What to know : Bitcoin has risen about 8.5% this week and more than 13% since the Middle East conflict escalated, outperforming tech stocks, gold and US equities. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded roughly $1.3 billion in net inflows so far in March, potentially marking the first positive month for flows since October.
Bitcoin is on track to close its strongest week since September 2025, rising about 8.5% and trading above $71,000.
The move stands out relative to other major assets.
Over the past week, bitcoin has begun to diverge slightly from the broader market. Using BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as a five-day proxy, IBIT is up roughly 3.5% and approached a one-month high on Friday.
In contrast, iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (IGV), gold and U.S. equities all trended lower as the week progressed. This suggests bitcoin is starting to lose its strong correlation with software and tech, at least in the short term.
The divergence comes as bitcoin started to diverge from its traditional counterparts. Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, over two weeks ago, bitcoin has gained roughly 13%, outperforming traditional risk assets and safe havens alike. Over the same period, IGV has risen about 3%, while gold has fallen around 6%, and U.S. equities have also posted losses.
On a monthly basis, the asset is up about 7% so far in March, which would mark its first positive month since September. That rebound follows five consecutive negative months in which bitcoin declined as much as 50% from its October all-time high.
The buyers of the largest digital asset appear to be U.S., as institutional demand from the region appears to be gradually returning. US spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $1.3 billion in net inflows so far in March, putting them on track for their first month of net inflows since October.
However, the divergence doesn't mean that bitcoin is completely out of the woods yet.
The market sentiment remains extremely cautious. The crypto fear and greed index has stayed in “extreme fear” territory. At the same time, perpetual futures funding rates remain negative. Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between traders in perpetual futures markets to keep contract prices aligned with the spot market. When funding rates are negative, short sellers pay long positions, indicating that bearish positioning is dominant and traders are willing to pay to maintain short exposure.
While it may not mean bitcoin is all-clear to take off, it does show that investors aren't pricing it as a purely risk asset anymore.
As CoinDesk analysis showed, the move might just mean bitcoin has potentially become a 24/7 leading indicator of how the overall market might trade in response to a macro event. The Middle East conflict is the perfect example of this, as the price moved before any other asset classes when the war first started. And now, it seems everything else is following its price action, while bitcoin remains steady.
Read more: Bitcoin's recent crash to $60,000 warned stocks first – now they're following
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