In early March 2026, two pieces of news almost simultaneously appeared on the headlines of technology media. One was that Circle and Stripe were competing to build stablecoin infrastructure for AI agent payment systems, and the other was that USDC processed $1.26 trillion in transactions in February, accounting for 70% of the total stablecoin activity. The headline from Yahoo Finance pointed out the connection between these two events: stablecoin companies are betting that AI agents will become the next trillion-dollar payment market.

This judgment is not unfounded. When OpenAI defined 2026 as the "Year of Personal Agents," and when the founder of NEAR predicted that AI agents would become the main users of the blockchain, a fundamental question emerged: when billions of AI agents begin to trade autonomously on-chain, what will they use to pay? Traditional credit card networks cannot open accounts for machines, the SWIFT system cannot handle micropayments, and banks do not serve algorithms. However, stablecoins—an asset class that was once seen as a trading tool in the crypto market—are becoming the only answer.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire provided his prediction during an earnings call: stablecoins could become the "native currency for machine-to-machine commerce." This judgment redefines stablecoins from being a "safe haven for cryptocurrencies" to being "the foundational currency of the digital economy." Meanwhile, the x402 payment function launched by Stripe on the Base chain has already allowed developers to charge AI agents directly using USDC, with data showing that over 98% of such transactions are indeed settled using stablecoins.

As AI agents begin to "spend money," the "money" they choose is reshaping our understanding of currency. And the significance of this transformation goes far beyond technological payment innovation.

1. AI agents do not have bank accounts, what do they use to pay?

To understand why AI agents need stablecoins, we must first answer a question: when an AI agent purchases services from another AI agent, what does it pay with?

Banks do not open accounts for AI, credit cards are not designed for algorithms, and the SWIFT network cannot handle micropayments between machines. The traditional financial payment system has always served "humans" since its inception—it requires identity verification, credit assessment, and human authorization—all of which are either inaccessible or prohibitively expensive for AI agents.

Yat Siu, chairman of Animoca Brands, stated frankly in a presentation at the end of February: "The currency and transaction systems for agents will shift on-chain, replacing traditional credit cards, using stablecoins or tokenized assets. These assets will have verifiability, instant settlement, and machine readability, allowing for seamless and efficient transactions between agents."

This statement highlights the core of the issue. AI agents need not only "money," but a programmable, instant settlement, low-friction payment interface. Stablecoins just happen to meet these needs: they operate on the blockchain and facilitate instant transfers 24/7; they are programmable and can automatically execute payment conditions via smart contracts; they are price stable and will not cause AI agents' assets to shrink due to market fluctuations while executing tasks.

Illia Polosukhin, co-founder of the NEAR protocol, painted a grander picture in an interview in early March: "The users of the blockchain will be AI agents. AI will be at the front end, while the blockchain will exist as the back end. The goal is to make your AI hide the whole blockchain—we actually have the fact that we own a blockchain explorer as a failure because we haven't abstracted this technology."

In his vision, future AI agents will interact directly with blockchain protocols, autonomously completing payments, managing assets, and coordinating services. Human beings will only need to converse with the AI, telling it "help me book a flight" or "vote on that proposal," and the rest will be completed on-chain by the agent. Throughout the process, humans will not feel the existence of the blockchain, but every transfer of value will occur on-chain and settle using stablecoins.

This is not science fiction. The x402 payment function launched by Stripe in February on the Base chain has already allowed developers to charge AI agents directly using USDC. According to data from Dune Analytics, as of early March, the trading volume of the x402 protocol on the EVM chain was about $25.81 million, with 98.6% of transactions settled using USDC. The situation on the Solana chain is similar, with USDC accounting for as much as 99.7% of the trading volume. This means that in the AI agent payment scenarios that have already occurred, stablecoins have almost become the only choice.

2. From $1.8 trillion to licensing, the evolution path of stablecoins

If the demand from AI agents has opened up future possibilities for stablecoins, then the evolution of market scale and regulatory landscape provides real support for this vision.

