Renewed strength in bitcoin relative to U.S. equities is fueling optimism about a potential shift in crypto market sentiment. Coinbase Institutional, part of crypto exchange Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN), shared analysis on social media platform X on March 13, highlighting bitcoin’s stronger performance and improving market participation.

Coinbase Institutional stated:

“This evolving landscape, coupled with BTC’s outperformance against U.S. equities since March, suggests we might be moving past ‘peak pessimism.’”

The post pointed to geopolitical turmoil disrupting traditional markets while bitcoin shows relative strength against U.S. stocks.

Alongside the post, the group shared a chart tracking 90-day rolling z-scores for bitcoin, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite, based on data from Coin Metrics, Tradingview, and Coinbase. A z-score measures how far an asset’s performance deviates from its historical average. The visualization showed bitcoin’s z-score rebounding toward neutral territory by March 2026 after a sharp dip earlier in the year, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq displayed weakening momentum.

Additional points in the thread referenced macroeconomic signals and increased crypto market activity. The division noted that cooling U.S. nonfarm payroll data challenges the narrative of a resilient labor market and could affect risk appetite across global markets.

“An increase in our systematic leverage ratio reflects an improvement in the level of crypto market participation,” the Coinbase Institutional arm detailed, adding:

“However, we remain cautiously optimistic, as we await confirmation of this trend and monitor market participation for signs of a sustained upward movement.”

• Why is Coinbase Institutional discussing peak pessimism in crypto markets?
  Bitcoin’s recent outperformance against U.S. equities in Coinbase Institutional’s analysis suggests sentiment may be stabilizing after a period of extreme bearishness.
• What data indicates bitcoin is outperforming traditional markets?
  A 90-day risk-adjusted z-score comparison shared by Coinbase Institutional showed bitcoin rebounding while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost momentum.
• How could U.S. macroeconomic data affect crypto markets?
  Cooling nonfarm payroll numbers may weaken confidence in the labor market and influence global risk appetite.
• What signal suggests rising participation in crypto markets?
  Coinbase Institutional reported an increase in its systematic leverage ratio, which the firm said indicates growing trading activity.

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