What to know : William Blair said Circle’s outperformance reflects USDC market cap stability and rising appreciation for its infrastructure business. The bank argued stablecoins are poised to transform cross-border payments, with USDC well positioned as a standard. Circle’s payments network and infrastructure stack could help defend against fragmentation as more firms explore issuing stablecoins.
Circle (CRCL) has recently outperformed other crypto-linked equities, a move investment bank William Blair said reflects more than shifting macro conditions.
“It is tempting to ascribe recent strength to surging oil prices and perhaps a more hawkish Fed,” wrote analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury in a Thursday note to clients.
“We think there is more at play, however, including USDC market cap resilience despite a crypto drawdown and growing appreciation of Circle's economic model and stablecoin infrastructure leadership," the analysts said.
The bank reiterated its outperform rating on the stock, arguing the rally, which has lifted shares roughly 126% from a February low, reflects improving sentiment toward stablecoin infrastructure rather than short-term market noise.
The shares were 1.2% higher at publication time, trading around $114.20.
Crypto-linked equities have broadly tracked, and often amplified, the recent downturn in digital assets, with shares of exchanges, miners and crypto-treasury companies falling as bitcoin retreated from its late-2025 highs.
Stocks such as Coinbase (COIN) and other crypto-exposed firms have typically moved in tandem with digital asset prices, reflecting the sector’s tight linkage to trading volumes and token valuations, and in some cases declining even more sharply than the underlying assets during market stress.
Japanese bank Mizuho said in a report last week that part of Circle’s rally may be tied to the recent surge in oil prices following escalating tensions in the Middle East. Higher crude prices could stoke renewed inflation concerns, the bank said, potentially dampening expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
William Blair analysts said investors had previously been too bearish on Circle amid regulatory uncertainty and expectations for interest rate cuts. Now, the firm sees signs that the market is beginning to recognize the company’s core thesis: stablecoins could become a key layer of global payments infrastructure.
USDC could emerge as one of a handful of dominant standards in cross-border commerce, citing its liquidity, first-mover advantage and integration across crypto networks, according to the analysts.
The report also pointed to growing activity across Circle’s payments and infrastructure stack, including its stablecoin payments network, as evidence that the market for stablecoin-based settlement is beginning to take shape.
While other companies and tech platforms have floated launching their own stablecoins, the report said Circle’s minting, cross-chain transfer and payment orchestration infrastructure could provide a durable competitive moat as the sector develops.
Read more: How the war in Iran and trader positioning could be behind the surge in Circle's stock
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