First, let’s look at a set of data. According to statistics from Artemis and DeFiLlama, in February 2026, the on-chain transfer volume of stablecoins reached a record $1.8 trillion, a 22% increase from $1.47 trillion in December 2025. What does this number represent? It is equivalent to about 1.8% of the global GDP, surpassing the annual economic output of most countries. Among them, USDC performed exceptionally well, with a monthly transfer volume of about $558 billion, accounting for 31%, a noticeable increase from 24% a year ago. Analysts attribute this change to the clear preference of institutional participants for compliant dollar infrastructure.

Circle's own data also confirms this trend. In 2025, Circle's revenue reached $2.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64%. Bernstein recently gave Circle a "market outperform" rating with a target price of $190, calling it a long-term winner in the sector. Circle completed $68 million of inter-account cross-settlement among eight internal entities within 30 minutes using USDC, while the same operation via traditional bank wire transfer would take 1 to 3 days. CEO Jeremy Allaire revealed that this process fulfilled about 90% of the company's internal transfer settlements in a single day.

Now let’s look at the regulatory aspect. In March 2026, the world’s three major economies almost simultaneously released key signals.

In Hong Kong, Financial Secretary Paul Chan clearly stated at the end of February that Hong Kong has implemented a licensing system for fiat stablecoin issuers and will issue the first batch of licenses in March. According to reporters from Caixin, HSBC, Standard Chartered, and local virtual asset trading platform OSL have been mentioned, although the relevant institutions have yet to respond formally, an insider from one foreign bank revealed that they are "still waiting for official news from the regulators." According to the "Stablecoin Regulations" published in 2025, stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong must operate with a license, and stablecoins must be backed by high-quality reserve assets on a 1:1 basis and disclose information regularly. This means that stablecoins have officially entered Hong Kong's regulated financial system.

In the United States, the OCC proposed a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, providing a federal legal basis for compliant issuance and circulation of stablecoins. The EU’s MiCA Act has already set a clear regulatory path for stablecoins. The simultaneous construction of regulatory frameworks by the three major economies marks a turning point for stablecoins from the "gray area" to "institutionalized operation."

The changing competitive relationship between Circle and Stripe reflects the impact of this institutionalization. For a long time, Circle was responsible for "producing money"—mapping real-world dollars onto the chain to mint USDC; Stripe was responsible for "moving money"—embedding stablecoins into real business scenarios through a global payment network. The division of labor was clear and mutually complementary. However, as the stablecoin market evolves from a crypto tool to financial infrastructure, this balance is being disrupted. Circle has begun to extend upstream, launching the Arc L1 blockchain, the cross-chain transfer protocol CCTP, and the Circle Payments Network, trying to build a complete stablecoin payment network; Stripe is penetrating downstream, acquiring Bridge for $1.1 billion, co-developing the Tempo L1 settlement chain with Paradigm, and directly entering AI agent payment scenarios through the x402 feature.

When stablecoins become infrastructure, whoever controls the flow of funds can define the rules. The competition between Circle and Stripe is a manifestation of this logic.

3. Two Circulations, One Heartbeat: How Stablecoins Connect the Digital and Real Worlds

If we use a metaphor to understand the role of stablecoins in digital civilization, the "circulatory system" may be appropriate. It has two circulations: one is the "internal circulation" within the digital world, and the other is the "external circulation" connecting the virtual and real economies.

The picture of internal circulation is taking shape. According to RWA.xyz data, as of March 2026, the on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, has surpassed $25 billion, a nearly fourfold increase from about $6.4 billion a year ago. Six major asset categories—US Treasury bonds, commodities, private credit, institutional alternative investment funds, corporate bonds, and non-U.S. government debt—each have on-chain scales exceeding $1 billion. The issuance, trading, and settlement of these RWAs largely rely on stablecoins as a medium of value. Meanwhile, the rise of the AI agent economy is creating new demand. According to data from x402scan.com, as of early March, the global x402 ecosystem had surpassed 163 million transactions, with over 435,000 buyer AI agents and over 90,000 seller AI agents. On an AI agent social platform called Moltbook, the number of AI agents has approached 2.85 million, nearly 2.4 times the 1.2 million at launch a week ago. These AI agents provide services and exchange value with each other, and stablecoins are the most commonly used settlement tool among them.

