What to know : Senator Adam Schiff has introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which would explicitly ban prediction market contracts tied to terrorism, war, assassination and individual deaths. The bill would remove the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's discretion over such contracts by prohibiting any CFTC-registered exchange from listing them, including those closely correlated with a person's death. Schiff's proposal, backed by forthcoming companion legislation in the House, directly challenges CFTC Chair Mike Selig's move toward looser regulation of prediction markets after the agency scrapped a broad ban on political betting.
Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) has introduced proposed legislation that would ban prediction market contracts tied to terrorism, war, assassination, and death, directly challenging market regulator CFTC's shift toward looser regulation of event trading.
The bill, dubbed the DEATH BETS Act, would strip the agency of discretion over whether to permit such contracts and write explicit prohibitions into law, putting Schiff on a collision course with CFTC Chair Mike Selig's deregulatory agenda.
Schiff, a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee that oversees the CFTC, is positioned to press the issue legislatively as the agency's new rule making takes shape.
Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC already has authority to block contracts tied to war, terrorism, or assassination if it determines they are contrary to the public interest. But enforcement hinges on the regulator's judgment, meaning the scope of protection shifts with agency leadership.
Schiff's bill would eliminate that flexibility. It would prohibit any CFTC-registered exchange from listing contracts that involve, relate to or reference terrorism, assassination, war or an individual's death. The prohibition extends to contracts that could be "construed as correlating closely" to a person's death, a notably broad standard.
"Betting on war and death creates an environment in which insiders can profit off of classified information, our national security is jeopardized, and violence is encouraged," Schiff said in a statement. "There is no justification for gambling on lives, or public benefit to be derived by such a market."
Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) will be introducing companion legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a release from Schiff's office.
The proposal arrives as the CFTC, under Selig, rewrites its approach to regulating prediction markets.
In February, the agency withdrew a 2024 proposal that would have broadly banned political prediction markets, with Selig criticizing the earlier effort as regulatory overreach.
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