U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., has introduced a new bill restricting prediction markets from allowing traders to bet on war, terrorism and death. The legislation, formally titled the Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems (DEATH BETS) Act, would explicitly prohibit listing or clearing contracts that reference violent conflict or the loss of human life.

While current federal law gives the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) some authority to block contracts deemed contrary to the public interest, the DEATH BETS Act seeks to remove that discretion and codify a total ban. The bill specifically targets contracts based on any agreement referencing military strikes, invasions or terrorist acts. If passed, it would outlaw contracts tied to the targeted killing of political figures or leaders, as well as any wager that correlates to the death of a specific person.

The legislation follows a chilling surge in market activity centered on the mortality of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As traders poured capital into contracts speculating on the ageing leader’s death, the “ghoul pool” nature of these wagers ignited a firestorm on Capitol Hill.

Beyond the moral outcry, these platforms have been increasingly dogged by allegations that participants are leveraging non-public intelligence to game the system, prompting a bipartisan call for immediate federal intervention.

“Betting on war and death creates an environment in which insiders can profit off of classified information, our national security is jeopardized, and violence is encouraged,” Schiff said in a statement. “Congress must act.”

Critics and lawmakers have grown increasingly alarmed by the susceptibility of “death bets” to manipulation and exploitation. Proponents of the bill point to a high-profile incident where traders on a prediction platform reportedly netted nearly $1 million by wagering on a U.S. military strike just hours before it was launched—a timing overlap that raised immediate red flags regarding the leak of classified intelligence. This concern is not merely theoretical; recently, two individuals in Israel were indicted on charges of profiting from similar classified information.

The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, which oversees the CFTC. Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif., has championed the effort in the House, arguing that the current system lacks the necessary safeguards to prevent people from “making money off the deaths of American service members.”

While some proponents of prediction markets argue they provide valuable crowdsourced intelligence and forecasting data, the DEATH BETS Act argues that the ethical and security risks far outweigh any analytical benefit.

The introduction of the bill marks a significant step in the ongoing debate over how to regulate the rapidly evolving prediction economy, where almost any real-world event can now be turned into a tradable asset.

• What is the DEATH BETS Act? The DEATH BETS Act, introduced by U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff, aims to prohibit betting on war, terrorism, and death in prediction markets.
• Why is this legislation being proposed? This bill addresses concerns that betting on violent events encourages profiteering from classified intelligence and jeopardizes national security.
• What specific contracts would be banned? It would outlaw contracts tied to military strikes, invasions, or the death of specific individuals, including political leaders.
• What has prompted this legislative action? A surge in speculation on the mortality of high-profile figures, such as Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, raised ethical alarms and highlighted manipulation risks.

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