The logic of external circulation is equally clear. Stablecoins introduce external fiat capital into the digital world through compliant issuance and redemption. Taking Hong Kong's upcoming issuance of stablecoin licenses as an example, stablecoins issued by licensed institutions must meet the 1:1 reserve requirement, meaning that every stablecoin is backed by an equivalent asset in dollars or Hong Kong dollars. When investors purchase stablecoins using fiat currency, the funds enter the digital world; when they convert stablecoins back into fiat currency, the funds flow back into the real economy. In this process, stablecoins serve as a "converter," allowing funds to flow freely between the virtual and real.

The tokenization of RWAs further strengthens this cycle. When a business tokenizes its receivables or property assets and issues them on-chain, investors subscribe using stablecoins. After the business receives stablecoins, it exchanges them for fiat currency to support operations—this completes a full cycle of funds flowing from the real to digital and back to real. JPMorgan's processing of billions of dollars in tokenized collateral repurchase transactions through the Kinexys platform, BlackRock's launch of the BUILD tokenized fund on Ethereum, and Franklin Templeton's migration of the U.S. government money market fund FOBXX to the Solana public chain—these maneuvers by traditional financial giants are essentially building pipelines for stablecoins to connect the virtual and real economies.

4. Visible Trends, Invisible Risks

Any technological revolution comes with both opportunities and risks, and the evolution of stablecoins is no exception.

First, regarding boundaries. In mainland China, according to the joint issuance of Document No. 42 by eight departments, "the conduct of RWA tokenization and related services is strictly prohibited within the territory," and overseas businesses must comply with record-keeping requirements. This means that the application scenarios of stablecoins discussed in this article are occurring under overseas compliance frameworks and do not constitute any guidance or advice for domestic operations. For businesses and investors in mainland China, it is necessary to pay attention to global trends and understand technological logic, but any cross-border business must be cautiously pursued within regulatory red lines.

Challenges also cannot be overlooked. Security risks are the primary concern—whether the reserve assets held by stablecoin issuers are transparent, whether there are vulnerabilities in the smart contracts, and whether cross-chain bridges are secure are all directly related to the safety of funds. Compliance risks follow closely—global regulatory landscapes are still in a state of divergence, and a stablecoin that is compliant in one jurisdiction may face restrictions or even bans in another. Market risks are also objectively present—while stablecoins claim to be "stable," history has shown that de-pegging events can and do occur, and in extreme cases, liquidity exhaustion can lead to difficulties in redemptions.

So, what do these trends mean for different types of decision-makers?

For executives of financial institutions, stablecoins are reshaping the underlying logic of cross-border payments, cash management, and future business settlements. The launch of Hong Kong's stablecoin licenses is a noteworthy window: the compliance practices of licensed institutions, how they connect with the traditional financial system, and the actual efficiency of cross-border capital flows will all provide references for future strategic layouts of financial institutions.

For strategic decision-makers at tech companies, the integration of AI agents and stablecoins might become the next competitive battleground. If your company is developing AI agent products, have you reserved a stablecoin payment interface? When agents pay third-party service providers, do they support automated, low-cost on-chain settlements? These questions may become competitive barriers for products in the next year or two.

For investors, the strategic value of stablecoin infrastructure providers needs to be reassessed. Circle, Stripe, and financial institutions deeply engaged in compliance ecosystems are becoming key builders of the "circulatory system" of digital civilization. At the same time, risk identification is equally important—the compliance risks brought about by global regulatory divergence, operational risks from technological security, and profitability risks from market competition all need to be integrated into the investment decision-making framework.

In March 2026, when OpenClaw developers wrote in their update log, "We have fixed more issues than we created; this is progress," they may not have realized that this sentiment also applies to the evolution of the entire digital civilization. Stablecoins have moved from being trading tools in the crypto market to becoming the "native currency" for AI agents, and now to forming the circulatory system connecting the virtual and real economies, with each step accompanied by the resolution of issues and the exploration of boundaries. This process is far from over, but the direction is clear—in the era when AI agents begin to "spend money," stablecoins are becoming their most handy tool and an indispensable infrastructure for digital civilization.

When your company begins to deploy AI agents, are you ready to open "bank accounts" for them?

(Data sources for this article include Caixin, RWA.xyz, Artemis, DeFiLlama, Dune Analytics, x402scan.com, with data as of March 12, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice, and the overseas cases mentioned do not apply to the regulatory framework in mainland China.)

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