel and funding are relatively stable, the bear market can indeed be more conducive to project construction and development. The reason might be that during the bear market, project teams focus more on product development and experience optimization; or perhaps the bear market helps develop various survival skills for the project teams. In any case, those ambitious project teams in the crypto bear market may be able to find their own development path and survive against the odds.

In light of this, we will explore potential employment tracks and project directions during this cycle through a series of articles titled "Cryptocurrency Bear Market Startup Guide." If there are indeed crypto projects that emerge and grow rapidly as a result, Odaily Planet Daily also welcomes project teams to discuss collaboration.

Today, let’s first discuss the current hottest potential startup direction apart from prediction markets—the pre-market price difference in cryptocurrency stocks.

The Real Demand for Cryptocurrency Pre-market: Platform Differentiation and Liquidity Bridges

As a bridge connecting the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets, cryptocurrency trading platforms have attracted significant attention and active participation from crypto project teams. Major global securities platforms, including Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange, are also entering this space, hoping to capture incremental market opportunities while further activating liquidity in traditional financial markets.

In addition, it's not just listed cryptocurrency concept stocks that have undergone stock tokenization and on-chain contract transformations. Numerous hot concept stocks that have not yet conducted an IPO have also received strong interest from both the crypto market and traditional financial markets, leading to the emergence of several pre-market stock tokenization trading platforms.

Considering that this year, the capital market is about to witness a surge of IPOs from a series of AI model companies, commercial space companies, prediction market platforms, and crypto exchanges such as OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX (xAI), Kalshi, Polymarket, OKX, and Kraken, it is undoubtedly clear that 2026 is destined to be a "big IPO year."

Against the backdrop of the overall cryptocurrency market fluctuating with occasional rebounds, while the stock market is on an upward trend, the heat of the pre-market trading market further supports this viewpoint — there is strong demand for pre-market trading of hot concept stocks in both the crypto and traditional financial markets.

This is the main reason why trading platforms like PreStocks, Jarsy, and Tessera are emerging. Additionally, compared to traditional financial market pre-market trading markets like Hiive and Nasdaq Private Market, the trading methods, purchase limits, and entry thresholds in the crypto pre-market trading market are much more flexible, with relatively high premiums contributing to enthusiastic participation from users.

However, just as the same token can have varying price differences across different exchanges, before the introduction of mechanisms similar to oracles in the pre-market trading market, we can clearly see that there are certain price differences for the same underlying stocks across the different platforms mentioned above, regardless of the reasons.

Based on the above information, we can boldly make a judgment — the crypto market still lacks one or more "bridge platforms between cryptocurrency pre-market trading markets."

This could be an essential step forward in promoting the tokenization of stocks and the tokenization of pre-market trading, encompassing both traditional finance and crypto market pre-trading in a unified comprehensive platform.

Next, we will take the recent examples of the two leading prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, which are seeking $20 billion in funding, and SpaceX (xAI), which is valued at $12.5 trillion, to discuss the feasibility and real demand of this "startup direction."

Comparing PreStocks, Jarsy, and Tessera Pre-market Price Differences: Maximum Price Difference Rate Exceeds 50%, with Price Differences Approaching $150

Kalshi Pre-market Price Difference: Up to $148, Price Difference Rate Approximately 37%

Taking the Kalshi pre-market trading market as an example, its prices on different platforms are as follows —

On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price for stock tokens is around $397; (compared to $369 a month ago discussed in "Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Hit New Highs, What is a Reasonable Pre-market Stock Price?" (https://www.odaily.news/zh-CN/post/5209330), this has increased by nearly $30, with a growth rate of 7.6%)

On the Jarsy platform, the pre-market price for stocks is around $545. (Compared to $504 referenced in the same article a month ago, this has increased by more than $40, with a growth rate of 8.1%)

In other words, the pre-market price of Kalshi stocks shows a price difference of up to $148 across the two major trading platforms (Odaily Planet Daily notes: Considering that the two platforms adopt order book trading mechanisms and on-chain liquidity token trading mechanisms respectively, we are making an abstract comparison here, without involving specific asset transfer forms, the same applies hereafter). If calculated using the pre-market trading platform Hiive's $360 price in the traditional financial market, the pre-market price difference could even reach $185.

Polymarket Pre-market Price Difference: Up to $94, Price Difference Rate Exceeds 50%

Taking the Polymarket pre-market trading market as an example, its prices on different platforms are as follows —

On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price for stock tokens is around $186 (Odaily Planet Daily note: a 30-day increase of 23%);

On the Jarsy platform, the pre-market price for stocks is around $280.

In other words, the pre-market price of Polymarket stocks shows a price difference of around $94 across the two platforms, with a price difference rate of approximately 50.5%.

SpaceX (xAI) Pre-market Price Difference: Approximately $75, Price Difference Rate 12.7%

Taking SpaceX (xAI) as an example, its prices on different platforms are as follows —

On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price for stock tokens is around $666 (Odaily Planet Daily note: a 30-day increase of 4.1%);

On the Tessera platform, the pre-market price for stock tokens is reported at about $591 (Odaily Planet Daily note: a 30-day increase of approximately 14.5%).

In other words, the pre-market price of SpaceX stocks shows a price difference of about $75 across the two platforms, with a price difference rate of approximately 12.7%.

In summary, based on the existing pre-market trading platforms, it may be possible to build a cryptocurrency pre-market price difference market, which, after having enough pre-market tokens or pre-market equity capital, satisfies the trading demand and speculation needs of the market.

Of course, considering that the current market liquidity is still at the level of millions of dollars, the main business model of this platform may stay focused on trading fees, LP fees, and the realization of price differences relating to the platform's own investment quotas.

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